---My official MLB thread - Strong picks and HOT chicks---

[SolidDala]

Wow, 7-1, nice work JAYS!!! Didn't back them, but feel damn good that I start to get a hang of things for next season

Its great to see your spirit WG for the %hit for monsters and strong plays. Not a lot of games are worse then 1.80 here so even if your monster bets hits 60% you will finish STRONG this season!

[brko]

i'm from europe, and went to bed when the total for Jays was 7, in the morning i saw it landed at 8 and my local book gave me 7.5 i cached both monsters. now, i'm heading for vacation and i'll be away for a week or so. Grumpy, will write you when i come back unless i find some internet caffe or something. your inbox was full tonight.

[WiseGrumpy]

One point though Grumpy a few pages bacl you said you wanted over 80% for the monsters, is 75% a revised figure as 80 was highly ambitious ?

I can finish with 90%, but I caclculate things 24\7. My goal is of course to hit all bets, but I won't go UNDER 75% with the MONSTERS.

I pretty much just bet on the monsters and the strong ones. I bet on other games aswell but then Im tailing other cappers.
Its been a sweet ride so far

Wow, 7-1, nice work JAYS!!! Didn't back them, but feel damn good that I start to get a hang of things for next season

Its great to see your spirit WG for the %hit for monsters and strong plays. Not a lot of games are worse then 1.80 here so even if your monster bets hits 60% you will finish STRONG this season!

Great point.

i'm from europe, and went to bed when the total for Jays was 7, in the morning i saw it landed at 8 and my local book gave me 7.5 i cached both monsters. now, i'm heading for vacation and i'll be away for a week or so. Grumpy, will write you when i come back unless i find some internet caffe or something. your inbox was full tonight.

I will empty my box. Have fun mate!!!

[WiseGrumpy]

I want to post this again in case someone missed it:

Important note:
The last two days weren't very good, especially of this threads standards. I want to take advantage of that to point out some things. First of all this thread will have great success until the end of the season, simply thanks to you guys. Most of the time I deliver big and you guys take advantage of that and have a solid opinion. And when we had a few bad days (very few) you guys understood it's part of the game and it happens, which is important. What I want is for you guys to remember the way you should bet my plays, because as I said, even though we had some misses, if you bet my plays right, the profit you made so far is HUGE. With that I also want you to be consistent, because we had some ppl popping in, betting exactly on the day a MONSTER fell and they go crazy.
The MONSTER plays WILL finish OVER 75% by the end of the season which is HUGE. The STRONG plays will finish OVER 65% which is HUGE. And the Regular plays will finish OVER 55% for the years which is HUGE.
That means whoever will bet the plays right, will finish the years with a big bankroll.

Good luck to us all!

[WiseGrumpy]

6/17/2010



NY Yankees
-1
BIG LOCK
For every 100$ you win 95$
bet #17

[WiseGrumpy]

6/17/2010



NY Mets
ML
BIG LOCK
For every 100$ you win 100$
Bet

[HighVoltage]

WG, can you tell me how you calculate the line for your -1 bets, or did you mean to put -1.5?

[fly fisher]

thanks WG. Off to work for the day so will have to stick with these two picks

[WiseGrumpy]

WG, can you tell me how you calculate the line for your -1 bets, or did you mean to put -1.5?

Calculate? It's a bet I have with my books ... When I bet -1 I also bet the ML and -1.5.

[HighVoltage]

So if I wanted to win 200, I would put 200 to win 100 on the Yankees ML, and 105 to win 100 on the RL. Therefore, my risk is 305 to win 200. That would be a line of -1 (-152), not -1 (-105). Please let me know where my calculations are off.

[WiseGrumpy]

So if I wanted to win 200, I would put 200 to win 100 on the Yankees ML, and 105 to win 100 on the RL. Therefore, my risk is 305 to win 200. That would be a line of -1 (-152), not -1 (-105). Please let me know where my calculations are off.

Dude, this is VERY simple. The odds for Yankees -1 in my book are 2.0, you can find that same bet on Victor Chandler for -1.5. So if you bet 100$ you win 100$.
It's very simple.

[HighVoltage]

What is SIMPLE??? You are trying to tell me the odds for -1 and -1.5 are the same??? I looked and the odds at Victor Chandler are Yankees -1.5 -105. The SIMPLE part is that the odds that you posted for -1 are not correct. The correct line for Yankees -1 is just over -150. It does not get much SIMPLER than that.

Furthermore, the odds for yesterday's Cardinals -1 should have been -130 and not even money.

I am very aware of how to calculate odds for -1 plays. I am just trying to figure out how YOU came up with those lines. So, if you look at my original question, I politely asked you if you meant to put -1.5 instead of -1. Because you have posted the line for -1.5 and not -1 on todays Yankee game.

