Its all about Statistics

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  • flakeandbake
    SBR MVP
    • 06-21-10
    • 3672

    #1
    Its all about Statistics
    The odds a team is swept in a three game series is.. well I don't exactly but it seems that it only happens 2-3 times a week.. maybe 4 and thats really stretching it.

    -Tomorrow a total number of 11 teams are facing a sweep. I like to bet consistently against the sweep and find that it works more often than not, so i figured why not bet against the sweep for all ten games tomorrow bc u can bet your ass that not all 10 will lose. its all about the mathematics

    Lines for teams avoiding sweeps:
    1. Tampa Rays -190 (Rays haven't been swept once this year and r good at home)
    2. Indians +130
    3. Braves -110
    4. Twins +155
    5. Cubs +130
    6. Orioles +100
    7. Blue Jays +120
    8. Tigers +100
    9. Pirates +200
    10. Red Sox -105
    11. Dodgers +130

    Lets say 4 of these teams are swept out of 11, 11/4= 2.75 odd multiplier
    So if you bet 50 on each game and 7 win and 4 loose your looking at about a 140 dollar profit (50 x 2.75=137.5)
    - Seems like a decent theory for guaranteed profit

    2nd of all after taking these 11 games think about betting on Giants
    -Cain (6-5 2.16 ERA vs. Rodriguesz (3-10 6.10 ERA)
    Giants haven't won a series in two weeks and look to take advantage of struggling astros. Rodriguez is 0-2 with a 8.34 era vs Giants and Cain is 1-2 with a 3.9 vs Houston. Based on Stats, Giants look good
  • flakeandbake
    SBR MVP
    • 06-21-10
    • 3672

    #2
    good theory for people who had an of wednesday and are looking to bounce back
    Comment
    • Pauulzcappin
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 04-23-10
      • 20295

      #3
      5 or 6 out of 11 will avoid the sweep, cheers.
      Comment
      • Pauulzcappin
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 04-23-10
        • 20295

        #4
        Texas, Angels, Mariners, PAdres, Mets and MAYBE Mariners will sweep IMHO.
        Comment
        • 2daBank
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-26-09
          • 88966

          #5
          i do this a lot and i agree (dont know the numbers) but more often than not i end up ahead...Sunday it didnt work so well as i think 5 out of 9 ended up swept and some were minus money, should have been great then a few shit teams blew early leads late and fukked up my winning day.....GL
          Comment
          • cb8720
            SBR Sharp
            • 02-10-10
            • 357

            #6
            Originally posted by Pauulzcappin
            Texas, Angels, Mariners, PAdres, Mets and MAYBE Mariners will sweep IMHO.
            I think the Phillies will as well.
            Comment
            • Pauulzcappin
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 04-23-10
              • 20295

              #7
              I think Carmona gets it done
              Comment
              • Sawyer
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 06-01-09
                • 7761

                #8
                I'll back all American League teams which playing at home..
                Comment
                • southmadejd
                  SBR MVP
                  • 08-27-09
                  • 1059

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Sawyer
                  I'll back all American League teams which playing at home..
                  Even the Orioles??
                  Comment
                  • Sawyer
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 06-01-09
                    • 7761

                    #10
                    Specially Orioles
                    Comment
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