Bad_Cat's 2010 Season Thread (Sides & Totals)

[bobbyhazell]

Thanks for your work BC

[Bad_Cat]

Not a problem bobby, thanks for stopping by. I am hoping for at least a 3-1 day on Tuesday. (Knock on wood)

[rockman123]

Lets get em Bad_Cat
appreciate your work hope for a profitable season

[BigOrangeBrother]

Thanks for the plays Cat!! Let's get 'em!!

[bigmonay]

looks good Cat!

[teecee]

Why did you pass on the Rockies today, Bad_Cat?

[bigsmitty]

You got them today TC-I like the matchup a lot and if you're into trends I think Col is 7-1 winning game 2 vs ChiC after a loss. Cheers and good luck-thanks Tiger!

[Bad_Cat]

Thanks for the plays Cat!! Let's get 'em!!

looks good Cat!

Why did you pass on the Rockies today, Bad_Cat?

Colorado failed 2 of my filters for a play tonight. As i said i am going to tighten up the ML plays a little because 10-13 isn't acceptable to me.

Do you like Colorado tonight? Good Luck just like last nights game with the Cubbies it's a toss up meanwhile CWS passed for me with flying colors and based on what i am doing here is the strongest play today for dogs at that price.

[Bad_Cat]

GL smitty..No i really don't care for trends to much as the only reason to play a side.

[bigsmitty]

Not my only reason, just a point of interest. Thanks for the picks Tiger. Cheers

[Bad_Cat]

Oh, ok...Good Luck..

[Bad_Cat]

Good Luck today everyone!

[kidkonggolf]

Blue Jays are hitting like they were supposed to do yesterday...arg! BOL

[Bad_Cat]

Yeah i know kid. Where was this chit last night. The Sox finally broke thru in the 4th lets see if they can hold it. The most we can expect with the three under plays is 2-1 just need the Sox to win a game for us..

[DIRTYDIRTY]

BAD CAT looking good BOL to ya today my friend!!!!

[Bad_Cat]

Updated Record:

3 plays pending.

ML Record:10-13, 43%, -11.00
Total's Record:6-1-1, 86%, +495.00
Overall Record: 16-14-1, 53%, +484.00

[GGPLAYER]

Blue Jays are hitting like they were supposed to do yesterday...arg! BOL

Double slap in the face from Tor the past two days. Scoring in every inning today so far except the 5th. HR derby...ha as I was writing this they hit another one 11-1 now. I knew the under run would cool off a bit. I guess it's better then if the score was 5-4. Let's go WSox!

[Bad_Cat]

True GG with a 6-0 start with the unders you know that won't continue but as i said i will take a 2-1 day with the unders. Just need my only ML play today the Sox to win this one against the Tigers. They fit my criteria completely and with Garcia not losing a game in Detroit in over 7 years made the decision just that much stronger.

[GGPLAYER]

Excellent call on the ChiSox today

BTW there is a thread on just that Tor/Min under bet today. One posting made a interesting point of looking at past performance by a pitcher against a certain team as a factor to consider even if your system spits it out as a play. I guess Pavano had done next to nothing against Tor and usually get's lit up. Some other guy was talking about a bunch of other things you may want to check out too.

[bigsmitty]

WhiteSox nice play. I think they got rained out last night which ticked me off and thus no wager. Nice job and good luck Tiger.

[Bad_Cat]

Yeah i read that earlier, thanks GG. I use both statistical data he mentioned (FIP & BABIP) already but it was a good read. I am confident using the system that i am using the totals should hit at a rate no lower than 70%. I do not like wagering on a total lower than 7 but I will see what happens tonights with the Pads/Giants under 6..

[Bad_Cat]

Updated Record:

2 plays pending.

ML Record:11-13, 46%, +110.00
Total's Record:6-1-1, 86%, +495.00
Overall Record: 17-14-1, 55%, +605.00

[Bad_Cat]

GG I calculate both FIP and BABIP with all my unders but i do not play over's if a total is to low I either play the under or make the under a no play for that particuliar game. When i was introduced to the total plays a few years ago along with these ML plays i was intrigued and very interested now you can see why. Here is the important part of all of this GG. The under plays i post are not just looking at a stat or two and wagering on an under. I look at several statistical categories that we have already mentioned. Also the ML plays are not just looking at winning streaks and losing streaks and a pitchers era, ect. Their is alot more to it than that and that is why i didn't play the Brewers today and the Rockies tonight. My best ML play today that cleared ALL eliminators for me was the CWS.

[daneault23]

Yeah i read that earlier, thanks GG. I use both statistical data he mentioned (FIP & BABIP) already but it was a good read. I am confident using the system that i am using the totals should hit at a rate no lower than 70%. I do not like wagering on a total lower than 7 but I will see what happens tonights with the Pads/Giants under 6..

Both pitchers tonight for this game have been doin pretty good this season. Latos for SD hasn't given up any runs vs SF this season, and Sanchez has been pitching well, but getting no run support. I see this game being a 3-2, 2-1 type of game just like any other SD vs SF game lol. Latos almost threw a no no last time vs the Giants, so hopefully he gets a few runs scored against him and the Giants get the W so the Giants can finally beat the Pads. But the under hopefully hits too, since I'm playing that.

[Bad_Cat]

Thanks for your comments Dan. I probably will not play anymore totals under 7 as one of my criteria for unders is totals set at 7 or above. Once you get below that number the game for me is a no play but I am playing it tonight based on offensive statistics for both teams that offset the low number in my opinion.

[Bad_Cat]

I have read som posts today peraining to BABIP and FIP. FIP is important and maybe more than BABIP and NPERA. Interesting enough the pitcher with the best FIP so far this (as of today) is F. Liriano of the Twins (FIP = 2.12)

If anyone is interested i can and will post the NPERA, BABIP and FIP with the pitchers involved in my daily under plays if you want. If not no big deal. As i said last week i just didnt want to post every filter and statistical data i was given and that i use for all my plays as it would take all day to explain in a forum setting.

[Whippit]

Babbitt?

[Bad_Cat]

Now thats funny...

Good Luck to you..

[Bad_Cat]

Here is an example of statistical data that was influential in my under play for the game between the Angels/Rangers:

J. Weaver
NPERA: 2.50
BABIP: .304
FIP: 2.76

C. Wilson
NPERA: 1.97
BABIP: .253
FIP: 3.12

Then just apply these figures with the current line. These, by the way, are exceptional stats to support my under play tonight.

[kidkonggolf]

I realize your Thread includes only "UNDER-DOGS" but, SD-112 (Latos) tonite vs SF is bargain basement LOCK material that Ill contribute to this winning Thread. ..or take the heat for it afterwards. BOL ev1

[Bad_Cat]

Latos will be banged around real soon as his ERA will soon catch up to his FIP which is in the mid 4's.

[Van G]

tonite was an effin nightmare

[TopDog]

Yeah, I'm hoping for a Push on the S. Fran game Total Under 6.

Keep smiling. It's all good.

Food for Thought. I hate it for the people that laid -340 on Philly tonight. There
was Millions lost on that game for sure!

[TopDog]

Well, there goes San Fran under 6 loss.

[Bad_Cat]

No biggie..Every night wont be a winning night..Still + over $500 for the year thus far. We will get'em tomorrow.