The Firm- Fiasco Gate

[Fiasco]

June 1st marks the start of my season thread.

I've been getting everything in line all season and feel confident enough to post plays now and hopefully beat plenty of closing lines and win lots of moneysss.

I've decided to go ahead and post to 1) keep track of my bets and 2) put a little pressure on me to make logical and smart picks and to not look like a square loser

I know most season threads have started by now but none are as sharp as me

to a great, and profitable season!

[Fiasco]

5 dimes is down so I can't put in my bets but I've been working on my card and have it about ready, just needing to lock in the bets and then I'll post them.

I play at 5 dimes, bet to win 1 unit on favorites and risk 1 unit on dogs. I like betting sides and totals overnight, and then props near game time or during the afternoon.

I'll be going out of town later today (Tuesday) until Wednesday but wanted to get this thread started; hopefully I can post picks and bet on the road but I'm not sure how busy I'll be.

I'm going to go ahead and try to wait out 5 dimes for 20 more minutes or so while I do a brief write-up on my plays. Then I'll just put them in in the morning if they're still down.

[diggnation+TRS]

sites back up now chief

[Fiasco]

Plays are in, write-ups are done. If anything sounds dumb/stupid, it's late and I have to be up early. I probably won't get to writeup plays for Wednesday, as I'll be out of town. Hopefully I'll be able to post them. Anyways, to a profitable first day, and season!
Season Record 0-0-0 (+0 Units)

June 1, 2010

Brewers (Davis) @ Marlins (Nolasco)
I have this capped right at the total of 9.5 runs, so no play on the total. I have the brewers scoring just over 5 runs though, while the Marlins just over 4, for a 1 run advantage in which I play games around PK giving me a solid play on the Brewers here. In all I feel that this line is a bit inflated and there is HUGE value on the Brew Crew. Doug Davis isn’t Ubaldo, but I feel he can hold the Marlins to 3-4 runs and with Ricky throwing for the marlins that should be enough, especially at + odds. Ricky pitched 2 innings against Milwaukee in 2006 and gave up 5 ER. Not too much to be read into there though… I just feel that Ricky should NOT be a -160 favorite… Value on Brew Crew!
Play: Milwaukee Brewers +157 (1 to win 1.57)

Mets (Pelfrey) @ Padres (Leblanc)
I show this being a low scoring affair with 6.29 runs scored, and the Padres getting just under 4 of them (3.7). I show the Mets only getting 2.6 or so off the Padres and think Leblanc gets things back on track today, especially as a home dog.
Play: San Diego Padres +108 (1 to win 1.08)

Diamondbacks (Haren) @ Dodgers (Ely)
Ely has been quite impressive this year and that D-Back pen sucks. Haren has been average at best, and in all I feel the Dodgers at home should be closer to -140 here. I show them scoring 5.7 runs while the diamondbacks only getting 3.5 putting my total closer to 9. I don’t like a total play though with two decent pitchers going, and Haren likely to bounce back and put together a decent outing soon… Oh, and Ethier is BACKKKK and he owns Haren for the most part.
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -124 (1.24 to win 1)

Rockies (Hammel) @ Giants (Zito)
I have the Giants at 5.38 runs scored while the Rockies struggling to get 3. In all I feel this will be a low scoring affair, with the Rockies turning to their bull pen by the 6th inning. I think the Giants will get 3-4 runs early and Zito will throw well enough to get the Win a decent percent of the time, definitely enough to make -131 profitable.
Play: San Francisco Giants -131 (1.31 to win 1)

Angels (Pineiro) @ Royals (Bannister)
I have the Royals scoring 7 runs in this game. Now this is slightly a result of Pineiro’s terrible start on the road, and he’s due to regress… however I also feel that he should NEVER be favored here… Bannister has been solid enough for his team to win in his appearances this year, something that I can’t say for Pineiro. This is a spot that the books are creating value on KC because of the perception that the Angels are way better… this year, that’s not the case though and I see through it. Pineiro’s going to have to prove that he CAN bounce back, on the road, before I think of laying off or playing that side…
Play: Kansas City Royals -101 (1.01 to win 1)

