Grumpy MLB 2010 plays

[I.L.S]

[QUOTE=WiseGrumpy;5980941]5 units to win 5.25 units

8/19/10 1:05pm MLB Baseball 965 Detroit Tigers +1½ +105* vs New York Yankees (R Porcello - R must Start P Hughes - R must Start)

2.5 units to win 5.5 units

8/19/10 1:05pm MLB Baseball 965 Detroit Tigers +220* vs New York Yankees (R Porcello - R must Start P Hughes - R must Start)

Nice i like DET with +1½.
GL GRUMPY!

[SolidDala]

HIt him hard today mate! Have a play that was the first that just said take me on the board! Will look into your plays in a bit. I am taking under 4.5 FF in SD/CHC:

Latos is Latos. Zambrano do well against SD with a 6-2 record in 10 starts at 2.71 ERA. He is also a LOT more stronger at home! Reason for FF is the Cubs bullpens after Zambrano steps a side, He has avg just 6 innings against SD and therefor I like FF better, even if its a lot more chalky!

[WiseGrumpy]

Solid play Solid. GL mate!
Waiting for a nice pic

[SolidDala]

Was out building a party-tent...pic coming up buddy.. Zambranos having some problemos good for you, a bit scary for my under.. still in a good spot though

[SolidDala]

[WiseGrumpy]

A little more solid ... I don't want to jinx it so I won't say more.

[WiseGrumpy]

5 units to win 13.3 units

3 Team Parlay
8/19/10 8:05pm MLB Baseball 959 New York Mets/Houston Astros Under 9 -145* (P Misch - L must Start B Norris - R must Start)
8/19/10 7:10pm MLB Baseball 970 Boston Red Sox +1½ -225* vs Los Angeles Angels (E Santana - R must Start J Beckett - R must Start)
8/19/10 8:10pm MLB Baseball 972 Minnesota Twins 1st 5 Innings +½ -200* vs Chicago White Sox (M Buehrle - L must Start C Pavano - R must Start)

[peterpan19]

dont know whats wrong with the KC game, but to me it seems they shoul win today, Davies pitched very well in July and August... bats are ok too...not even a small play?

[WiseGrumpy]

dont know whats wrong with the KC game, but to me it seems they shoul win today, Davies pitched very well in July and August... bats are ok too...not even a small play?

He is pitching very well and if I had to bet a side in that game I would go with KC.

Solid congratz!

[WiseGrumpy]

5.75 units to win 5 units

8/19/10 7:05pm MLB Baseball 955 Florida Marlins/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8½ -115* (A Sanabia - R must Start P Maholm - L must Start)

[WiseGrumpy]

[GTeater]

5.75 units to win 5 units

8/19/10 7:05pm MLB Baseball 955 Florida Marlins/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8½ -115* (A Sanabia - R must Start P Maholm - L must Start)

I'm on with you. BOL to us!

[jayson311]

Took em all with grumps. Most money on the line for me today ever. Bol

[SolidDala]

He is pitching very well and if I had to bet a side in that game I would go with KC.

Solid congratz!

Both winners in that game

[SolidDala]

Laying off tonight and walking away with an 1-0 record for the day... May the night be good to you all gents!

[WiseGrumpy]

Considering the fact two very big bets lost, this day was ok ...

Summary:
Plays: 6-9
Parlays: 0-1
MONSTER: 1-2
Units: -12.85
Streak (Winning\Losing days): W2

Total:
Plays: 236-211-16
Parlays: 13-28
MONSTER: 11-7
Units: +65.4

[GTeater]

Why didn't I take the nats today

[WiseGrumpy]

BET #19

41.7 units to win 30 units
8/20/10 8:10pm MLB Baseball 926 Minnesota Twins -139* vs Los Angeles Angels (D Haren - R must Start B Duensing -L must Start)

15 units to win 22.5 units
8/20/10 8:10pm MLB Baseball 926 Minnesota Twins -1½ +150* vs Los Angeles Angels (D Haren - R must Start B Duensing -L must Start)

[WiseGrumpy]

15 units to win 19.1 units
8/20/10 8:10pm MLB Baseball 909 San Diego Padres +127* vs Milwaukee Brewers (W LeBlanc - L must Start Y Gallardo - R must Start)

[Full Time Hobo]

Good Luck Grump

[WiseGrumpy]

Good Luck Grump

Thnx mate, nice avatar.
This will be my 2nd biggest bet of the season if we combine both bets on the Twins.

