Dukebluejms MLB season long thread

Dukebluejms · 05-11-10, 01:49 PM

Lets christen this thread with a few winners tonight:

1. Oak +164 (underdog blog pick of the day)

http://dukebluejms.mysbrforum.com/blog/19435-a-s-look-bring-colby-lewis-back-down-earth.html

2. Det +134
3. Atl -1.5 (+135)
4. CHC -111

Dukebluejms · 05-12-10, 07:09 AM

Great day yesterday at 2-1, +1.99 units.

1. Oak +164

2. Det +134 POSTPONED
3. Atl -1.5(+135)

4. Chc -111

Also, with the Oakland victory, my underdog blog picks are 4-1, +5.33 units

Dukebluejms · 05-13-10, 08:59 AM

Early afternoon action:

1. SFG -1.5 (+135)
2. Tex -1.5 (+105)
3. Det +128

Dukebluejms · 05-13-10, 05:01 PM

Adding:

4. Fla -130 *2 units*

Bones402 · 05-13-10, 05:15 PM

couple tough breaks on those run lines get it done tonight with the fish

Dukebluejms · 05-14-10, 08:41 AM

2-2 yesterday, -0.22 units. This is the first time in a while a RL has come back to hurt me. And what is going on with the Padres??? Don't they know they are supposed to be bad? Oh well, better day today.

Today's picks:

1. Atl -122
2. Cle +113
3. Tor -1.5 (+170)
4. Phi +116

Dukebluejms · 05-16-10, 11:45 AM

Sunday's Plays:

1. Phil -1.5 (+110)
2. KC -110
3. Cin +111
4. Atl -1.5 (+173)

Dukebluejms · 05-16-10, 06:21 PM

Sunday's Plays:

1. Phil -1.5 (+110)
2. KC -110

3. Cin +111

4. Atl -1.5 (+173)

3-0, +3.75 units so far today and 10-4, +9.24 units in this thread

Dukebluejms · 05-16-10, 11:45 PM

Perfect 4-0 day, up 4.85 units! Much needed...

Dukebluejms · 05-17-10, 03:31 PM

Monday Plays:

1. Atl -1.5 (+150)
2. Col +113
3. Cin +101
4. Bos +175

Dukebluejms · 05-18-10, 04:50 PM

Bad day for me yesterday. A blown save from Papelbon and an extra inning loss by the Rocks and I'm looking at a 1-3 -1.99 unit day. Ouch. Stayed away from the day games, but more plays tonight.

Dukebluejms · 05-21-10, 07:04 AM

Had to take a few days off due to work, but I am back to post today.

Friday Picks:

1. Atl -1.5 (+105)
2. Det +164
3. Fla -104
4. Min -1.5 (+120)

ThaTopMoron · 05-21-10, 07:31 AM

Originally posted by Dukebluejms

Had to take a few days off due to work, but I am back to post today.

Friday Picks:

1. Atl -1.5 (+105)
2. Det +164
3. Fla -104
4. Min -1.5 (+120)

I'm tailing bro. Let's get this

Dukebluejms · 05-21-10, 11:15 PM

Originally posted by ThaTopMoron

I'm tailing bro. Let's get this

If you tailed them all then you are gonna get a small profit at the least, and if you were smart and laid off the Tigers then you ended pretty well for the night. Thanks for the love. I'm hoping for a better day tomorrow.

Dukebluejms · 05-22-10, 05:59 PM

2-2 yesterday up 0.25 units. Night plays for Saturday:

1. Chc +136
2. Atl -1.5 (+105)
3. NYM +150

Dukebluejms · 05-23-10, 09:59 AM

A perfect 3-0 night last night, up 3.91 units. Let's keep it rolling today.

Sunday Plays:

1. Tex -1.5 (+125)
2 Balt +105
3. LAA +150
4. Atl -1.5 (+120)

Dukebluejms · 05-25-10, 04:46 PM

Laid off a small card last night, but back at it tonight.

