07/26 MINN at KC : LVSC has spoken- 7.5 total...they're giving us one

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  • chrisharvard01
    Restricted User
    • 10-24-08
    • 2943

    #1
    07/26 MINN at KC : LVSC has spoken- 7.5 total...they're giving us one
    As we end a fantastic weekend of basball, two offensive thriving teams will meet tomorrow at 8pm.



    I know it takes a lot of will power to resist the earlier games, but this play my friends, is solid.


    We are looking at streaking OVER teams. the TWINS are coming off a win when each team member contributed a hit vs BALT.


    KC is coming off a road trip where they cashed 2 OVs, a push, and an UND. The lowest total was 9 which was busted wide open, a huge part due to KANSAS CITY.


    KANSAS CITY has a great offensive batting avg, yet have a pitching staff that has an avg of a 4.97 ERA. Scoring runs isn't their problem. Pitching is. Lucky for me, I like totals-- not the royals.


    GREINKE has not proven himself, as he has a horrible career record v the TWINS, despite being one of their better pitchers.

    LIRIANO gets the nod for the TWINS... am I the only one not impressed by this guy? He's a lefty, for one. Quite simply I think at any given game this guy can get shelled.

    It does not take an MLB bettor to know the TWINS hit their asses off. I can go on all day about OVs on their part. It takes two to tango... and I see two tango-ing tomorrow night, to the bank.



    I have no idea who wins this game, and neither does the LVSC. The line is pretty much EV on this. I expect slugging from both teams. I see a 7-6 win.

    Simply put, either team can nearly cash this OV, alone.












    Current weather conditions at time of writing is partly cloudy, 77 degrees with 5mph winds from the east.




    Over is 3-0-2 in Twins last 5 games as a road underdog.
    Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 during game 1 of a series
    Under is 4-1 in Twins last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter
    Over is 4-1 in Lirianos last 5 starts on grass.
    Over is 4-1 in Lirianos last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
    Over is 4-1 in Lirianos last 5 starts overall.
    Under is 4-1-1 in Lirianos last 6 starts as a road underdog

    Over is 33-16-2 in Royals last 51 vs. American League Central.
    Over is 4-0-1 in Greinkes last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
    Over is 6-0 in Greinkes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
    Under is 9-1 in Greinkes last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    Over is 5-1 in Greinkes last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
    Under is 4-1 in Greinkes last 5 starts as a favorite
    Under is 4-1 in Greinkes last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
    Under is 4-1 in Greinkes last 5 starts overall






    MINN/KC OV 7.5 (+105)




    GL
  • Jon825
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-06-10
    • 744

    #2
    thats a hell of a lot of analysis for a baseball over under. GL tho hope it pays off for you.
    sbr
    Comment
    • chrisharvard01
      Restricted User
      • 10-24-08
      • 2943

      #3
      thanks jon
      Comment
      • limitation
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 01-25-09
        • 747

        #4
        Good stuff man. But don't you think Greinke has ace quality and can potentially shut down the Twins offense?
        Comment
        • 2daBank
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-26-09
          • 88966

          #5
          sounds solid, not really trying to do any work on games tonight as im a little buzzed up, do know Grienke is not the same guy as in the past and not sure he warrants such a low total...kc's problem is actually driving the runners in, i have no doubt they will get on base for you...do you think id be in danger of it moving up to 8 if i waited till mourning to look into it?
          Comment
          • chrisharvard01
            Restricted User
            • 10-24-08
            • 2943

            #6
            banker, dont think you need to move on it now. i think the public perspective is both pitchers will deliver gems... if anything the line moves to 7 -120
            Comment
            • 2daBank
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-26-09
              • 88966

              #7
              Originally posted by chrisharvard01
              banker, dont think you need to move on it now. i think the public perspective is both pitchers will deliver gems... if anything the line moves to 7 -120

              sounds good bro, i will look at it sometime by mourning....gl
              Comment
              • kidkonggolf
                SBR MVP
                • 01-27-10
                • 1260

                #8
                Thanks for the good analysis....BOL!
                Comment
                • No coincidences
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 01-18-10
                  • 76300

                  #9
                  KC's coming home from a trip to NYC, and Minnesota's been on the road for a while as well. Without DeJesus, the Royals' lineup has been significantly weakened.

                  Thing that worries me about an over here is one of these cats could easily throw a gem, which would require 6-7 runs out of the other team. I'm not playing it, but BOL!
                  Comment
                  • gamble
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-30-10
                    • 1087

                    #10
                    i like the analysis, good luck i may be on it as well
                    Comment
                    • dolphan34
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 04-09-10
                      • 423

                      #11
                      Got on the under myself. Both teams flying in from the east coast. Dejesus out for the Royals hurts a lot. And most importantly two solid pitchers.
                      Comment
                      • tatddy
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 03-02-10
                        • 10779

                        #12
                        Under, Royals win a close low scoring game.
                        Comment
                        • paco
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 05-07-09
                          • 62873

                          #13
                          Goodluck.

                          Great insight.
                          Comment
                          • ChicagoCover
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 07-11-10
                            • 661

                            #14
                            Good luck!!

                            KC is coming off a road trip where they cashed 2 OVs, a push, and an UND. The lowest total was 9 which was busted wide open, a huge part due to KANSAS CITY.
                            Uhmm, sir. They played the yankees in the smallest baseball stadium in the world. Good luck though
                            Comment
                            • Mr Windy City
                              Restricted User
                              • 12-27-09
                              • 5018

                              #15
                              Nice write up, good luck on the under. This will most likely go to 7 as it has now peaked at -130 on the under at pinnacle. Royals can hit lefties, I lean towards them in this one.
                              Comment
                              • chrisharvard01
                                Restricted User
                                • 10-24-08
                                • 2943

                                #16
                                Originally posted by chrisharvard01
                                banker, dont think you need to move on it now. i think the public perspective is both pitchers will deliver gems...
                                if anything the line moves to 7 -120

                                wow, called that line movement.

                                now it's time to call the game! there will be no push for me tonight!!


                                going out to the grocery, gonna grill some chilli dogs and drink corona before the game starts.


                                GL!
                                Comment
                                • SprtsCapnGuru
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-16-10
                                  • 1386

                                  #17
                                  Weather is questionable tonight in KC....could get some thunderstorms, not that has an effect, but could make for a long night of waiting if it does hit the K!...I really like Greinke getting a run and a half to start the game....either way...hope that over hits for ya.
                                  Comment
                                  • gushman
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 04-12-10
                                    • 507

                                    #18
                                    On the over 7
                                    Comment
                                    • chrisharvard01
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 10-24-08
                                      • 2943

                                      #19
                                      Comment
                                      • chrisharvard01
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 10-24-08
                                        • 2943

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by tatddy
                                        Under, Royals win a close low scoring game.

                                        Comment
                                        • 2daBank
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-26-09
                                          • 88966

                                          #21
                                          looking good brother...Grienke has done this way to much this year to be getting tons of respect.....at risk of jinxing your last 2 runs good call
                                          Comment
                                          • HoulihansTX
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 02-12-09
                                            • 30566

                                            #22
                                            Comment
                                            • chrisharvard01
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 10-24-08
                                              • 2943

                                              #23





                                              something about +money winners... gotta love it.

                                              Comment
                                              • khaden
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-19-09
                                                • 1864

                                                #24
                                                Why can't they always be this easy
                                                Comment
                                                • paco
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 05-07-09
                                                  • 62873

                                                  #25
                                                  Great call Chris.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • VTranX
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-02-10
                                                    • 1975

                                                    #26
                                                    Nice one.
                                                    Comment
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