Psychology, July 11th and bad teams on the road

[mighty maron]

My thinking gets me in trouble at times. I tend to relate patterns or possible behavior on my own viewpoint. Case in point..July 11th is the Sunday before the MLB all star game. I would equate that with New Years Eve of the MLB season. After a long break, anything is possible. Efforts will be doubled after the All-Star break akin to a New Years Resolution.

Now I tend to really slack the last days before making a new push...view it as a reward, or something like that. So I looked at the schedule to see what bad teams are on the road July 11 and more focus on the later games.

The three games that interest me are
1. Cle at Tb afternoon start
2. Balt at Texas 3 pm EST start
3. Cubs at LAD 8pm EST start

I can not see CLE, Balt, or the Cubs really giving a crap about this last game before the break. Am I wrong about this? What do you think?

In the end Im going to put money on each game, but would love to hear what you think

[hhsilver]

My thinking gets me in trouble at times. ............

Am I wrong about this?

yes , you are wrong ( or at least overthinking the situation).

[mighty maron]

30 units on LAD ML -143
10 units on lad -1 1/2 +150

20 units on Tex - 1 1/2 -135

[DrStale]

Interesting thought process, BOL.

[og4667]

I think I will be cautious today also. Not sure what type of effort you will get from any team. My fav today is the dodgers.

[curious]

My thinking gets me in trouble at times. I tend to relate patterns or possible behavior on my own viewpoint. Case in point..July 11th is the Sunday before the MLB all star game. I would equate that with New Years Eve of the MLB season. After a long break, anything is possible. Efforts will be doubled after the All-Star break akin to a New Years Resolution.

Now I tend to really slack the last days before making a new push...view it as a reward, or something like that. So I looked at the schedule to see what bad teams are on the road July 11 and more focus on the later games.

The three games that interest me are
1. Cle at Tb afternoon start
2. Balt at Texas 3 pm EST start
3. Cubs at LAD 8pm EST start

I can not see CLE, Balt, or the Cubs really giving a crap about this last game before the break. Am I wrong about this? What do you think?

In the end Im going to put money on each game, but would love to hear what you think

Yes you are wrong. Here is what happens with teams that really stunk up till the all star break, assuming that they have some decent players and a decent coaching staff/management.

EVERYONE knows they stink so everyone fades them and the lines get out of proportion for the fav they are playing. You start seeing +200 and +300 lines.

If the team has a lot of young players they are finally at the stage where they are starting to play as a team.

The coaching staff is making changes that actually work.

The team still stinks but it doesn't stink at the +200 and +300 level. And the team starts winning games that they "shouldn't" win.

You have to be REALLY careful of bad teams right before and right after the all star break.

Last year just after the all star break the Indians starting pitching all had 2 or 3 brilliant games. I'm not sure why, pitching coaches maybe? Then of course they went back to their old habits. If you were betting the OVER when these terrible pitchers started just after the all star break (as I was) you got killed.

[curious]

July 11 2009

o:team o:line o:runs runs team line
Yankees 100 8 14 Angels -110
Nationals 145 13 2 Astros -155
Dodgers -110 3 6 Brewers 100
Cardinals 165 2 5 Cubs -175
Marlins 110 1 5 Diamondbacks -120
Padres 215 1 2 Giants -255
Rangers 100 1 4 Mariners -110
Reds 130 0 4 Mets -140
Blue Jays -115 3 4 Orioles 105
Pirates 200 7 8 Phillies -240
Athletics 170 7 2 Rays -190
Royals 160 9 15 Red Sox -170
Braves 110 4 3 Rockies -120
Indians 120 5 4 Tigers -130
White Sox 110 8 7 Twins -120

Road dogs
Nationals W
Cardinals L
Padres L
Reds L
Pirates L
Athletics W
Royals L
Braves W
Indians W
White Sox W

road dogs went 5-5

[mighty maron]

curious...thank you so much for taking all that time in drafting your replies to me. I can see the errors in which my thinking were compounded in these bets. I am new to this and once again thank you for sharing your insight and helping me improve and correct a grevious thinking process that I had.

Thank you

[mighty maron]

16 units profit from the two games. I should have just stuck with the Dodgers, but I would not have thought Balt wins two after Tex getting Lee...my thinking does it to me everytime.