Nats/Phils Have Gone Over in All 5 Games This Year

**Cougar Bait** · 04-15-10, 08:26 AM

I'm on the under 9.5

GL

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**teecee** · 04-15-10, 08:29 AM

I like the under as well, Cougar Bait, but as you can very well see, my totals record has nothing but blemishes.

**Cougar Bait** · 04-15-10, 08:32 AM

Originally posted by teecee

I like the under as well, Cougar Bait, but as you can very well see, my totals record has nothing but blemishes.

You're due. I also noticed Vegas was moving the vig not the number, so they like their 9.5, that should give you some confidence. The people who like the over will pay the extra juice.

**kc714** · 04-15-10, 08:45 AM

What is the rational with the under?

**Cougar Bait** · 04-15-10, 08:47 AM

Well sometimes you can go strictly by stats, and sometimes you have to fade them. It seems to me that Vegas knows you're looking at these 2 teams combining for the over in every game so far. They set a high number, but not too high, 87% of the public is on the over right now

Just a moment...

http://pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-stats/sportsbook-spy-insights/

And then they start to move the vig so if you want the play you pay more juice. If they were concerned about the amount of bets on one side, they'd move the number, but they didn't. GL with whatever you do.

**kc714** · 04-15-10, 08:57 AM

"fade them". Fade who? Thanks for the insight cougar bait.

**Cougar Bait** · 04-15-10, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by kc714

"fade them". Fade who? Thanks for the insight cougar bait.

Fade the stats themselves if they are obvious and Vegas doesn't move the line when the public pounds them (like the are right now)

Up to 88% http://pregame.com/EN/main/sports-be...-spy-insights/

Not trying to change your mind here, play it if you like it, we like opposite sides for different reasons and you could be right on the money. That's just why I took the under.

**kc714** · 04-15-10, 09:08 AM

Let me know if I am understanding this correctly:

Are you fading the stats simply because the public is pounding it? Couple that in with the fact that the line is not moving even though the OVER is heavy, and thus you conclude their is a value play in the UNDER?

I am just having trouble understanding the "fade" play by reasons other than simply being part of the 13% minority who fades it.

Thanks for the great help.