TE [Thursday]

The Expert · 04-15-10, 10:44 AM

First game of the day is played really early today (18:05 CET), so I'm writing a short preview earlier than other plays. Indians hasn't been impressive so far, having poor 2-6 record but they've been screwed mainly because of weak bullpen pitching and I think that they should finally get a win, especially that they're in a good spot today. It's avoiding sweep situation with also a chance for first home winner (0-2 home record), so although Rangers has been theoretically a lot better so far, having 5-3 record, they shouldn't be favorites in here. I think that Harrison is getting too much respect after just one solid outing, in which he posted 1.50 ERA and solid hosts offense will hit him a lot in my opinion. On the other hand young Huff posted very same 1.50 ERA in first start this season and though he had great defense behind him, I expect another solid start for him, especially that he's underrated in this beginning of the season. Generally speaking Indians isn't a great team but they've been underachieving with some bad luck, that's why I'm taking them as slight underdogs.

Indians (ML) (@ 2.060 Pinnacle)

mart59a · 04-15-10, 10:47 AM

Thanks Bro...BOL

The Expert · 04-15-10, 11:06 AM

I really don't like to write the same again - it's third game of the series and I'm tailing Cardinals again, although they screwed runline bet yesterday, with extremely lowscoring 2-1 win. Generally speaking their pitching staff is working great - starters are lasting long and bullpen is red-hot, so as they're coming from a night with cold bats, I expect them to be hitting a lot better today. They're 6-2 right now (with 2-0 at home) and I think that home sweep in first series at Busch Stadium is enough motivating to see them playing with best effort. In fact their starter Lohse is better than his first start, in which he posted 6.00 ERA and I expect him to improve his numbers a lot, especially that Astros are averaging under two runs per game so far, being embarrassed by every pitcher. What's worse they're starting with Morris, who's already given up 3 earned runs in 2.2 innings in his first start and I expect this youngster to be struggling against one of the best offenses in league again.

Cardinals (-1.5) (@ 1.990 Pinnacle)

Another play which was played by me in previous two games of the series because it's another missmatch in abilities. Phillies offense is amazing and although their pitching hasn't been on roll so far, they're winning comfortably with theit batters being totally red-hot. They're 7-1 so far and sweep should be easily achievable as they won 7-4 and 14-7 against Nats at home, winning the road series on road already (11-1, 8-4 and 5-6). It really seems that Nationals pitching is simply too weak for them and they've got no problems with scoring runs at all. Guests are mediocre and however their offense didn't look bad, they won't win game with Olsen on the mound against such an opponent. It's Scott's first start of the season and I'm afraid that he'll be as bad as last season, which he ended with terrible 2-4 and 6.03 ERA. On the other hand hosts should shut down opponents a bit, having solid Happ as a starter, who didn't allow a single earned run in 5 innings against Astros. Easy home win, so runline should be covered third time in a row this series.

Phillies (-1.5) (@ 1.917 Pinnacle)

The Expert · 04-15-10, 11:15 AM

Reds are a fading material for me because although their line-up is really mediocre this season they're rated as an average team this season by the both public and bookmakers. Their offense seems to be incapable of scoring too much in my opinion, so final game of the series against Marlins should be lost as well as yesterday (3-5) and after first two wins in extra innings, I expect a 2-2 split in here. Hosts are priced @ 1.704 and is good enough for me, especially that Johnson is real pitching ace and he's expected to be rock solid with nearly no runs allowed and at least seven innings of pitching. He struggled in his first start, posting 6.30 ERA, so it's great spot for a quick bounce back. On the other hand Harang is rather mediocre and his 4.50 ERA, which he posted in first outing is adequated to the number with which he'll end the season I think. Hosts offense is good enough to hit him, so with Johnson on the mound, even four runs ought to be enough to get a win.

Marlins (ML) (@ 1.704 Pinnacle)

mdk02 · 04-15-10, 11:16 AM

like them plays

The Expert · 04-15-10, 11:20 AM

Cubs were really lucky yesterday with 7-6 win, although trailing 3-6 in the middle of eighth inning but they're generally a better team in this beginning of the season and I think that Brewers struggle will continue today. Cubs didn't start season good either, though their 4-4 record is slightly better than opponents 3-5 and it seems that their offense is working a bit better as well. I don't like Zambrano too much because he's mainly overrated, though he's experienced ace and I think that he'll continue solid outings and improving his stats after posting 54.00 ERA in his first start; now he's 11.28 ERA with 1-1 mark and I expect a similar performance to his last one (3 earned runs in 7 innings). On the other hand Suppan, though experienced, is typical inning eater and I think that he'll be hit a lot, especially that generally a highscoring game is expected (11.5 runs total line). It's his first start, so his form ain't known. Cubs are maybe overrated, though with -1.0, I kinda like them.

Cubs (-1.0) (@ 1.803 Pinnacle)

The Expert · 04-15-10, 11:27 AM

Rockies are really looking solid in this beginning of the season and although I don't like them too much generally as a team, I think that I should take advantage of their red-hot form so far. They're 5-3 with 4-1 at home and they've been much better than Mets in this series so far, beating them 11-3 and 6-5 - a sweep is on the way in my opinion. Pelfrey is just an average pitcher in my opinion, who's a bit overrated after 3.00 ERA performance against mediocre Nationals because his lifetime 4.56 ERA is where he really belongs. He had 4 walks (the same as strikeouts), so a lot of pitches are expected and bullpen should show up early, while it's not the best unit certainly. On the other hand De La Rosa is said to be a pitching ace and I think that he'll be one of the best National League pitchers this season, though being a bit overrated because of his 5.12 ERA lifetime. So far he's had 7 innings without an earned run against solid Giants, so another home start should look similar because Mets offense ain't too powerful - it's good but not spectacular. odds are low, though I can't see any other outcome than hosts win with Jorge on the mound.

Rockies (-1.0) (@ 1.714 Pinnacle)

itchypickle · 04-15-10, 11:29 AM

I'm with you on the Phils and Cards for 2 units each. My only plays until the Braves game tonight. GL

The Expert · 04-15-10, 04:19 PM

Braves (ML) (@ 1.840 Pinnacle)