Mon, May 10 Value Plays

[curious]

Pirates -110 3.3 to win 3
Rays -155 4.65 to win 3
Braves -145 4.35 to win 3

[bigsmitty]

Interesting picks-couple of questions: Is OHLENDORF good enough to overcome Cin's seemingingly better overall stats? 2) Agreed on TB 3) Can't really come down on Atl or Mil-same idea, is Hanson good enough to oversome Mil's better Runs/Runs against avg? Wondering your thoughts, read your post on the starting pitcher formula and found it very interesting. Cheers

[curious]

Interesting picks-couple of questions: Is OHLENDORF good enough to overcome Cin's seemingingly better overall stats? 2) Agreed on TB 3) Can't really come down on Atl or Mil-same idea, is Hanson good enough to oversome Mil's better Runs/Runs against avg? Wondering your thoughts, read your post on the starting pitcher formula and found it very interesting. Cheers

I know this will sound crazy but I don't look at the hitting. I look for mismatches in the pitching matchup.

Here are the matchups for these 3 plays:
Cin Pit 6.14 3.6
Tam Laa 2.09 5.3
Atl Mil 2.83 8.46

In my opinion Atlanta is the strongest play of these.

I used to spend hours and hours capping games looking at large numbers of stats. I decided that there is just too much noise. I wanted to try something that makes large mismatches stand out at a glance.

I am experimenting with this approach of looking for large mismatches in the starting pitching where the juice isn't prohibitive. Seems to be working so far. And it doesn't take very long to cap the games.

[bigsmitty]

Nice approach. I'll try and tail some of your picks if they are posted and jive with some stuff in my mind I am compelled to take into account. Cheers and I'll be watching.

[Wilforth]

Good to see you again. BOL

[curious]

Pirates -110 3.3 to win 3 Loss -3.3
Rays -155 4.65 to win 3 Loss -4.65
Braves -145 4.35 to win 3 Win +3

1-2 -4.95 Units