Thoughts on FLA/STL line movement on total

[Justin7]

Fla/Stl (Sanchez/Garcia) opened at 8 ov -115 at Oly... It's is currently about 7.5 flat... this movement surprised me - I thought the fair total was closer to 9.2, and more often than not, the lines move my way with a discrepancy that big.

I'm curious... why do you think this total dropped?

[ZBOIZ]

Just go over

[Justin7]

Believe me, I bet the over (8). And I feel like an ass.

[PDW]

Don't over think it.

[Sam Odom]

Don't over think it.

He wouldnt be a Math Guy if he didnt "over think it"

[rfr3sh]

id say cuz the public is hitting the under hard
look at the consensus and then look at the juice before it got dropped

5/19 9:39 PST -169 +159 -1.5 +129 +1.5 -140 OVER 8 +105 UNDER 8 -116
5/19 9:46 PST -169 +159 -1.5 +129 +1.5 -140 OVER 8 +112 UNDER 8 -124
5/19 9:49 PST -169 +159 -1.5 +129 +1.5 -140 OVER 8 +111 UNDER 8 -123

[playersonly69]

Most likely Hanley Ramirez wont be playing tonight

[Fishhead]

1. Two quality starters year to date

2. Henley Ramirez very questionable

3. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis

4.. Florida is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing St. Louis

[losturmarbles]

1. Two quality starters year to date

2. Henley Ramirez very questionable

3. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis

4.. Florida is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing St. Louis

you forgot to add

5. the total has gone under in 10 of florida's last 10 away games on wednesdays in may during an even number year.

[nosniboR11]

not to mention st louis has become an under haven this year

[Panekkkk]

1. Hanley should be back according to MLB.com

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100519&content_id=10194024&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

2. Garcia is ripping it up so far this year and Marlins have yet to see him throw. Garcia sporting 3rd lowest NPERA in the NL at 2.01, an xERA of 1.94, and an ERA of 1.42 and WHIP of 1.06.

3. Sanchez hasn't given up more than 2 runs in his last 5 starts and only Felipe Lopez has seen more than 2 AB's against Anibal.

So it's either shapin' up to be a pitcher's duel or Poojewels or Holliday are sitin'.

[Panekkkk]

I actually like Marlins RL :P

[Marginalis]

you forgot to add

5. the total has gone under in 10 of florida's last 10 away games on wednesdays in may during an even number year.

[Dank_Fire]

Jamie Garcia has been unreal @ home thus far

[Justin7]

It looks like pulling Ramirez would drop the total about 0.4 runs. That's a risk of betting into overnights... but as mentioned, it looks like he will play. The market is still telling over 8.0 to go to hell though.

[dodger33]

Jamie Garcia has been unreal @ home thus far

This!

[Bluehorseshoe]

I guess my totals before looking and I guessed 8 under 125. That line is in the ballpark.

[Chi_archie]

total seems to be right on

[pokernut9999]

Cards are not hitting much lately.

[BeatTheJerk]

Don't over think it.

This.

[ronald]

All I can think of is maybe Justin is a CARRE?

[mathdotcom]

Carré

[BeatTheJerk]

Jaime Garcia is 7-0 on the Under so far this year in games he has pitched ??????

[vitalogist]

Over for me. GL Justin.

[CarpeDime]

garcia is awesome, sanchez inconsistent but can be good, pitcher's park, stl offense overrated because of Pujols, florida offense can easily disappear especially on the road

having said that I'd take over 7.5, very very small. I did bet over 8 +111 very small, also took Stl -160 medium small

[Chi_archie]

Cards offense has been way below avg this year

[eatdust11]

looks like the over got steamed right at the end there

[BeatTheJerk]

Finally someone batted in a run. Unreal ................ That was sick to watch I can imagine for Justin.

[mathdotcom]

Justin are you ever on the right side of a play??

[Justin7]

Justin are you ever on the right side of a play??

I'm more interested in the ones that move against me than the ones that move with me.

I suppose I could post something like "Check out this play - my d*ck is big" every time I get a big agreement to impress you, but you strut like a guy with a much bigger d*ck, so I'll avoid that.

[Justin7]

Finally someone batted in a run. Unreal ................ That was sick to watch I can imagine for Justin.

Does anyone actually watch these games? I'm watching "Coach Carter" on FX right now. That is much better than MLB.

[mathdotcom]

I'm more interested in the ones that move against me than the ones that move with me.

I suppose I could post something like "Check out this play - my d*ck is big" every time I get a big agreement to impress you, but you strut like a guy with a much bigger d*ck, so I'll avoid that.

The plays you post don't win.

You obviously have no idea about stats or how to model.

Your other handicapping/gambling threads are wrong or uninformative.

You should focus more on identifying rogue books, I think that's where your comparative advantage is.

[Fishhead]

I'm more interested in the ones that move against me than the ones that move with me.

I suppose I could post something like "Check out this play - my d*ck is big" every time I get a big agreement to impress you, but you strut like a guy with a much bigger d*ck, so I'll avoid that.

[Justin7]

The plays you post don't win.

You obviously have no idea about stats or how to model.

Your other handicapping/gambling threads are wrong or uninformative.

You should focus more on identifying rogue books, I think that's where your comparative advantage is.

Please, Mathy... Don't make yourself look stupid. I know it is easy to get those signs mixed up. "+" can look like a "-" for units won and vice versa, especially if you're not wearing your glasses, or if you have been power posting too long. Get your facts straight before you bite the hand that feeds you.

If you can't learn to read results before the SBR bash, I might have to kick your lilly arse.

[Fishhead]