Angels (Pineiro) @ Royals (Bannister)
As I said, I have the Royals scoring 7 runs in the game. If that’s even close to true, the Over will hit. Bannister will give up 2-3 runs, at least, and the bullpen is good for another 1 or 2. Both bullpens suck, in the event that both starting pitchers show up, and in all honesty I think this total will be 9.5 or even 10 by game time. I’m laying a hefty price on the juice tonight, -125, which is why I haven’t locked it in as a Firm Fiasco LOCK. It’s just a one unit play, but one that I feel great about. This is my strongest play today, even though it’s weighted the same as the others.
Play: Angels @ Royals Over 9 -125 (1.25 to win 1)

Rangers (Harden) @ White Sox (Buehrle)
I don’t think Buehrle has been too bad this year, and a relatively cheap price of -125 for the staff Ace seems reasonable against a slumping rangers club. Texas without Cruz is a far less potent offense, especially on the road. Buehrle has been solid against Texas in the past, though not recent, we must remember he CAN dominate any game he’s in. Harden pitched against Peavy earlier this year, and gave up 3 earned in 6 innings pitched, getting a 6-5 victory at home. (at home being the key) Until the Rangers can prove that they can win on the road, I will gladly take an ace like Buehrle against them. All in all I have this game at 5 runs for the White Sox and 4 for Texas, but with those 4 imaginary predictive runs comes the chance of a Buehrle gem
Play: Chicago White Sox -124 (1.24 to win 1)

Twins (Blackburn) @ Mariners (Vargas)
The Twins have been solid recently, and the Mariners have been, well… the Mariners… Blackburn has struggled on the road this year and Vargas has been stellar at home. Blackburn is coming off of 5 quality starts, while Vargas has been pretty much lights out all year, only giving up more than 3 ER on 1 occasion (his first start, at Texas, that team that has an AMAZING offense at home…) I have to think that my numbers are pretty solid in showing Minnesota will struggle to get 3 runs, and Seattle has an excellent chance of putting up 4 runs, as I have them at 4.8 runs. In all, I feel there is a lot of value on the Mariners tonight.
Play: Seattle Mariners -108 (1.08 to win 1)

5 Dimes is down again, looks as though I got my plays in just in time

Good luck to all today

[Smogs]

Nice write ups, always appreciated to get an insight into a cappers mind.

Lot of games getting bet, do you always play big cards?

Good luck tonight

[Fiasco]

Nah, today just turned out to be a huge card.

I usually have quite a few less plays, but the way todays card worked out ended up to be huge... I don't limit the number of bets based on how many I already have, which is why today ended up to be so big . I approach each game as if it were the only game on the card and play the side or total that I feel has value, rather that be no plays in a day, one play, or eight plays. This is actually the first time in a few days that I've had more than two sides... The previous few I've had a 2-3 totals and 1-2 sides.

At worst I'd lose like 9% today, which would be pretty devastating for one day but not ridiculously detrimental on the grand scale of things. My unit is 1% of my bankroll

[CLASSIC ROCK]

good luck!

[Smogs]

Tough night, no idea what happened to Chicago last night, good luck next time

[Fiasco]

Plays are in, write-ups are done. If anything sounds dumb/stupid, it's late and I have to be up early. I probably won't get to writeup plays for Wednesday, as I'll be out of town. Hopefully I'll be able to post them. Anyways, to a profitable first day, and season!
Season Record 0-0-0 (+0 Units)

June 1, 2010

Brewers (Davis) @ Marlins (Nolasco)
I have this capped right at the total of 9.5 runs, so no play on the total. I have the brewers scoring just over 5 runs though, while the Marlins just over 4, for a 1 run advantage in which I play games around PK giving me a solid play on the Brewers here. In all I feel that this line is a bit inflated and there is HUGE value on the Brew Crew. Doug Davis isn’t Ubaldo, but I feel he can hold the Marlins to 3-4 runs and with Ricky throwing for the marlins that should be enough, especially at + odds. Ricky pitched 2 innings against Milwaukee in 2006 and gave up 5 ER. Not too much to be read into there though… I just feel that Ricky should NOT be a -160 favorite… Value on Brew Crew!
Play: Milwaukee Brewers +157 (1 to win 1.57)