1. Atl +115
2. Det -119
3. Col -1.5 (+156)
1. SFG -1.5 (+185):

I know the Giants have been playing poorly and that Wellenmeyer has been awful, but I think this is the best VALUE on the board. I stress value because I am not saying it is my strongest play in terms of my confidence, but the best bet for your money. I always enjoy betting west coast teams at home against east coast teams, which is why this one struck my eye to begin with. Now I know this isn't the same Nats team as last year or in years past, but it is tough to fly cross country and play well.

The first area I looked into were each teams past successes/failures in similar situations as in tonight’s game. The Giants have had a lot of success against the NL East when playing at home. The Giants are 27-13 in these situations since 2008, but if you exclude their games against the Mets they are 23-8. Since 2006, the Nats are just 17-46 when playing an NL West team on the road. Furthermore, since 2009, the Giants are 26-7 in game ones of a home series, while the Nats are just 10-23 in game ones of road series.

Next, I looked at the pitching matchup. If you just look at the season statistics, it looks like the Nats have the major advantage. But if you look more closely at past stats, you will see that the Giants have the advantage. Livan Hernandez has been great this year, but in his last 4 starts vs. the Giants he has allowed 4+ runs in every start. Most of Hernandez's success is due to his unorthodox finesse style. But this style favors the Giants. Baseball-reference.com keeps an abundance of stats, one of which is a teams offensive success agianst certain pitching styles. Against finesse pitchers, the Giants are batting .282, with 73 runs scored and 14 HR's. This is very significant if you compare it to their stats agianst power pitchers where they bat .193, with 25 runs and 9 HR's. Also, the Giants current roster has had great success against Hernandez in their career. The team totals vs. Hernandez is a .387 batting avg (41 for 106) with 8 HR's.

Wellenmeyer, on the other hand, has been bad, but he has had success against the Nats in the past. In 2 career starts, Wellenmeyer is 2-0 with only 2 earned runs allowed. Another positive for this matchup is the fact that the Giants are playing at home. In his 3 home starts this season, Wellenmeyer has a 3.48 ERA. This may not be great, but comparing it to his overall ERA it is very good. Furthermore, no one on the Nats roster has faced Wellenmeyer very much. As a team, the Nats roster has posted a mere .200 batting average (9 for 45) with 2 HR's.
My play is based on the fact that I expect the Giants to score on the Nats with ease tonight and I do not expect the Nats to be able to keep up. The Nats team batting average is 45 points lower on the road, and that gap is higher when facing a right handed pithcher. My play SFG -1.5 (+185).

Other trends that favor this pick are:
·Nationals are 1-4 in Hernandezs last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
·Nationals are 0-5 in Hernandezs last 5 starts vs. National League West.
·Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
·Giants are 6-2 in their last 8 games following an off day.

Dukebluejms · 05-26-10, 07:15 AM

Another tough night for me last night. I did hit my value play of the day, but that is all. I have taken some bad beats lately: 3 extra inning games Sunday, burned by the Col RL last night when they were up 3-0 late, etc. Oh well, gambling is a grind.

Wednesday's early plays:

1. Tex -109 *2 units*
2. CWS -1.5 (+142)

Dukebluejms · 05-26-10, 02:08 PM

Wednesday plays continued:

3. Min -1.5 (+170)
4. Cin -1.5 (+127)
5. Arz +220

Peregrine Stoop · 05-26-10, 02:12 PM

need a sexy girl avatar IMO

Dukebluejms · 05-31-10, 12:03 AM

Took the weekend off after a rough last few days, but I'm back for tomorrow's action.

Monday's plays:

1. PIT +122: Fading the public here, plain and simple. Ohlendorf pitches well agaisnt the Cubbies, and the Pirates are at home. Those are the only two things I could find to support this play. But I'm going against the squares here.

2. TOR +127: This is strictly a gut play. I know that Garza was rocked in his last start and most people will be looking for a bounce back game, but the Jays are a different team at home. This is a huge series for the Jay's organization to prove they belong, and it is not a fluke they are only 4 games out.

3. LAD -1.5 (+125): I just couldn't pass up the Dodgers at these odds. Billingsley has been pitching better and the Dodgers look like a different team. This DBacks offense has gone cold as of late. I wouldn't be surprised if this was a blowout.

