MexicanStallion's MLB Thread Part II

[MexicanStallion]

i hear ya ab the cards since ur a cincy fan lol...

If I like the play I will still bet on St.Louis, but if I lose I don't feel too bad with them.

Have you invested in a future for the Reds to win the NL Central? I honestly think they might do it this year....

I have not. Going into this season I was unsure about this team. I was thinking they are about a year away from the division. I predicted they would finish over .500 and give serious competition to the Central and get very close to the Wildcard.

[MexicanStallion]

“Rookie Debut”

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Houston Astros for a three game series Friday. This will be their second meeting of the season since late April when The Reds swept Houston on the road.

The Reds rolled through the Pirates taking three out of four games. They Reds (28-20) lead the National League Central by 1 game over the St. Louis Cardinals (27-21). With their series win last night, the Reds have won 7 of their last 8 series. They Reds have played strong in the division with them at 19-11 on the season. This series will lead up to the big show down against the Cardinals to conclude May.

First I like the Reds to at least take 2 out of three games. The series price is (-225). That is pretty high juice, but I still like it offer. The Reds will send LeCure, Harang, and Leake to the mound this weekend against Rodriguez, TBA, and Paulino. The Reds should roll on Sunday with Leake’s sensational rookie start in the big leagues. Harang is the weakest matchup in the bunch, but until there is a decision on who will start that game is a toss up. That brings me into today’s game with Sam LeCure on the mound.

The first question somebody would ask would be who is Sam LeCure? If you’re a Reds fan you would probably ask the same question. LeCure doesn’t have all the media hype that surrounds Aroldis Chapman or the buzz that Leake had in Spring Training, but he has pitched well this season in Louisville. LeCure was drafted in the fourth round in the 2005 draft. He turned 26 years old earlier in May. LeCure was added to the 40 man roster before last season and pitched okay. He was 10-8 with a 4.46 era in 25 starts. He logged over 140 innings with 125 strike outs and 44 walks. Nothing initially jumps out when looking back on those stats. Everything was very average, but he had the opportunity to pitch a full season in Triple A. This year has been a huge turn around.

The Reds rotation was nearly set with Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, and Bailey. They needed a fifth starter going into Spring. They had many candidates with favorites Chapman, Leake, Wood, and Maloney leading the pick. LeCure was in camp as well and went under the radar with a nice Spring. LeCure pitched 7.1 innings with 3 runs allowed for a 3.68 era. He 4 strike outs with one walk. There is little to look at it, but it was a preview. This season in Louisville he has had 9 starts going 5-2 with a 2.55 era. In his 60 innings pitched he has 51 strikes outs and 15 walks. His last start on May 22nd, he threw a one hitter against the Yankees Triple A team while striking out 5 batters. He was roughed up a bit in one outing giving up 5 runs in 6.2 innings, but has been great the remaining eight starts. According to John Fay, he has an average fastball topping out at 92. He throws a sinking two-seam fastball, a curveball, a changeup, and slider. The key tonight will be throwing strikes. That is the key with any pitcher, but with an average fastball that is important. I can imagine his nerves will play a part tonight, so if he gets through the first inning unharmed he should pitch a good ball game against the worst hitting team in the National League. The Astros are batting .229, 9 points behind the Pittsburgh Pirates. LeCure will be the fifth Red to make his major league debut behind Mike Leake, Logan Ondrusek, Chris Heisey, and Enerio Del Rosario.

Wandy is pitching below expectations this season and the Houston Astros have been playing poorly most of the season. The Reds should be able to score off Wandy, but I look at this game as low scoring if the Reds are going to win. I am looking for LeCure to give the Reds six innings and 2 runs allowed. The Reds should hopefully get Joey Votto back tonight after missing the last two games with a stiff neck. I would sit Jay Bruce tonight as he is hitting .067(1/15) against Wandy. Jonny Gomes and Ramon Hernandez have had good success off Wandy with Gomes hitting .364(4/11) and three runs batted in Ramon hitting .385(5/13). Hernandez would be a good fit to start tonight to help LeCure out with his first major league start and he has decent success off Wandy. Votto is hitting .318 and Phillips is hitting .222 off Wandy with the rest of the starters tonight having seen little of Wandy. Each night the Reds have a new guy as hero having a big game, so I will look towards Gomes being the guy tonight. My prediction will be a 4-2 Reds winner.

