I know the Giants have been playing poorly and that Wellenmeyer has been awful, but I think this is the best VALUE on the board. I stress value because I am not saying it is my strongest play in terms of my confidence, but the best bet for your money. I always enjoy betting west coast teams at home against east coast teams, which is why this one struck my eye to begin with. Now I know this isn't the same Nats team as last year or in years past, but it is tough to fly cross country and play well.
The first area I looked into were each teams past successes/failures in similar situations as in tonight’s game. The Giants have had a lot of success against the NL East when playing at home. The Giants are 27-13 in these situations since 2008, but if you exclude their games against the Mets they are 23-8. Since 2006, the Nats are just 17-46 when playing an NL West team on the road. Furthermore, since 2009, the Giants are 26-7 in game ones of a home series, while the Nats are just 10-23 in game ones of road series.
Next, I looked at the pitching matchup. If you just look at the season statistics, it looks like the Nats have the major advantage. But if you look more closely at past stats, you will see that the Giants have the advantage. Livan Hernandez has been great this year, but in his last 4 starts vs. the Giants he has allowed 4+ runs in every start. Most of Hernandez's success is due to his unorthodox finesse style. But this style favors the Giants. Baseball-reference.com keeps an abundance of stats, one of which is a teams offensive success agianst certain pitching styles. Against finesse pitchers, the Giants are batting .282, with 73 runs scored and 14 HR's. This is very significant if you compare it to their stats agianst power pitchers where they bat .193, with 25 runs and 9 HR's. Also, the Giants current roster has had great success against Hernandez in their career. The team totals vs. Hernandez is a .387 batting avg (41 for 106) with 8 HR's.
Wellenmeyer, on the other hand, has been bad, but he has had success against the Nats in the past. In 2 career starts, Wellenmeyer is 2-0 with only 2 earned runs allowed. Another positive for this matchup is the fact that the Giants are playing at home. In his 3 home starts this season, Wellenmeyer has a 3.48 ERA. This may not be great, but comparing it to his overall ERA it is very good. Furthermore, no one on the Nats roster has faced Wellenmeyer very much. As a team, the Nats roster has posted a mere .200 batting average (9 for 45) with 2 HR's.
My play is based on the fact that I expect the Giants to score on the Nats with ease tonight and I do not expect the Nats to be able to keep up. The Nats team batting average is 45 points lower on the road, and that gap is higher when facing a right handed pithcher. I'm not telling anyone to tail, but it's definitely worth a shot for me. My play SFG -1.5 (+185).
Other trends that favor this pick are:
·Nationals are 1-4 in Hernandezs last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
·Nationals are 0-5 in Hernandezs last 5 starts vs. National League West.
·Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
·Giants are 6-2 in their last 8 games following an off day.
The first area I looked into were each teams past successes/failures in similar situations as in tonight’s game. The Giants have had a lot of success against the NL East when playing at home. The Giants are 27-13 in these situations since 2008, but if you exclude their games against the Mets they are 23-8. Since 2006, the Nats are just 17-46 when playing an NL West team on the road. Furthermore, since 2009, the Giants are 26-7 in game ones of a home series, while the Nats are just 10-23 in game ones of road series.
Next, I looked at the pitching matchup. If you just look at the season statistics, it looks like the Nats have the major advantage. But if you look more closely at past stats, you will see that the Giants have the advantage. Livan Hernandez has been great this year, but in his last 4 starts vs. the Giants he has allowed 4+ runs in every start. Most of Hernandez's success is due to his unorthodox finesse style. But this style favors the Giants. Baseball-reference.com keeps an abundance of stats, one of which is a teams offensive success agianst certain pitching styles. Against finesse pitchers, the Giants are batting .282, with 73 runs scored and 14 HR's. This is very significant if you compare it to their stats agianst power pitchers where they bat .193, with 25 runs and 9 HR's. Also, the Giants current roster has had great success against Hernandez in their career. The team totals vs. Hernandez is a .387 batting avg (41 for 106) with 8 HR's.
Wellenmeyer, on the other hand, has been bad, but he has had success against the Nats in the past. In 2 career starts, Wellenmeyer is 2-0 with only 2 earned runs allowed. Another positive for this matchup is the fact that the Giants are playing at home. In his 3 home starts this season, Wellenmeyer has a 3.48 ERA. This may not be great, but comparing it to his overall ERA it is very good. Furthermore, no one on the Nats roster has faced Wellenmeyer very much. As a team, the Nats roster has posted a mere .200 batting average (9 for 45) with 2 HR's.
My play is based on the fact that I expect the Giants to score on the Nats with ease tonight and I do not expect the Nats to be able to keep up. The Nats team batting average is 45 points lower on the road, and that gap is higher when facing a right handed pithcher. I'm not telling anyone to tail, but it's definitely worth a shot for me. My play SFG -1.5 (+185).
Other trends that favor this pick are:
·Nationals are 1-4 in Hernandezs last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
·Nationals are 0-5 in Hernandezs last 5 starts vs. National League West.
·Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
·Giants are 6-2 in their last 8 games following an off day.