Mets (Pelfrey) @ Padres (Leblanc)
I show this being a low scoring affair with 6.29 runs scored, and the Padres getting just under 4 of them (3.7). I show the Mets only getting 2.6 or so off the Padres and think Leblanc gets things back on track today, especially as a home dog.
Play: San Diego Padres +108 (1 to win 1.08)

Diamondbacks (Haren) @ Dodgers (Ely)
Ely has been quite impressive this year and that D-Back pen sucks. Haren has been average at best, and in all I feel the Dodgers at home should be closer to -140 here. I show them scoring 5.7 runs while the diamondbacks only getting 3.5 putting my total closer to 9. I don’t like a total play though with two decent pitchers going, and Haren likely to bounce back and put together a decent outing soon… Oh, and Ethier is BACKKKK and he owns Haren for the most part.
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -124 (1.24 to win 1)

Rockies (Hammel) @ Giants (Zito)
I have the Giants at 5.38 runs scored while the Rockies struggling to get 3. In all I feel this will be a low scoring affair, with the Rockies turning to their bull pen by the 6th inning. I think the Giants will get 3-4 runs early and Zito will throw well enough to get the Win a decent percent of the time, definitely enough to make -131 profitable.
Play: San Francisco Giants -131 (1.31 to win 1)

Angels (Pineiro) @ Royals (Bannister)
I have the Royals scoring 7 runs in this game. Now this is slightly a result of Pineiro’s terrible start on the road, and he’s due to regress… however I also feel that he should NEVER be favored here… Bannister has been solid enough for his team to win in his appearances this year, something that I can’t say for Pineiro. This is a spot that the books are creating value on KC because of the perception that the Angels are way better… this year, that’s not the case though and I see through it. Pineiro’s going to have to prove that he CAN bounce back, on the road, before I think of laying off or playing that side…
Play: Kansas City Royals -101 (1.01 to win 1)

Angels (Pineiro) @ Royals (Bannister)
As I said, I have the Royals scoring 7 runs in the game. If that’s even close to true, the Over will hit. Bannister will give up 2-3 runs, at least, and the bullpen is good for another 1 or 2. Both bullpens suck, in the event that both starting pitchers show up, and in all honesty I think this total will be 9.5 or even 10 by game time. I’m laying a hefty price on the juice tonight, -125, which is why I haven’t locked it in as a Firm Fiasco LOCK. It’s just a one unit play, but one that I feel great about. This is my strongest play today, even though it’s weighted the same as the others.
Play: Angels @ Royals Over 9 -125 (1.25 to win 1) **PUSH**

Rangers (Harden) @ White Sox (Buehrle)
I don’t think Buehrle has been too bad this year, and a relatively cheap price of -125 for the staff Ace seems reasonable against a slumping rangers club. Texas without Cruz is a far less potent offense, especially on the road. Buehrle has been solid against Texas in the past, though not recent, we must remember he CAN dominate any game he’s in. Harden pitched against Peavy earlier this year, and gave up 3 earned in 6 innings pitched, getting a 6-5 victory at home. (at home being the key) Until the Rangers can prove that they can win on the road, I will gladly take an ace like Buehrle against them. All in all I have this game at 5 runs for the White Sox and 4 for Texas, but with those 4 imaginary predictive runs comes the chance of a Buehrle gem
Play: Chicago White Sox -124 (1.24 to win 1)

Twins (Blackburn) @ Mariners (Vargas)
The Twins have been solid recently, and the Mariners have been, well… the Mariners… Blackburn has struggled on the road this year and Vargas has been stellar at home. Blackburn is coming off of 5 quality starts, while Vargas has been pretty much lights out all year, only giving up more than 3 ER on 1 occasion (his first start, at Texas, that team that has an AMAZING offense at home…) I have to think that my numbers are pretty solid in showing Minnesota will struggle to get 3 runs, and Seattle has an excellent chance of putting up 4 runs, as I have them at 4.8 runs. In all, I feel there is a lot of value on the Mariners tonight.
Play: Seattle Mariners -108 (1.08 to win 1)

June 1 Summary

3-4 -1.55 Units

Yesterday was a bit of a rough day, but I'm at least satisfied in getting the push on the total to salvage a totally dreadful day

The worst part was I was out of town and when I checked in on the scores every play looked solid (early in the night) and then again this morning and I saw no such thing. I couldn't cap last night (today's card) but will get back on it tomorrow and try to put forth a couple of winning days to get out of this poor start. It's only one day.

