Staying ahead of the books (SAB)

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  • Wilforth
    Restricted User
    • 05-10-08
    • 16309

    #1
    Staying ahead of the books (SAB)
    Dbacks/Rockies
    Haren (5-5, 4.79 ERA) opposes Hammels (1-5, 7.52 ERA).
    The numbers say Haren is the better SP. Plus Dbacks are supposed to fight hard to avoid the sweep. All that have made the books install Dbacks as favorite. Will they win? No!


    Dodgers/Cubs
    Ely (3-1, 3.41 ERA) opposes Lilly (1-4, 4.30 ERA).
    On current form, the visitors have the better SP. Add that to the Dodger's 7-3 record in the L10 and there's a ton of value on the Dodgers at +110. The majority of early action (60%) is on the Dodgers. Deservedly, you'd think. Will they get the W? Very unlikely.

    Nationals/Giants
    Stammen (1-2, 5.96 ERA) opposes the "new" Zito (6-3, 2.80).
    Stammen's ERA is more than twice that of Zito. Yes. What else? How can the Giants lose a series to a team they've "owned"? So the Giants should "easily" win this one and go 14-3 vs. the Nats. Will they do that? Wait and see.

    Royals/Red Sox
    Bannister (3-3, 4.72 ERA) vs. Zaka (3-1, 4.76 ERA).
    Any need to even talk about this game? The Sox are as hot as hell right now, especially with the resounding "resurrection" of Ortiz. The Sox are 20-6 vs. the Royals and 4-0 vs. Bannister. No wonder 72% of action is already on the Sox and that figure should go up with time. The Sox look like an all-in play for those prone to such temptation. Will they roll over Bannister and the Royals? We'll see.


    SAB picks:
    Rockies +110
    Cubs -120
    Nationals +160
    Royals +175
  • encephalization
    SBR Sharp
    • 02-26-10
    • 491

    #2
    Like all but the Cubs pick, would not bet them sober. Underdogs are the way to go.

    BOL on the rest, might tail on a couple.
    Comment
    • Wilforth
      Restricted User
      • 05-10-08
      • 16309

      #3
      Originally posted by encephalization
      Like all but the Cubs pick, would not bet them sober. Underdogs are the way to go.

      BOL on the rest, might tail on a couple.
      That's the thing. Finding Ely and the Dodgers at plus value against Lilly and the supposedly erratic Cubs means there's so much "value" on the Dodgers. Who wouldn't go for "value"? In the end, we'll realize the Dodgers' line was a bait.
      Comment
      • Sawyer
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 06-01-09
        • 7761

        #4
        very nice picks..
        Comment
        • Wilforth
          Restricted User
          • 05-10-08
          • 16309

          #5
          Good start by the Rockies
          Comment
          • Wilforth
            Restricted User
            • 05-10-08
            • 16309

            #6
            Good start by the Nationals
            Comment
            • lakerboy
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 04-02-09
              • 94379

              #7
              Good stuff Wil. The Sox are a LOCK tonight though.
              Comment
              • Wilforth
                Restricted User
                • 05-10-08
                • 16309

                #8
                Originally posted by lakerboy
                Good stuff Wil. The Sox are a LOCK tonight though.
                Anyways, I'll take 3-1 any day. The Cubs only need 1 run to wrap it up. The Nats have won already because the Giants are done scoring. The Rockies will widen their lead in the bullpen session. So I'm already looking at a 3-1 record, if the Sox disappoint the books.
                Comment
                • Wilforth
                  Restricted User
                  • 05-10-08
                  • 16309

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Wilforth
                  SAB picks:
                  Rockies +110
                  Cubs -120
                  Nationals +160 WIN
                  Royals +175
                  Giants won't comeback!
                  Comment
                  • CappinTerp
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 11-26-09
                    • 9650

                    #10
                    I have been looking at K.C. all day they may be a good play. For me its hard to go against a hot team, but there are allways exceptions.GL
                    Comment
                    • Wilforth
                      Restricted User
                      • 05-10-08
                      • 16309

                      #11
                      Originally posted by CappinTerp
                      I have been looking at K.C. all day they may be a good play. For me its hard to go against a hot team, but there are allways exceptions.GL
                      A hot team makes difficult games look easy (e.g. Red Sox @ Rays) but when they do lose, they often do so in games you expect them to "easily" win. Also consider these:

                      * Bannister allowed only 1 run in 8 innings in his last outing against the Red Sox. The Sox won that time by 1-0.
                      * Bannister allowed only 2 runs in 7.1 innings in his last outing against the Rockies.
                      * Royals are 5-2 in their last 7 games as an underdog
                      * Royals are 2-0 in Bannister's last 2 starts (against CWS and the Rockies).
                      Comment
                      • Wilforth
                        Restricted User
                        • 05-10-08
                        • 16309

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Wilforth
                        SAB picks:
                        Rockies +110
                        Cubs -120 WIN

                        Nationals +160
                        Royals +175
                        1-0 +1.00

                        Nats and Rocks looking good as well. Let's see if we can stay ahead of the books.
                        Comment
                        • Wilforth
                          Restricted User
                          • 05-10-08
                          • 16309

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Wilforth

                          SAB picks:
                          Rockies +110 WIN
                          Cubs -120
                          WIN
                          Nationals +160
                          Royals +175
                          2-0 +2.10

                          I need the Nats to wake up!
                          Comment
                          • Rixsaw
                            SBR MVP
                            • 10-23-08
                            • 4532

                            #14
                            Comment
                            • Wilforth
                              Restricted User
                              • 05-10-08
                              • 16309

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Wilforth

                              SAB picks:
                              Rockies +110 WIN
                              Cubs -120
                              WIN
                              Nationals +160 LOSS
                              Royals +175
                              2-1 +1.10

                              The Nats came short. Should have taken them in the FF, which they won.
                              Comment
                              • No coincidences
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 01-18-10
                                • 76300

                                #16
                                I've backed Bannister twice this season, and been burned both times.

                                BOL though, Wil.
                                Comment
                                • Wilforth
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 05-10-08
                                  • 16309

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Wilforth

                                  SAB picks:
                                  Rockies +110 WIN
                                  Cubs -120
                                  WIN
                                  Nationals +160 LOSS
                                  Royals +175
                                  WIN
                                  3-1 +2.85

                                  Couldn't have wished for a better day. I'll continue tomorrow. I've been experimenting this "system" in my private plays with decent success.
                                  Comment
                                  • Wilforth
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 05-10-08
                                    • 16309

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by lakerboy
                                    Good stuff Wil. The Sox are a LOCK tonight though.
                                    Yes, the Sox were a LOCK!
                                    Comment
                                    • ironchef69
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 03-27-10
                                      • 206

                                      #19
                                      Good day Wil, looking forward to tomorrow's play. BOL
                                      Comment
                                      • French Tickler
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 03-25-10
                                        • 817

                                        #20
                                        nice day
                                        Men get fifty dollars for a sperm donation. I've got a towel at home thats worth $250,000. It's leaning up against the wall in my bedroom
                                        Comment
                                        • The Inevitable
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 05-02-10
                                          • 773

                                          #21
                                          I also had KC..... Congrats!
                                          I would like to see who you will be taking Friday.
                                          Comment
                                          • Sawyer
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 06-01-09
                                            • 7761

                                            #22
                                            Nice work mate, Congrats!
                                            Comment
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