"Accu"score Betting Results Spreadsheet

[mcpdontknow]

I made this spreadsheet that maybe some of you will find interesting... maybe not.

It calculates the % of wins required to break even on a money line bet and compares it to the Accuscore predicted winning %. Assuming Accuscore is accurate, it calculates the expected value of each bet and will tell you what to bet on if the EV surpasses the threshold set at the top (separate Favorite and Dog thresholds in cells P1 & P2). I also added the four columns (J-M) to calculate how many units you would have won/lost had you bet on the games. Cell M3 gives the ROI you would be at.

With the current values, the record is:
37-27 +10.78 Units

But enough of my rambling. Check it out if you want. Let me know your thoughts. I know this isn't the most promising way to make picks but at the very least, it's a nice way to track accuscore.

[SKiLLsSoLoN]

Cool thanks, will have to look into this.

[Justin7]

Interesting. Can you review accuscore further back?

[mcpdontknow]

No. I can't because I don't know where to go to find old accuscore percentages. I have to log these everyday before they take them down.

[HotSalami]

Thanks. Looks good. Exclude worse than -160 and you'll be ahead. Tonight's plays look like NYY, STL, and LAD. All too rich for me. MIL looks good so far.

[bigsmitty]

Interesting. Thanks for the info. Cheers and good luck

[THE PROFIT]

I was asking about this the other day, someone was tracking this at the beginning of the season.

[THE PROFIT]

Does accu just have to have 51% for it to be considered the fav?

[HotSalami]

Well, they also use other factors, like the projected score. For example, tonight's COL/CHC game, it's 49%/51% and then their projected score is 3.9/4.1 with Hits of 8.8/8.3. Using OP's spreadsheet, you would not bet this game.

[Sawyer]

GL my friend but be careful..Accuscore may noy be accurate..

[HotSalami]

MIL wet the bed yesterday. Mcpdontknow, today I got MIL, MIN, WSH, BAL, STL, SEA, and ARI according to your spreadsheet. I'm leaning on leaving STL out because of my -160 risk cutoff. Let's do this!

[HotSalami]

Got smoked last night. Another issue is, I use a local book, so the odds Accuscore uses and what I get changes the picks. Either way, bad night.

[HotSalami]

According to the spreadsheet, today's picks are TEX, HOU, STL, SD. I use Covers, Preview section to get the Accuscore percentages. I use Accuscore's MLB Advisor purchasing page to get their lines. Good luck.

[whatsgood5]

Very informative, thanks!

[Old Young]

This is really good. Thanks for posting

[HotSalami]

3-1 for +2.0 units last night. 2-1 for +1.0 unit if you omitted STL for being over -160. Today, mcpdontknow's spreadsheet says go with WSH and ARI. ARI is just past my risk level of -160, so I will only play WSH. Good luck.

mcpdontknow, are you seeing the same thing? Thanks.

[mcpdontknow]

Oh wow. I really need to set up email alerts. Sorry guys but I haven't been keeping up since I posted it. I put it up that day after being discouraged since it seemed to be on a down slide. Plus other things going on right now. Just had to take a few days off... But really I didn't expect this much interest.

Anyhow, HotSalami - Would you mind posting the latest records you have? Are you still following this? I'll pick it back up and keep it going if anyone would like.

[mcpdontknow]

Oh, another thing. I have a separate sheet that also has columns for the runline and totals. I stopped using it after a few days because it was so much work to fill out, plus the straight bets were showing the most promise.

[HotSalami]

Hey. Unfortunately, I stopped. It was getting killed lately. Even when limiting risk by not playing over -160 plays. I believe when you first posted it was 12.5 units up, but then it went down to under 8 units before I stopped tracking. Thanks for the effort though. I have to work some OT to get my bankroll back. Good luck out there.

[HotSalami]

In case you are following this, todays picks following OP's spreadsheet are: HOU, BAL, KC, TB, & CIN. I hate the BAL pick as their bullpen has been decimated. GL.

[bztips]

in case anyone is still following this thread....
I think mcp's spreadsheet EV calculation for favorites could be interpreted the wrong way. Reason is that he's implicitly assuming a bet size equal to the odds, eg., for a favorite at -150, the spreadsheet assumes a bet size of 1.5 units, whereas for the underdog the implied bet size is 1 unit. Maybe that's how some people actually bet, but a fairer way to do it is to assume equal bet sizes for favorite and dog, in which case one or the other needs to be scaled up or down so that they're the same.

Anyway, I've independently been doing the exact same thing, trying to determine if Accuscore percentages are any good, though I'm using different data sources. I'm using thespread.com for Accuscore info (I can't find it on covers.com), plus the BetJamaica lines that are available around lunchtime (12pm on the East Coast) because that's the only period when I have time during the day to grab the data.

My very preliminary results (only about 8 days of games so far) suggest that Accuscore may be good ONLY for home favorites (as measured by the BetJM line). Using 12% as the minimum EV in order to make a bet, sample bets are 14-6 on home favorites, net return of 19%. Of course this will scare off some bettors who don't like to bet favorites (stupidly IMO).

The results for home dogs and any away team are terrible - 5-19 with a net return of over -50%!! Obviously these returns will flatten out as the sample grows, I'm waiting to see if the home fav holds up.

Further comments welcome.

[PayUpSukka]

any further results would be appreciated.