[jpot34]

Thnx mate, nice avatar.
This will be my 2nd biggest bet of the season if we combine both bets on the Twins.

Wow WG! That's alot of quid. What's your record on huge bets like this?

[WiseGrumpy]

2.5 units to win 4.52 units
8/20/10 7:05pm MLB Baseball 920 Baltimore Orioles +181* vs Texas Rangers (C Wilson - L must Start J Arrieta - R must Start)

5 units to win 5.25 units
8/20/10 7:05pm MLB Baseball 920 Baltimore Orioles +1½ +105*vs Texas Rangers (C Wilson - L must Start J Arrieta - R must Start)

[WiseGrumpy]

Wow WG! That's alot of quid. What's your record on huge bets like this?

In two years 12-2 (40 unit bet or more) one of the loses were the WhiteSox not too long ago.

[jpot34]

In two years 12-2 (40 unit bet or more) one of the loses were the WhiteSox not too long ago.

Man, nice record! GL mate!!

[WiseGrumpy]

BET #20

23.45 units to win 17.5 units
8/20/10 10:05pm MLB Baseball 929 Tampa Bay Rays -134* vs Oakland Athletics (J Hellicks - R must Start V Mazzaro - R must Start)


5 units to win 6 units
8/20/10 10:05pm MLB Baseball 929 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +120* vs Oakland Athletics (J Hellicks - R must Start V Mazzaro - R must Start)

[WiseGrumpy]

12.5 units to win 12.5 units
8/20/10 7:05pm MLB Baseball 905 Washington Nationals/Philadelphia Phillies Over 8 +100* (J Marquis - R must Start R Halladay - R must Start)

[WiseGrumpy]

13.12 units to win 12.5 units
8/20/10 8:15pm MLB Baseball 911 San Francisco Giants/St Louis Cardinals Under 8 -105* (M Bumgarner - L must Start J Westbrook - R must Start)

[WiseGrumpy]

Twins -139:


Twins are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Twins are 8-2 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss.
Twins are 4-0 in Duensings last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Twins are 7-1 in Duensings last 8 starts as a favorite.
Twins are 5-1 in Duensings last 6 home starts.

Angels are 1-4 in Harens last 5 starts.
Angels are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

This will be a VERY big bet for me today. The Twins lost a rare home lose yesterday and still need to stay strong if they want the title. Today with the VERY solid Duensing against Haren that is terrible on the road they should do just that.
Haren hasn't won on the road since May 6 at Houston, going 0-4 with a 6.39 ERA in his last seven starts away from home. On the other side Duensing has a 1.42 ERA at home this year.

Check my thread for the bet size.

* MONSTER play.

Padres +127:


Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 road games.
Padres are 10-1 in their last 11 overall.
Padres are 5-0 in LeBlancs last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Padres are 6-1 in LeBlancs last 7 starts vs. National League Central.

Brewers are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. National League West.
Brewers are 1-5 in Gallardos last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

When I get the Padres as a dog, I will bet on them almost everytime. The Pads are playing the weak Brewers and yes they are playing against they ace, but after beating the Cubs after a great pitching game by Z they will face almost the same situation. A weak team with their ace on the mound on the road, they should do the job and keep of of their best season yet. The only thing that might worry me is the fact LeBlanc gets very poor run support, but as long as he pitches like his last two games, he will be just fine.

Orioles +1.5 +105 Orioles +181:


This bet is a PURE math bet. I had this bet yesterday and it cashed big time. Today again against a VERY good Texas pitcher but that doesn't matter. The O's at home since they got the new manager are playing this champs, all their starters are way better since, and the O's OWN Texas this season. So there is nothing to say here, you place the bet, you take advantage of the price, and if you lose, you are still up from yesterday's bet big time.

