Sheffields System Tracking Thread

[sheffield77]

This is a new system Ive been working on i think its ready to be put into play

Sunday's Plays
Padres 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Nationals 1 unit to win 1.38 units
Blue Jays 1 unit to win 1.75 units
Houston 1.68 units to win 1 unit

This system will have a lot of plays daily and it should scratch out a positive one or two units a day. I'm not going for winning % here i am just going with mispriced odds based on the % chance a team has of winning a game. For example the nationals i have at 49% at winning the game so obviously +138 is a good value play.

Wish me luck fellas

[mrkron]

New system or have you tested it?

[sheffield77]

i have tested it. It was up 9.32 units last week

[sheffield77]

Adding Three more Plays
Yankees -130 Risking 1.3 to win 1
Marlins +145 1 to win 1.45
Indians +113 1 to win 1.13

[sixersbbiv]

GL on your picks today

[sheffield77]

GL on your picks today

thanks

[thebestthereis]

why are nationals 49% to win instead of 55% or 41% or anything else for that matter?

[sheffield77]

because when i run the numbers that's what i come up with.. It's a system that tells me based on the model Ive constructed the % chance a team has of winning a game. Then i see if the play is worth playing based on the line the team has

[sheffield77]

Sunday's Plays
Padres 1.15 units to win 1 unit LOSS
Nationals 1 unit to win 1.38 units WIN
Blue Jays 1 unit to win 1.75 units LOSS
Houston 1.68 units to win 1 unit WIN

System Early Picks 2-2 +.23 Units

[incomeraise]

i have tested it. It was up 9.32 units last week

so have u just tested it for last week? or for a longer period of time, and if so how did it do in terms of units?

[sheffield77]

Adding Three more Plays
Yankees -130 Risking 1.3 to win 1 LOSS
Marlins +145 1 to win 1.45 LOSS
Indians +113 1 to win 1.13 LOSS

Overall Record 2-5 -3.07 Units

Oh well the system will even out over time. Not the way i wanted to start off tho

[sheffield77]

Mondays Plays
Padres +145 risking 1 to win 1.45
Pirates +190 risking 1.5 to win 2.85 (severe Mispriced line have Pirates at 42% to win)
Texas -133 risking 1.33 to win 1
Cubs -157 risking 1.57 to win 1
Angels -190 risking 2.8 to win 2 (Severe Misprice)

[sheffield77]

Mondays Plays
Padres +145 risking 1 to win 1.45 LOSS
Pirates +190 risking 1.5 to win 2.85 (severe Mispriced line have Pirates at 42% to win) LOSS
Texas -133 risking 1.33 to win 1 LOSS
Cubs -157 risking 1.57 to win 1 WIN
Angels -190 risking 2.8 to win 2 (Severe Misprice) WIN

NET -.83 on the day

YTD 4-8 -3.9 UNITS

[sheffield77]

Tuesday's Early Plays
Toronto -102 Risking 1.02 to win 1
Orioles +162 Risking 1 to win 1.62

[melissaphillips]

good luck!!

[sheffield77]

Tuesday's Late Plays
Brewers -230 Risking 2.3 to win 1
Washington +145 Risking 1 to win 1.45
Reds +126 Risking 1 to win 1.26
Royals -200 Risking 3 to win 2 (Severe Misprice)
Cards -178 Risking 5.34 to win 3 (Very Severe Misprice)
Phillies -136 Risking 1.36 to win 1

[sheffield77]

Tuesday's Early Plays Toronto -102 Risking 1.02 to win 1 LOSS
Orioles +162 Risking 1 to win 1.62 WIN

Tuesday's Late Plays
Brewers -230 Risking 2.3 to win 1 LOSS
Washington +145 Risking 1 to win 1.45 WIN
Reds +126 Risking 1 to win 1.26 WIN
Royals -200 Risking 3 to win 2 (Severe Misprice) TOUGH LOSS
Cards -178 Risking 5.34 to win 3 (Very Severe Misprice) WIN
Phillies -136 Risking 1.36 to win 1 LOSS

Total -.35 units 4-4 on the day

Tough day seeing as brewers and royals blew late leads which would to lead to a gain of around 8 units if they could holdon

YTD 8-12 -4.25 units

[sheffield77]

Wednesday's Early Plays
Pirates +138 Risking 1 to win 1.38
Nationals +175 Risking 1 to win 1.75

[sheffield77]

Adding
Giants -151 Risking 3.02 to win 2 (Severe Misprice)

[sheffield77]

Wednesday's Early Plays Pirates +138 Risking 1 to win 1.38 WIN
Nationals +175 Risking 1 to win 1.75 WIN

Adding Giants -151 Risking 3.02 to win 2 PENDING(Severe Misprice)

Today-2-0 Pending


Tonight we have a very favorable card with some major mispriced lines.
Night Plays
Angels -170 Risking 5.1 to win 3 (Very Severe Misprice)
Toronto +132 Risking 2 to win 2.64 (Severe Misprice)
Oakland +143 Risking 2 to win 2.86 (Severe Misprice)
White Sox +110 Risking 1 to win 1.1
Cardinals -152 Risking 1.52 to win 1

[sheffield77]

Today-2-0 Pending


Tonight we have a very favorable card with some major mispriced lines.
Night Plays
Angels -170 Risking 5.1 to win 3 WIN(Very Severe Misprice)
Toronto +132 Risking 2 to win 2.64 LOSS(Severe Misprice)
Oakland +143 Risking 2 to win 2.86 LOSS (Severe Misprice)
White Sox +110 Risking 1 to win 1.1 LOSS
Cardinals -152 Risking 1.52 to win 1 WIN

Wednesday 4-4 -.87 units

[sheffield77]

I was on Vacation but now im back lets hope this respite will be enough to get the system back in the groove

Tuesday's Plays
Washington +128 Risking 1 to win 1.28
Tigers +142 Risking 1 to win 1.42
Pirates +112 Risking 1 to win 1.12
Blue Jays +150 Risking 3 to win 4.5 (Very Severe Misprice)
Rangers -180 Risking 3.6 to win 2 (Severe Misprice)
Royals Risking -115 1.15 to win 1
Cardinals -245 Risking 2.45 to win 1
Rays Risking -115 2.3 to win 2 (Severe Misprice)
Giants -152 Risking 3.04 to win 2 (Severe Misprice)

YTD 12-14 -5.12 Units All Plays
Severe Misprices 1-4 -8.02 Units
Very Severe Misprices 2-0 +6 Units

[melissaphillips]

[playersonly69]

Severe Misprices
Very Severe Misprices



That shit is classic!!!!