Why is it so hard to win at MLB?

jackpot269 · 04-19-10, 04:06 AM

Tough day !! I bet little bases but this happens to me and im guessing most in all sports !! Things will hopefuly turn around !!!!! GL

robert_wrath · 04-19-10, 04:28 AM

Originally posted by Samuraifan

I was going fairly well over the last couple days till today...

3 Loss (ALL RL -1.5)
1 Push

Current MLB Record:

Win Percentage 36.36% | 4-7-1 | Net: -$73.50

New York Mets At St. Louis Cardinals (U8) I Mets: 3 Cardinals: 5 | TOTAL: 8 PUSH
Tampa Bay Rays At *Boston Red Sox I Rays:7 Red Sox: 1 | LOSS
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim At *Toronto Blue Jays | Angels: 3 Jays: 1 | LOSS
Colorado Rockies At *Atlanta Braves | Rockies: 3 Braves: 4 | LOSS

I just want to avoid many more losing days like this, does anyone got some Tips they can share when it comes to MLB? I believe many are inclined to go with some 'chase' system, some never use RL etc.

What do you think is a great way to cash with with MLB?

Your betting GREEDY for the big payout. The RunLine wagers are kiling you. Accept the lower payout on MoneyLine Bets.

Samuraifan · 04-19-10, 04:50 AM

So pretty much your saying, if I want to back the favourites use the ML and if I want to back the dogs use the RL?

PAULYPOKER · 04-19-10, 05:24 AM

Originally posted by Samuraifan

I was going fairly well over the last couple days till today...

3 Loss (ALL RL -1.5)
1 Push

Current MLB Record: Win Percentage 36.36% | 4-7-1 | Net: -$73.50

New York Mets At St. Louis Cardinals (U8) I Mets: 3 Cardinals: 5 | TOTAL: 8 PUSH
Tampa Bay Rays At *Boston Red Sox I Rays:7 Red Sox: 1 | LOSS
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim At *Toronto Blue Jays | Angels: 3 Jays: 1 | LOSS
Colorado Rockies At *Atlanta Braves | Rockies: 3 Braves: 4 | LOSS

I just want to avoid many more losing days like this, does anyone got some Tips they can share when it comes to MLB? I believe many are inclined to go with some 'chase' system, some never use RL etc. What do you think is a great way to cash with with MLB?

I am going to give you advice what you do with it is up to you......

I'm assuming you know all the ins and outs of basic sports wagering:

1. always expect to to have streaks one way or another

2. You will never and I mean never win every game you bet

3. apply 1and 2 to strict money management and you will succeed I guarantee you

gryfyn1 · 04-19-10, 06:08 AM

Originally posted by Samuraifan

So pretty much your saying, if I want to back the favourites use the ML and if I want to back the dogs use the RL?

No, just avoid the RL overall, just use it occasionally if you have a feeling that the game will be a high scoring affair.

Chi_archie · 04-19-10, 06:19 AM

you'll have ups and downs...its a long season, just don't bet a large % of your bankroll and you'll be fine

greenshark11 · 04-19-10, 06:28 AM

thats the way itll go... youll get on a streak and never lose it seems like

BobbyBaseballs · 04-19-10, 06:33 AM

The key to winning at baseball is simple.....I recommend you find these 3 biggest degenerate losers on this site and fade them......1. Jjgold 2. Samsncharge99 3. Beantownjim

Find them in a contest and get their picks daily you cant go wrong betting the other side. They hammer the chalk big and are drawing dead to coming out ahead in any given month.

But seriously, Baseball is the easiest sport to make money....Gotta have the love for the game though and be willing to watch it....I Got 3 tv's going at once during baseball season....It also helps if you played or coached baseball (especially pitching) growing up in my opinion.....It's the little things you can observe in pitchers that will tell you where their heads are at and what they need to work on. A guy can pitch 5 innings, give up 5 runs but had good stuff while doing it. You might be one of the few who noticed too. You cant count on some of these horrible announcers to see it. They will be telling you how terrible he was cuz of the outcome and they are just clueless 90% of the time.

Baseball is a lot about home value also, meaning sometimes the pitchers scheduled arent as important as the good price you are gettin on a home dog. Value is huge in baseball.