Sam LeCure (0-0 0.00) vs. Wandy Rodriguez (2-6 4.33)
Cincinnati Reds ML (-122)
Cincinnati Reds Series (-225)

[MexicanStallion]

May 28th
St. Louis Cardinals (-112)
1.12 to win 1.00

I think Carpenter bounces back and pitches well for a one run win.

[MexicanStallion]

Cincinnati Reds (-122)
2.44 to win 2.00

[KingJIM]

Good luck with your picks. Miss your point book!

[MexicanStallion]

I had some correct statements on my blog. Gomes was huge, but so was everyone. I called LeCure's outing perfect. The score way off, but a winner and a start to my series winner

[MexicanStallion]

May 28th
St. Louis Cardinals (-112)
1.12 to win 1.00

Cincinnati Reds (-122)
2.44 to win 2.00

May 28th
2-0 (+3.00 Units)

Season: 10-2 (+18.86 Units)

Moneyline: 7-2 (+14.08 Units)
Totals: 1-0 (+1.00 Units)
Runline: 1-0 (+1.88 Units)
Alt Runline: 1-0 (+1.90 Units)

[thechaoz]

Another stallion hit . . Ship it and thanks for the picks!

[MexicanStallion]

Good luck with your picks. Miss your point book!

Thank you sir. I enjoyed running the book. SBR wanted change though.

Another stallion hit . . Ship it and thanks for the picks!

Not much feedback here, but it has been enjoyable watching the Reds kick butt and me winning bets.

[No coincidences]

[fadeCOVERS4me]

i see a big comeback from that end of the nba run. glad to see ya back!!

[robert_wrath]

Thread II seems to be working out just fine Mex. Keep up the good work!

[hustla]

Nice work Mex

[sonnybaby]

all day good job mex

[Shortstop]

Great comeback, Stallion! I wish you nothing but the best!

[TodaysAction]

[TylerDurden]

Mex how you feel about Harang on the mound tonight for Cincinnati? -167 is a bit steep for my liking, but curious on your thoughts. I also like that over.

[shoebox]

Gl on the new thread mex

[MexicanStallion]

“Aaron Harang: Time to step up”

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Houston Astros for the second game of the series Saturday. The Reds go into today after dismantling the Astros 15-6 on Friday night.

The Reds continued their dominance in the Central extended their record to (20-11). The Reds (29-20) lead the National League Central by 1 game over the St. Louis Cardinals (28-21).

Aaron Harang has been a huge disappointment going into the season once again. Since the arrival of Dusty Baker, Harang has been 12-31 the last two seasons. That is a huge drop off from his 2007 season of going 16-6. Aaron Harang needs to step up this game. He needs to step up for multiple reasons. The Reds have a lot of momentum. The pitching has been contagious with everyone having good success this season. Harang needs to continue the momentum tonight leading up to the St. Louis series Monday. This is Harang’s ‘contract year essentially with a $12.5 million option waiting for next year. Not only will Harang not have his option picked up, he will have a hard time landing a contract of value. Sam LeCure won in his debut last night holding the Astros to 2 runs in six innings. If he continues to pitch well in place of Homer Bailey, the Reds will need to make a decision on Harang. Bailey was pitching well before landing on the DL with inflammation. The Reds also had good news with Edinson Volquez throwing early from his recovery of Tommy John surgery. They expect Volquez back in July, so Harang has a short leash. I expect an average outing from Harang tonight. The last three outings have been almost identical. Harang has gone 6.1, 6.0, and 6.0 innings while allowing 4 runs in each of his last three starts. I predict Harang will go 6.1 innings allowing 4 runs tonight.

