Value in Astros +148 vs. Brewers?

[tzMoney]

I see value in Houston today - Here is why:

Milwaukee
Buyer Beware: 4-14 at home, Bullpen has pitched 19.5 innings in the last 3 games, 2-11 SU in the last 13 games, Brewers have allowed the third most runs in the league at 5.8 runs per game, Brewers have the worst hits allowed in the league, allowing 10.3 per game, Brewers are second worst in walks allowed in the league at 4.3 per game.

Starting pitcher Wolf has faced subpar teams this year with a combined winning average of .498 (this includes pitching against Pittsburgh 3 times going 1-2) Wolf's last appearance was against Pittsburgh and he gave up 6 runs in 6 innings. "I'm concerned about the fact that I stink. I'm not going to candy-coat it," said Wolf, who was 6-2 with a 3.57 ERA in 12 starts for Houston in 2008.

Pros for Milwaukee: is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Houston, Brewers are the third highest scoring team in the league at 5.2 runs per game and lead the league in hits with 9.5 per game. In 44 at bats against Paulino (1.52 WHIP) the Brewers are batting .364 with 16 hits, 4 HR's and 11 RBI's.

Houston
Buyer Beware: Houston is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games, Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road, Paulino is 0-6. Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee, Astros are the lowest scoring team in the league at 3.0 runs per game. Astros trail the league in hits with 7.4 per game. Astros trail the league in walks with 2.0 per game.

Pros for Houston: In 107 at bats against Wolf (1.63 WHIP) the Astros are batting .272 with 28 hits, 6 HR's and 19 RBI's, Astros strike out less than any team in the league with 6.0 per game, 3-5 vs. LHP, relievers have pitched 9 innings in the last 3 games. Paulino has faced teams with winning records carrying a combined winning percentage of .522 --- Tonight is Paulino's 9th appearance this year compared to Wolf's 10th. Paulino is coming off of a 6 inning no decision against Colorado where he gave up 2 runs.

[Herky]

I like Brewers.

[Terrapin Station]

great post tzmoney

[thebestthereis]

value stros right now, yes...but it's like going to a burger taste test and having the cook drop a load on both samples. they both taste like shit.

[SportsAddict]

I like the stros too

[lincecum]

I like the Brewers

[AL1322]

love the writeup but living in wisconsin i feel really good about the crew today 9-3 brewers

[tzMoney]

value stros right now, yes...but it's like going to a burger taste test and having the cook drop a load on both samples. they both taste like shit.

Agreed -- both really bad teams. However, if you can stomach a loaded burger go with a Houston special and supersize the fries and coke.

The situation in Milwaukee is getting worse and the Astros are looking to get out of the division cellar. Milwaukee's 19.5 Bullpen innings in 3 games will be the difference in this game.

Watching the line right now, the books have Milwaukee supporters in their crosshairs tonight. That money line is way too steep to have a Brewers -158 consensus at 64% - plus the public is 77% on the BrewCrew RL.

Prediction: The books clean the kitchen with a trap game by making Houston the underdog.

[Wilforth]

Prediction: The books clean the kitchen with a trap game by making Houston the underdog.

Were Houston supposed to be favorites here?

[tzMoney]

Nope. I'm simply saying they shouldn't be that much of an underdog. If you look at these two teams the line should be more like -115 Mil -105 Houston.

[EXpertcapper]

nobody happened to look at Paulinos era on the road 10.12 I got Mil in the run line GL

BTW i have over 9.5 to

[Whippit]

brew crew pitching vs houston offense is like movable object vs resistible force

if brewers tossers have any pride left they probably sport it here & get the "W"

Paulino sucks as bad as any brew crew pitcher, only difference is he ain't getting paid $10M a year to suck

GL brah but i'd save my $$$ if i was u