[Fiasco]

Season Record 3-4-1 (-1.55 Units)

June 3, 2010

Atlanta Braves (Medlen) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Kuroda)
The Braves are rolling, and while they got the Phillies at the perfect time, I think they’re also coming in as one of the hotter teams in baseball against a Dodger’s team that was extremely fortunate against a poor diamondback performance in their last series. In all, Medlen has been solid in his outings this year and to this point has given his team a chance to win in his outings, a necessity when betting a dog. Kuroda always seems to be a wildcard, and a guy that I’m always hesitant when backing, but not so much in fading. It’s not that he’s bad, it just seems that he’s prone to miss lapses from time to time, and with a fortunate Dodgers winning streak I think there is value to be found on the braves. I show the braves scoring just over 4 runs, and the Dodgers just under 4, and given the streak the braves are on, and the “luck” the Dodgers have seen this week, +125 is too good to pass on.
Pick: Atlanta Braves +125 (1 to win 1.25)

Los Angeles Angels (Weaver) @ Kansas City Royals (Greinke)
Weaver has been fairly solid this year, and Greinke has been hittable (unlike last year at this point) yet solid. I think this total is set WAY too low at 7.5 (plus money especially) and will gladly hit the over. I think the books should have it at 8 first of all, and even then I’d lean over. Weaver can get himself into trouble by enabling opponents to get on base, and with the Royals hitting at a high average, I like their chances to get 3-4 runs off of him in his 6 innings of work, and tack on another 1 or 2 in the remaining innings against the dreadful bullpen. I feel the Royals can score 5 runs fairly easily, which means that Greinke + the bull pen has to hold the Angels to 2 runs or less in order for us to lose… I simply don’t think that’s happening, as I also have Greinke getting into trouble with base runners and giving up 3-4 with the same struggles from the bull pen (1-2 in their 3 innings of work). Combined I have it at just under 5 runs for both teams (4.91 and 4.93 respectively) mainly a result of their inabilities to keep runners off the base paths and the likeliness the bullpen gets shelled late. The thing that I think the 7.5 total is failing to account for is the poor pitching by BOTH team’s bullpens. Yes, this may be a 2-1 type game and I may never come close to cashing this ticket… but I LOVE being able to get a 7.5 total at + money with 2 pitchers that haven’t been lights out, deep pitchers all year (only going about 6 innings each) with killer bullpens against poor offenses. Both Offenses can put up runs, and both bull pens can blow the game. The Over in this game is my favorite play of the day, and I feel it hits at a reasonably profitable percent of the time.
Pick: Over 7.5 +105 (1 to win 1.05)

Minnesota Twins (Pavano) @ Seattle Mariners (Hernandez)
Felix has struggled this year, mostly early, and while he’s recently turned things around, the Twins lineup presents a problem for him. He’s given up 1 run, 3 runs, 2 runs, and 1 run in his last 4 outings, but the teams that he’s faced haven’t been as potent as the Twins. Those performances were against Baltimore, Oakland, San Diego and Los Angeles (Angels). He’s been nothing short of excellent against Minnesota in the past, but Minnesota is much better this year than in the past so I read little into that… I have the Twins at 3.9 runs scored and the Mariners at 3.5 runs. Even if you adjust the Twins down a little because of Felix’s past against them, and recent resurgence I still think getting +124 is a real steal and true value, given Pavano can throw a 1-2 run game against a poor Mariners lineup just as easily as Felix. We just need to hit 1 of the 2 sides to profit today, and I feel like there’s a decent chance we hit both.
Pick: Minnesota Twins +124 (1 to win 1.24)


Best of luck today

[Fiasco]

Season Record 3-4-1 (-1.55 Units)