Finding the same overpriced pitchers every start they make knowing they will get bet heavy (the 3 most overpriced pitchers in mlb currently this season are probably peavy, dempster, and hamels) and shouldn't be such a big favorite. A guy like peavy in my opinion who might not only be washed up but is on a team with one of the worst offenses in baseball, is going to be a favorite and sometimes a heavy favorite for a while just because of his name and will most likely be a .500 pitcher for the season. Dempster as well. Hamels just sucks and is plain overrated on a good team. You get value betting against him all year long just look at last year's starts by him and prices he went off at and how much you make betting against him every game (you made a killing).

Baseball is all about VALUE, bettin underdogs, staying away from bettin favorites over -130, and playing the streaks. Ride the teams while they are hot, and pound against them while cold. Same thing with pitchers obviously. And oh yeh, don't EVER use due theories lol. That can put you right out of action.
Best of luck!

canon714 · 04-19-10, 07:18 AM

I rarely bet the RL unless I am getting the points. I just follow a few select pros and bet them.. Sac Lawson, Mike Hook, and Gil Alexanders forum/picks.

Even following these pros it is rough.

Jiggy Fly · 04-19-10, 08:06 AM

Well said Bobby!

Regul8er · 04-19-10, 08:12 AM

Its not that hard. Just stay away from teams laying more then -130.

HilltopTony · 04-19-10, 09:34 AM

MLB is the easiest sport to win money. I was posting picks last week and was looking for some followers but nobody was interested in winning money. I was 10-2 posting and 5-0 over the weekend when I didn't post (I quit posting because I am not wasting my time) I never take RL or anything over -165, you can't make money in the bases betting anything over -165!!! I have been doing this close to 30 years. I have been doing it SERIOUSLY for the last 16 years and have won much money 14 of those 16 years, with 2 years of very minimal losses. If you want to win PM me and I will send you my plays on a daily basis (no cost)

WvGambler · 04-19-10, 11:11 AM

I'd like to follow some picks Tony....just cant PM yet. New to the board.

HilltopTony · 04-20-10, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by WvGambler

I'd like to follow some picks Tony....just cant PM yet. New to the board.

Go to my MLB Picks thread I started and look at the picks. I gave rickbo528 3 games yesterday: DET +160 STL -130 OVER 8 BAL/SEA

2-1 night. I will start posting again if there is interest but I won't waste my time for nobody.

It seems that people like to follow the guys on here that pick 10+ games a day and keep updating their thread after they win or lose and double and triple up on units in a night game when they lose a game in the day.

I promise you that is not me! I pick 1-3 games a day and pick based on value

Sawyer · 04-20-10, 11:10 AM

If you pick your spots right, you can mike money even with laying -180, -200 favs..
However, if majority of your bets are -200 favs, then it will be hard to make money. Sometimes you gotta take the dog, sometimes you gotta lay the wood..

xxred_hottxx · 04-20-10, 11:36 AM

i use all line movements to make my bets. do not look at stats or try to cap games

PAULYPOKER · 04-20-10, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by xxred_hottxx

i use all line movements to make my bets. do not look at stats or try to cap games

When you say you use all line movements do you mean the line movement tells you where the sharp money is on or to stay away from the public side or both or none of the above?

DDT · 04-20-10, 12:05 PM

To me, the RL is a sucker bet. Everytime I have bet the RL I lose, stick to ML bets and you will be just fine.

Peregrine Stoop · 04-20-10, 12:30 PM

OP, I suggest you give up gambling until you put in a ton of study time.

suicidekings · 04-20-10, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop

OP, I suggest you give up gambling until you put in a ton of study time.

This. Do a lot of reading, and then make a set number of plays on paper (maybe 100). Keep a good record of how you do and break down your success on faves/dogs. Once you have those 100 paper plays under your belt, assess how you did objectively and modify your approach accordingly. Do it again with 50 more plays on paper with your new approach and if you haven't improved at the end of that, you have no business laying money as you'll just lose it. Repeat until you have a strategy that works.

MR PROFIT · 04-20-10, 12:52 PM

http://www.baseballpowers.com/baseball-betting-101/