The Reds scored 15 runs and had 19 hits last night. Typically a team will go cold the next game after having a field day the night before. Tonight will not be one of those games. The Reds should score early and often again former Red Brian Moehler. The Reds have had limited at bats again Moehler in the past. Joey Votto and Laynce Nix have had the most at bats, but neither will be starting. After a rough outing again Wandy Rodriguez, Jay Bruce should feel more comfortable at the plate tonight. Bruce is hitting 3/11(.273) with 2 home runs and 4 runs batted in against Moehler in his short career. Brandon Phillips is also 3/11(.273) against Moehler with the rest of the team having less than 4 at bats.

Miguel Cairo has been a huge boost to the Reds off the bench in place of the missing Joey Votto. Votto has missed the last three games going on to four with a stiff neck. That is an unusual stiff neck since the Reds have commented very little on the status of Votto. Cincinnati fans are beginning to speculate that Votto could be away because of his anxiety issues from last season. That is all speculation at this point, but what is known is Cairo has played great in his last three starts. Cairo has gone 8/14(.571) while scoring 6 runs, one home run, one run batted in, and one stolen base. Cairo is very important to the roster because he is the back up first basemen besides Ramon Hernandez. Cairo should continue his hot hitting tonight along with Jay Bruce delivering.

Brian Moehler has been in the bullpen for the Houston Astros this season. Moehler is filling in for Bud Norris in the rotation. Moehler has had average success this season posting a 4.42 era. My prediction will be over the posted total of 9 runs. This blog though will be supporting the Cincinnati Reds ML. The final score will be 7-5 Reds.

Aaron Harang (3-5 5.98) vs. Brian Moehler (0-1 4.42)
Cincinnati Reds ML (-165)

All statistics were supplied from www.cincinnati.reds.mlb.com

[MexicanStallion]

Thanks No coincidences

i see a big comeback from that end of the nba run. glad to see ya back!!

I would love to have a great baseball season, but I was very awful last season.

Thread II seems to be working out just fine Mex. Keep up the good work!

Thread II is off to a great start. I am hoping to have a nice May finish and work on a good June.

Nice work Mex

Thanks huslta

all day good job mex

Thanks sonnybaby

[HCBoone]

Nice one! BOL as always and nice to see you back!!

[MexicanStallion]

Great comeback, Stallion! I wish you nothing but the best!

Thanks Shortstop. I appreciate the kidn words.

Good luck with the rest of your season TA.

Mex how you feel about Harang on the mound tonight for Cincinnati? -167 is a bit steep for my liking, but curious on your thoughts. I also like that over.

I posted a blog a few posts above. To sum it up I think the Reds will out hit the Astros tonight. Harang will give up his usual runs and I feel like it goes over as well.

Gl on the new thread mex

Thanks shoebox. Much appreciated.

[MexicanStallion]

May 29th
Cincinnati Reds (-165)
2.55 to win 1.50

[MexicanStallion]

May 29th
Cincinnati Reds (-165)
2.48 to win 1.50

May 29th
1-0 (+1.50 Units)

Season: 11-2 (+20.36 Units)

Moneyline: 8-2 (+15.58 Units)
Totals: 1-0 (+1.00 Units)
Runline: 1-0 (+1.88 Units)
Alt Runline: 1-0 (+1.90 Units)

[robert_wrath]

Excellent call and your Blog for back up!

[MexicanStallion]

Excellent call and your Blog for back up!

Thank you sir. Bruce and Cairo made my blog look great. Thankfully Harang proved me wrong and pitched a nice game.

[MexicanStallion]

"Mike Leake vs. Felipe Paulino Part II"

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Houston Astros for the third game of the series Sunday. The Reds are looking to bring the brooms after winning the first two games handily.

The Cincinnati Reds (30-20) extend their Central Division lead to two games over the St. Louis Cardinals (28-22). The Reds are on a 4 game winning streak and have won 7 of their last 9 games. Sunday should extend the winning streak to 5 games.