[WiseGrumpy]

What is SIMPLE??? You are trying to tell me the odds for -1 and -1.5 are the same??? I looked and the odds at Victor Chandler are Yankees -1.5 -105. The SIMPLE part is that the odds that you posted for -1 are not correct. The correct line for Yankees -1 is just over -150. It does not get much SIMPLER than that.

Furthermore, the odds for yesterday's Cardinals -1 should have been -130 and not even money.

I am very aware of how to calculate odds for -1 plays. I am just trying to figure out how YOU came up with those lines. So, if you look at my original question, I politely asked you if you meant to put -1.5 instead of -1. Because you have posted the line for -1.5 and not -1 on todays Yankee game.

lol buddy, you better read what I am about to write here, because this is becoming annoying ...
You don't "calculate" odds, odds are what you GET. NOW you get different odds from different books. I use 4 different ways to place my bets. My own bookie in Israel, Vegas, Victor Chandler and a local book in Israel that is called "Winner". I place the BEST bet I find. This thread are MY bets, so I publish MY odds. People are find their OWN odds, and they place bets even if it's a little different or if the line is 8.5 and not 8. But I won't publish something I didn't do, for good or worse. Yesterday the MONSTER was 8.5 but a lot of people got it for 8. I published 8.5, because it's MY bet.

NOW, in VC you can get Yankees -1.5 for 2.00 (Decimal odds), I get the same thing from my bookie for -1. So It's smarter for me to bet that. GOT IT?! Same thing for the Cards game yesterday. Because I have full faith in my bets, I also bet the 1.5 and BIG on the ML.
Now you can see my bet and decide betting the -1.5 is good because the bet is strong, or decide it's not good enough if you can find better odds for the -1. That's it.

I told you 4 times before, in this thread I publish MY bets, whatever I have here, are bets I have money on. Why would I publish something that I didn't bet on?! for good or worse.

That's it. I hope you got it.

[HighVoltage]

I have got it, alright, and I don't need to read what you are about. You have shown it to me very clearly.

I wish you well in your quest.

[LarryF]

WiseGrumpy, All over the NY teams with you, let's rock brother!

[WiseGrumpy]

I have got it, alright, and I don't need to read what you are about. You have shown it to me very clearly.

I wish you well in your quest.

Thank you very much

[WiseGrumpy]

Today's theme if you guys didn't see it yet, HOT girls kissing. With such a theme we must have a HUGE day.

[aeschylus]

I have got it, alright, and I don't need to read what you are about. You have shown it to me very clearly.

I wish you well in your quest.

I think to be fair if Grumpy was posting P+L figures etc +35 units etc, I think you would have a fair point in that it would be hard to replicate the exact winnings.

but I think by him posting if the bet won or loss, he is not trying to quote all the winnings but simply he says bet won or bet lost

[valsen]

On the kissing theme GO YANKS!!!!!!!!!

[WiseGrumpy]

6/17/2010



Twins Vs Rockies
UNDER 6.5 Runs
BIG LOCK
For every 100$ you win 100$
Bet

[aeschylus]

2.04 at 188bet

so for every $100 you win $104

[WiseGrumpy]

6/17/2010



Tigers
-1.5
BIG LOCK
For every 100$ you win 100$
High Value play

[WiseGrumpy]

We have 2 early plays, one STRONG one HIGH value. We have two late plays one of them will be a MONSTER play for sure. I might have one more late play.
I have 4 plays for the WC and 4 for the NBA finals.

GL everyone.

[rustyscrub]

love the Tigers...

[camel]

Thanks for the picks grump. I've seen your important note. I mainly play the monsters only cause I don't really follow baseball, hence I only play 1 or 2 games a day. I tail u on monsters because that's what you're more confident about.

Hope u can keep it up.

[buzzer]

Now that Yankee pic made me laugh

[MarkTX]

Let's Get em today Grumps! All over the Yanks and LOVE that Under. Liriano has been good lately and Jimenez is just ridiculously good - I could see that game being decided 1-0 in extra innings!

Will wait to see how you classify the others...GL bud! - keep it up!

[gtkid911]

Was already on the under in the Rockies game, but since you're on it, makes me a lot more confident

[tayco]

Hey Grump, the books are shakin' and the banks asmilin'!!

[neo1124]

Hi WG.. is your Monster logo coming up soon?

[Full Time Hobo]

Lets Get'em today Grump!

[MarkTX]

GO YANKS!!!!!

[WiseGrumpy]

Keep the pics coming this thread is beautiful thnx to you guys!!!

MONSTER pic in two hours or less.

[pad]

wow this is the best thread ever.

[inthehouse]

yes, this thread rocks. none better on SBR in my opinion