Trying Out A New System

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  • lovetobet
    SBR MVP
    • 10-06-08
    • 1294

    #1
    Trying Out A New System
    Well I’ve been following other peoples threads on here and figure it’s time to try and contribute. I have been using a system I put together 3-4 years ago that has given me great success in the NFL and moderate success in NHL, NCAAF & NBA. It has absolutely been horrid in NCAAB and MLB. I’ve been tweaking it, again, and have now shown moderate success in the MLB. So I figure it’s time to give it a shot again.

    All bets will be to win 2% of my starting roll, thus all bets for me will be to win $100. This does not change in my system; all bets will be to win $100 unless my roll takes a serious beating.

    The system tends to picks favorites and sometimes big favorites thus I will be utilizing the -1rl approach in games that are very chalky. I will probably utilize a varying approach to what qualifies as “very chalky” but to begin it will be games around and over -150.


    I will have my picks out in a little bit and will track everything for those that would like to watch my success or laugh at my failure.

    I will give a disclaimer now that I work a pretty hour intensive job with a lot of meetings and such and I live on the west coast (which sucks from a capping perspective, since I work a real job), thus there will be days I just can’t get games posted in time. I will track games officially (all games that are listed on time) and unofficially those games that I can’t get listed in time. I am an honest person and would imagine these will reflect a similar win percentage over time. I am choosing today to start because I should be able to get all plays posted on-time over the next 5 days at a minimum.

    I hope this is a profitable and fun adventure, GL to any that tail or fade
  • lovetobet
    SBR MVP
    • 10-06-08
    • 1294

    #2
    2 Plays tonight:

    Red Sox -138 - $138 to win $100 - WIN
    Cardinals -1rl = -139 - $139 to win $100 - WIN

    BOL to everyone
    Comment
    • smcc716
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 04-17-10
      • 983

      #3
      Nice start to your thread! Are you planning on explaining the system in any more detail, or are you just going to post the plays? Either way, good luck for the rest of the season!!
      Comment
      • lovetobet
        SBR MVP
        • 10-06-08
        • 1294

        #4
        Originally posted by smcc716
        Nice start to your thread! Are you planning on explaining the system in any more detail, or are you just going to post the plays? Either way, good luck for the rest of the season!!
        Thanks, yes a solid start . I was joking on another thread that it just gives me further to fall

        To be honest I didn't really plan on trying to explain the system. It's fairly complex and has a lot of steps and filters to it. I'd imagine in a lot of ways it's very similar to a lot of cappers systems in regard to clearing certain hurdles and such. Part of the reason I wouldn't try to explain it is it's a hybrid of a system I originally put together for the NFL a few years ago and have used in all sports and like I said in my opening post it's been pretty inconsistent in MLB and NCAAB so I've been working to change some of the processes to adapt it to winning in MLB. I think it's working this year but it's still a work in process and I am constantly tweaking it to make it better, so I wouldn't necessarily consider it a finished product at this point.

        For now I'll just continue to post plays and hopefully slowly build the roll
        Comment
        • lovetobet
          SBR MVP
          • 10-06-08
          • 1294

          #5
          Originally posted by lovetobet
          2 Plays tonight:

          Red Sox -138 - $138 to win $100 - WIN
          Cardinals -1rl = -139 - $139 to win $100 - WIN

          BOL to everyone
          Jeez, I feel stupid. I totally forgot I need to quote my plays and put the win/loss in the quoted reply or it looks like I went back and edited my picks. Well this is my first thread, so I won't make that mistake again.

          SMCC716 or anyone else that came in and saw my plays before I hit edit to put the colors and "WIN" into the thread, if you wouldn't mind vouching that these were the plays and amounts before I edited them, it would be much appreciated.

          Well live and learn, won't make that mistake again, anyway 2-0, a nice way to start. This system actually saved me on my other plays tonight. Hope all of you did well.
          Comment
          • smcc716
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 04-17-10
            • 983

            #6
            Yeah I can definitely vouch for you! Both those plays were placed much earlier in the evening! Definitely interested to see how things go!
            Comment
            • lovetobet
              SBR MVP
              • 10-06-08
              • 1294

              #7
              Originally posted by smcc716
              Yeah I can definitely vouch for you! Both those plays were placed much earlier in the evening! Definitely interested to see how things go!
              I appreciate that smcc716, hopefully the times on your post and my reply further prove I was on the right side of both plays before I edited.