Mike Leake has been a great story for the Cincinnati Reds. Leake was drafted 8th overall in the 2009 Major League Baseball draft. Leake is the first player since Xavier Nady to go directly from the draft to the major leagues. He went into Spring Training with a chance at the #5 rotation spot. Leake beat out Travis Wood down the stretch to win the job. The main factor for winning the job was Leake's control and ability to throw strikes. In his first two starts, Leake pitched 13.2 innings and walked 12 batters. Since then Leake has had 7 starts, pitching 46.1 innings and walked 10 batters. Leake leads the Reds pitchers with 8 out of 9 quality starts. Back in late April, Leake beat the Houston Astros in Houston. He pitched 7 innings allowing 1 run and striking out 5 batters. In May, Leake is 2-0 with 32.1 innings pitched, supporting a 2.23 era with 24 strikeouts and 7 walks. With a successful two months in the majors, Leake should pick up his fifth win on Sunday.

The Reds dominated Houston Saturday night. The Reds have outscored Houston 27-8 in two games. Jay Bruce and Ramon Hernandez combined for 4 home runs and 7 runs batted in Saturday. The Reds have had no problem hitting the ball this series as they are knocking the starters out early and teeing off on the bullpen late. Felipe Paulino will be no exception.

Paulino matched up against Leake in late April, losing 6-4. Hunter Pence had a costly error as it allowed 4 unearned runs of the six total. Paulino has bad luck with run support as Houston has scored 2 runs or fewer in 6 out of his 9 starts. Houston will have a hard time scoring runs Sunday against Leake. The lineup will be interesting. Laynce Nix has had success against Paulino going 5/12(.417) with a home run and 4 runs batted in. He was 0/4 against Paulino April 28th. Jay Bruce won't sit and it will be tough to pull out Jonny Gomes. Bruce has gone 3/11(.273) hitting 2 home runs and driving in four runs against Paulino. In his last eight games, Bruce has gone 11/27(.407) scoring 5 runs, hitting 3 home runs and driving in 8 runs. Bruce will deliver again on Sunday. Cairo continues his hot hitting in place of injured Joey Votto. In the last 4 games Cairo is 10/18(.556) scoring 8 runs, hitting 2 home runs and driving in three runs. Dusty Baker said Joey Votto is getting better, so it sounds like Cairo gets another start Sunday. Ramon Hernandez will get the bulk of the catching duties with Ryan Hanigan going on the DL with a broken thumb. Hernandez is 8 for his last 12 in 4 games. The last hitter to mention is Drew Stubbs. Stubbs has collected a hit in 7 out of his last 8 games and in his last 4 games he is 7/16(.438) with 5 runs scored, 1 home run, and 4 runs batted in.

In conclusion the Reds bats are on fire. There is no easy out anywhere in the lineup. Mike Leake is even hitting .368 on the season. The Reds will dominate tomorrow and complete the sweep going into the St. Louis series. Paulino gets knocked out early and the Reds coast to a 8-2 win.

Mike Leake (4-0 2.70) vs. Felipe Paulino (0-7 5.08)
Cincinnati Reds ML (-178)
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+115)

[MexicanStallion]

May 30th
Cincinnati Reds (-178)
8.90 to win 5.00
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+115)
2.00 to win 2.30

[sonnybaby]

on it lets get it

[svenodds]

nice write up

[MexicanStallion]

on it lets get it

Best of luck. I feel good about the plays today.

nice write up

Thank you sir. My blog made blog roll.

[JR007]

Thanks Mex

[canepole]

appreciate you and your picks

[MexicanStallion]

Thanks Mex

Sure. Sorry today was such a disappointing day.

appreciate you and your picks

No problem sir. Sorry today was a big let down.

[robert_wrath]

The house has to win Once in a Blue Moon. The Reds got EVERYONE on Sunday. No need to weigh yourself down. Today's a new day!!!!!!!