Rays -134:


Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
Athletics are 0-7 in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Athletics are 0-4 in their last 4 Friday games.
Athletics are 0-4 in Mazzaros last 4 starts.

Even though the Rays are one of the two best teams in the league, I didn't bet them much at all this season, but I LOVE this spot for the Rays. They will have the amazing Rookie on the mound pitching his last game as a starter this season. He is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA and went at least 6 innings in each of these games. The Rays will face the A's that are having some very solid games lately but they will have one of those pitchers that we have in teams like the A's that pitch very well but has no run-support. Mazzaro is 0-2 despite a 2.37 ERA and the A's lost all his last 4 starts. The A's did well against the Rays this season as home, but the Rays are HOT and they can't cool off because they have the hardest competition and need every win.

* MONSTER play.

Phillies Vs Nats OVER 8 +100:


Over is 5-0 in Marquis' last 5 starts overall.
Over is 7-1 in Phillies last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings.

With the fact that ALL 9 meeting between the teams this season went over, we have three important factors; Halladay gets a lot of run support, the Phillies score a lot of runs and Marquis gives up a lot of runs. I think 10 should have been the total for this one, so I will happily take this price.

Cards Vs Giants UNDER 8 -105:


Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 5-0 in Bumgarners last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 4-0 in Bumgarners last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-0 in Bumgarners last 4 starts overall.
Under is 5-1 in Bumgarners last 6 starts as an underdog.

Under is 4-1-1 in Cardinals last 6 overall.

Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

This bet looks a little too good to be true, but I will take it. The Cards are hitting VERY poorly and the Giants usually don't put up a lot of runs on the road. With that we have two very solid pitchers that aren't too stable lately, but they should give a good game with everything that both teams have on the line. With that all three meeting this season went well UNDER and unless the Cards wake-up big time, this game won't have more than 5 runs.

Rockies +114:


This bet was placed only because of my theory: Important trend - Alternating wins
To add to that the price is great on the better team against a team that is struggling at home.

Tigers Vs Indians OVER 9 -120:


Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 overall.
Over is 8-2 in Tigers last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 9-0 in Galarragas last 9 Friday starts.
Over is 4-0-1 in Galarragas last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Over is 4-1 in Indians last 5 overall.
Over is 8-0 in Mastersons last 8 starts during game 1 of a series
Over is 13-3-1 in Mastersons last 17 starts as an underdog.

Let's add to that the fact both teams can score runs and it's pretty easy to score runs against them. Both have a weak pen and the Tigers game laltely are simply crazy.
Galarraga, 0-3 with a 4.73 ERA in seven home starts since his near-perfect game against the same Indians. Masterson has gone 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA in two career starts against the Tigers.
Should be easy.

[SolidDala]

Like the over in PH/WAS mate! I will take the over in FF for this game when the line comes out! Have looked into HOU/FLA UNDER 8 and think this will be a bet of mine.

I like the numbers going for O's, Wilsons that is .. can't take them to win two in a row against TX after that hurting 4 game swep last time.

[WiseGrumpy]

Like the over in PH/WAS mate! I will take the over in FF for this game when the line comes out! Have looked into HOU/FLA UNDER 8 and think this will be a bet of mine.

I like the numbers going for O's, Wilsons that is .. can't take them to win two in a row against TX after that hurting 4 game swep last time.

Part of being good at this line work is working on pure math, for example yesterday's bet on the O's which I hit. Might seem odd, against one of the best starters Texas has, but the price was right and the history was right, same for this bet.
I also think that anyone that will bet against the Phillies will make a good bet, win or lose, just because of the insane price the Phillies got.

Anyway as always, love your opinion and GL!

Try to get me a nice pick for my Twins pick, it's a big one.

[WiseGrumpy]

5 units to win 5.7 units
8/20/10 9:40pm MLB Baseball 913 Colorado Rockies +114*vs Arizona Diamondbacks (E Rogers - R must Start I Kennedy - R must Start)

[SolidDala]

ain't playing the under in Florida. I am however taking MARLINS -150 as my second bet, i see some great stats for this bet. This will be my plays today.. best of luck with your BIG bet buddy, will post some picks for it

[SolidDala]

[Popular]

GL on your plays today