              Not sure if any games are going to clear the hurdles today, either way I will post whether there are plays or not today.

              Bol to everyone!
              Comment
              • lovetobet
                SBR MVP
                • 10-06-08
                • 1294

                #8
                From quickly running the short set of games we have today through the filters it doesn't look like there will be any plays today. If that changes I will post up, if not I'll be back tomorrow.

                BOL to everyone!
                Comment
                • lovetobet
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-06-08
                  • 1294

                  #9
                  A little more time spent and we have 1 play today:

                  Boston Red Sox -112 - $112 to win $100

                  BOL to everyone!
                  Comment
                  • lovetobet
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-06-08
                    • 1294

                    #10
                    Originally posted by lovetobet
                    A little more time spent and we have 1 play today:

                    Boston Red Sox -112 - $112 to win $100 - LOSS

                    BOL to everyone!
                    Well that was a tough loss, didn't get to watch the game but looking at the stat lines I still like the pick (except for the loss part ). But from the standpoint of judging if the system is making good picks, so far I'd say yes but we'll see where it goes from here, very small sample size so far.

                    BOL to anyone on tonight's games.
                    Comment
                    • lovetobet
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-06-08
                      • 1294

                      #11
                      TGIF and here are the system plays for the day. 2 of the plays that the system likes are big chalk plays so I'm playing them both on the -1rl. The plays are:

                      Red Sox -1rl = -135 $135 to win $100
                      White Sox -1rl = -128 $128 to win $100
                      Rays = +124 $100 to win $124

                      Lets get it. BOL to everyone tonight and have a great weekend!!
                      Comment
                      • lovetobet
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-06-08
                        • 1294

                        #12
                        Originally posted by lovetobet
                        TGIF and here are the system plays for the day. 2 of the plays that the system likes are big chalk plays so I'm playing them both on the -1rl. The plays are:

                        Red Sox -1rl = -135 $135 to win $100 - WIN
                        White Sox -1rl = -128 $128 to win $100 - LOSS
                        Rays = +124 $100 to win $124 - LOSS

                        Lets get it. BOL to everyone tonight and have a great weekend!!
                        Well not the best night with a total loss of -1.28 units on the night and bringing the running average to -.4 units but with no drastic swings hopefully it will turn around and I can start grinding out a profit.
                        Comment
                        • lovetobet
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-06-08
                          • 1294

                          #13
                          System doesn't really like anything today, so I'm laying off.

                          BOL to everyone!
                          Comment
                          • lovetobet
                            SBR MVP
                            • 10-06-08
                            • 1294

                            #14
                            So far 2 early plays:

                            Cincinnati - -104 $104 to win $100
                            SF Giants -1rl - -130 $130 to win $100

                            BOL to everyone!
                            Comment
                            • lovetobet
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-06-08
                              • 1294

                              #15
                              Well 1 win and 1 push earlier, damn Giants giving up their 2 run lead with 2 outs and a 3-2 count, that sucked.

                              But up a unit for the day.

                              Last play of the week:

                              Cardinals -1rl -131 $131 to win $100

                              BOL to everyone!!
                              Comment
                              • lovetobet
                                SBR MVP
                                • 10-06-08
                                • 1294

                                #16
                                Originally posted by lovetobet
                                So far 2 early plays:

                                Cincinnati - -104 $104 to win $100 - WIN
                                SF Giants -1rl - -130 $130 to win $100 - PUSH

                                BOL to everyone!
                                Not as good as I was hoping but +1 unit and back in the positive for the week.
                                Comment
                                • lovetobet
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 10-06-08
                                  • 1294

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by lovetobet
                                  Well 1 win and 1 push earlier, damn Giants giving up their 2 run lead with 2 outs and a 3-2 count, that sucked.

                                  But up a unit for the day.

                                  Last play of the week:

                                  Cardinals -1rl -131 $131 to win $100 - LOSS

                                  BOL to everyone!!
                                  Well not a great week but not horrible either, down .71 units for the week.

                                  To be honest I really don't like what I'm seeing and what certain filters are letting through, so back to the drawing board. I'm going to let the thread die. When/if I work out what I'm not liking and can get consistent positive results, I'll start posting the plays again.
                                  Comment
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