4. ATL -1.5 (+145): Both starters pitch well, but I like Hanson in this spot. Blanton has a 7.30 ERA on the road allowing 5 runs in both starts. Hanson's home ERA is not great but that is skewed by one outing. The Braves offense is rolling, while the Phils are struggling. Lastly, the Phils are the team that has to travel to play their second day game in a row. Like the Braves.

5. STL -1.5 (+147): Garcia has been awesome all season, and Pujols has found his stroke. The Cards cannot afford to lose this game as well as the Reds are playing. Arroyo's last 2 starts in StL he has allowed 11 runs in 12.1 innings. The Cards current roster is batting .278 against Arroyo (69 for 248). Major trend here is that CIN is 1-5 in Arroyo's last 6 starts in StL. Love the Cards

Dukebluejms · 05-31-10, 11:08 PM

Great day for me at 4-1 up 4.61 units! Looking over tomorrow's card now.

Dukebluejms · 06-01-10, 06:22 PM

Tuesday plays:

1. Boston -1.5 (+135)
2. LAA -1.5 (+151)
3. Was +110

Dukebluejms · 06-02-10, 09:09 AM

Tough day for me. I was looking at a positive day until the Nats gave up the lead in the 9th... Damn. Oh well, at least I hit one and was down only .65 units.

Still capping for today. I'll be back later with my plays

Dukey888 · 06-02-10, 10:49 AM

good article i like the mets and the under

Dukebluejms · 06-02-10, 11:54 AM

Early play Wednesday:

1. Atl -1.5 (+155) *2 units*

I love Atlanta here. I know everyone knows that each team has been heading in different directions, but what I like the most has been the Braves killer instinct as of late. I think they seize the opportunity to stretch their lead in the division and rock Kendrick today. Kendrick has pitched great against the Braves in his career, but he has pitched poorly against most other competition. So which pitcher is he? I think he shows his true colors today and gets shelled. Lowe has returned to form as of late and I look for this to continue. With Rollins and Polanco out due to injury and the Phils resting Victorino and Ruiz, I think the Braves' lineup will be too much.

In looking at the trends for this matchup, I like the fact that Kendrick does not follow up a good start with another good start. He is 1-4 in his last 5 starts after he had a quality start in his previous start. He is 1-4 in his last 5 as a road underdog.

Too much offense from the Bravos.

Dukebluejms · 06-04-10, 10:39 PM

Plays for Sat:

1. CHC +101: Gut play. I like the Cubs in a 3-2 type grinder. Score some runs late on the pen to get it done.

2. CLE +156: The lowly White Sox at -166!!! Are you serious??? The Indians may not win, but they are well worth a 1 unit play at these odds. Talbot has shut down the Sox twice already this year, and Peavy has been inconsistant. Talbot has been great on the road, posting a 2.84 ERA and a 2-1 record. Indians have won 6 of 8 in this series and 5 of last 7 in Chicago. This is definitely the best value on the board.

3. TOR +108: I love the Jays here with Romero on the mound. Romero is 4-1 with a 1.58 ERA at home this season. The Yanks are a different team on offense when playing on the road. A big game for the Jays and I think they can win it. My only hesitation is that the Jays won tonight and it's hard to imagine the Yanks dropping the first 2 of a series, but its a gut play.

4. CIN -1.5 (+130): I like the Reds tomorrow, but the Nats scare me at home. I think the Reds should win by 2, so I'm leaning RL for the better odds. Too much offense for the Reds and they definitely have the advantage in starting pitching.

5. LAD -1.5 (+185): This would be a gut play as well. A lot will depend on what happens in tonight's game. My reasoning is that while Hanson has posted great numbers in his last few starts, he has not looked great doing it. He has struggled with command, which would kill him against a Dodgers lineup that has a bunch of very good hitters. The Braves struggle on the West Coast, and I could see them getting beat pretty handily tomorrow.

4-0 start ain't bad... up 4.95 units.

Dukebluejms · 06-04-10, 11:09 PM

Went ahead with all of these. Of these plays, CIN and TOR are by far the strongest.

Dukebluejms · 06-06-10, 12:49 AM

Well, the Dodgers let me down. But as a Braves fan I'll take it. Went 4-1 on the day, up 3.95 units.