June 3, 2010

Atlanta Braves (Medlen) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Kuroda)
The Braves are rolling, and while they got the Phillies at the perfect time, I think they’re also coming in as one of the hotter teams in baseball against a Dodger’s team that was extremely fortunate against a poor diamondback performance in their last series. In all, Medlen has been solid in his outings this year and to this point has given his team a chance to win in his outings, a necessity when betting a dog. Kuroda always seems to be a wildcard, and a guy that I’m always hesitant when backing, but not so much in fading. It’s not that he’s bad, it just seems that he’s prone to miss lapses from time to time, and with a fortunate Dodgers winning streak I think there is value to be found on the braves. I show the braves scoring just over 4 runs, and the Dodgers just under 4, and given the streak the braves are on, and the “luck” the Dodgers have seen this week, +125 is too good to pass on.
Pick: Atlanta Braves +125 (1 to win 1.25)

Los Angeles Angels (Weaver) @ Kansas City Royals (Greinke)
Weaver has been fairly solid this year, and Greinke has been hittable (unlike last year at this point) yet solid. I think this total is set WAY too low at 7.5 (plus money especially) and will gladly hit the over. I think the books should have it at 8 first of all, and even then I’d lean over. Weaver can get himself into trouble by enabling opponents to get on base, and with the Royals hitting at a high average, I like their chances to get 3-4 runs off of him in his 6 innings of work, and tack on another 1 or 2 in the remaining innings against the dreadful bullpen. I feel the Royals can score 5 runs fairly easily, which means that Greinke + the bull pen has to hold the Angels to 2 runs or less in order for us to lose… I simply don’t think that’s happening, as I also have Greinke getting into trouble with base runners and giving up 3-4 with the same struggles from the bull pen (1-2 in their 3 innings of work). Combined I have it at just under 5 runs for both teams (4.91 and 4.93 respectively) mainly a result of their inabilities to keep runners off the base paths and the likeliness the bullpen gets shelled late. The thing that I think the 7.5 total is failing to account for is the poor pitching by BOTH team’s bullpens. Yes, this may be a 2-1 type game and I may never come close to cashing this ticket… but I LOVE being able to get a 7.5 total at + money with 2 pitchers that haven’t been lights out, deep pitchers all year (only going about 6 innings each) with killer bullpens against poor offenses. Both Offenses can put up runs, and both bull pens can blow the game. The Over in this game is my favorite play of the day, and I feel it hits at a reasonably profitable percent of the time.
Pick: Over 7.5 +105 (1 to win 1.05)

Minnesota Twins (Pavano) @ Seattle Mariners (Hernandez)
Felix has struggled this year, mostly early, and while he’s recently turned things around, the Twins lineup presents a problem for him. He’s given up 1 run, 3 runs, 2 runs, and 1 run in his last 4 outings, but the teams that he’s faced haven’t been as potent as the Twins. Those performances were against Baltimore, Oakland, San Diego and Los Angeles (Angels). He’s been nothing short of excellent against Minnesota in the past, but Minnesota is much better this year than in the past so I read little into that… I have the Twins at 3.9 runs scored and the Mariners at 3.5 runs. Even if you adjust the Twins down a little because of Felix’s past against them, and recent resurgence I still think getting +124 is a real steal and true value, given Pavano can throw a 1-2 run game against a poor Mariners lineup just as easily as Felix. We just need to hit 1 of the 2 sides to profit today, and I feel like there’s a decent chance we hit both.
Pick: Minnesota Twins +124 (1 to win 1.24)


Best of luck today

June 3 Summary
2-1 (+1.3 Units)

We bounced back today with a winning day and it brings us even on the season minus a little juice. Felix beat us for our only loss, and I can live with that. Hopefully today built a little momentum to carry ourselves into the weekend. I'm breaking down tomorrows card now and will have the plays posted soon hopefully.

Season Record 5-5-1 (-.25 Units)

[Fiasco]

I'm choosing to pass on the overnight lines. I may have a play in the afternoon but nothing I really like right now that I think will move against me....

[Fiasco]

6/5

just one play today, and I waited until right before game time to get the best price on the dog.

Atlanta Braves (Hanson) @ LA Dodgers (Billingsley)

I don't have long before this play goes off, and not much time for the right-up, but essentially I feel as though there is value on the braves based on Tommy's recent struggles. However he has been nothing but stellar away from home, and billingsley hasn't really been lights out while throwing at home so I definitely thing +114 is great value on the braves. It's been climbing all day so I'm getting it at near the high point which is good, even though a lot choose to layoff games like this (going against the line moves) I feel that hanson at +114 is great value and definitely worth a 1 unit stab. I have the braves at just under 5 runs tonight, while the dodgers at just under 3... so a 2 run advantage to the Braves= A solid value play for me!
Pick: Atlanta Braves +114

[Fiasco]

6/5 Summary

1-0 (+1.14 Units)
just one play today, and I waited until right before game time to get the best price on the dog. Atlanta Braves (Hanson) @ LA Dodgers (Billingsley) I don't have long before this play goes off, and not much time for the right-up, but essentially I feel as though there is value on the braves based on Tommy's recent struggles. However he has been nothing but stellar away from home, and billingsley hasn't really been lights out while throwing at home so I definitely thing +114 is great value on the braves. It's been climbing all day so I'm getting it at near the high point which is good, even though a lot choose to layoff games like this (going against the line moves) I feel that hanson at +114 is great value and definitely worth a 1 unit stab. I have the braves at just under 5 runs tonight, while the dodgers at just under 3... so a 2 run advantage to the Braves= A solid value play for me! Pick: Atlanta Braves +114

Season Record 6-5-1 (+.89 Units)

I've been super busy lately, may take Sunday off unless I find any plays I feel hold great value, like tonight's play.

[BettingWorld]

Good day kiddo. Keep it hangin

[Fiasco]

6/8 Twosday


Atlanta Braves (Medlin) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Jackson)

I'm trying to beat the line move on this one, as I feel the line should be around 8.5 instead of the 9.5 currently posted. Medlin has been very solid, and Jackson seems to have turned it around *crosses fingers* In all I think a 4-3 game is very likely, and even if we get a 4-5 game, we can still cash the under by getting the overnight price of 9.5

Pick: Under 9.5 -120 (1.2 to win 1)


Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) @ Texas Rangers (Lewis)

Felix has been dominant lately, however I feel that dominance comenses on Tuesday as he faces a very potent (at home) Texas Rangers line-up. Now he can't come out as a dog really... so a pickem line is somewhat expected here, maybe even a shocker to the average joe. Joe Public thinks that the almighty King Felix vs a not very well known picture at Pick em = LOCK OF THE CENTURY... well Joe Public can think that. I, however, think that this is the prime spot to see some reverse line movement take place, and will lock in a solid play on the Rangers. I think the rangers can close as high as -115, and the mariners at +105, with 70% of bets backing Seattle. That of course is just my own personal speculation... In all I have the game capped at 13 runners reaching base for the Rangers, and being at home, where the rangers hit extremely well and play extremely well, I think they can drive in over the 3.7 runs I have them projected to score and even beat that average. I have the Mariners coming in with around 3.5 runs but with a much less potent line-up, and a bullpen that can blow games on the road, I feel confident they'll struggle to even come close to that... I see a 5-3 kind of game here in favor of the Rangers.

Pick: Texas Rangers -108 (1.08 to win 1)


2 Plays for Tuesday, and I feel they both have decent chances of beating the closing number and coming in as winners.

Best of Luck

[Smogs]

Good luck dude, i like 'em

[Fiasco]

7-6-1 (+.69 Units)

Inter-league has been going on and I've stayed away, but tonight I feel there is value in Marcum on the road as a small favorite. I feel the line should be closer to -120, regardless of Garlands dominance at home. He allows base runners, which will be a problem in inter-league play

6/14

Blue Jays (Marcum) @ Padres (Garland)

Not much time for a writeup but wanted to get this play posted because I feel it has true value and a great chance of hitting. Marcum hasn't been solid lately, but thats just because both starts came against the Rays. In a pitcher friendly park, against a national league, non offensive juggernaut, I love his chances of keeping the Jays in the game and giving them a solid chance of winning. I think the line is a little skewed and off in some way, I can't quite put my finger on it, but I'll be backing Marcum tonight.

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays (1.09 to win 1)

[Fiasco]

Season Record 8-6-1 (+1.69 Units)

No plays for tomorrow as of yet, going to check out some line moves throughout the day tomorrow before I make a decision on rather to play a game or not.