Dukeblue MLB Season thread

Dukebluejms · 04-08-10, 09:06 AM

1.St. Louis -107…..I have seen a lot of people on the Reds today for the simple reason that the Reds won’t get swept at home. I usually like to actually look into a matchup rather than make a play based on a generalization like that. The Cardinals are the better team, with a better lineup, and a better bullpen. The only chance the Reds have of winning this game is if Bronson Arroyo pitches a great game. Arroyo has struggled in years past when facing the Cards. The Reds as a team have lost 4 of his last 6 starts versus the Cards, with one of those wins coming in late-September last season after the Cards had already locked up the division. Also, Brad Penny has been very successful versus the Reds in his career. Penny has also been great in his first starts of the season. In the last 5 seasons, Penny is 4-0 with a 2.73 ERA and his team is 5-0 in those 5 games. Love the Cards to keep it rolling in this spot.

2.Tor/Tx over 9 (+105)… CJ Wilson has been a reliever most of his career, and today he faces a very potent lineup. Wilson will be a very good starter eventually, but I see him struggling to make it through 5 today. If this is the case and Toronto is able to get to the Tex bullpen early, this over should hit with ease. Both teams had middle of the road bullpens last year with each team having around a 4.00 era out of the pen. Another stat that I like is that 18 of the 29 starts by Romero last season for Toronto went over 8.5 (that’s 62%, so we’re in the money with that percentage). Overall, we have two young pitchers versus two very potent offenses and a surprisingly low total, should be a high scoring game. Especially in the heat of Texas, the ball will be carrying. I personally expect this one to be in 12-13 range, so an easy call on the over for me.

3.Phi/Was under 9.5 (+105)… This is more of a gut play than based on facts. My gut is telling me to play the Nats straight up, but it’s too early to be pushing it. The truth is that the over was 7-3 in Kendrick’s last 10 starts last season, and the over was 6-4 in Stammen’s last 10 starts last season. One stat that backs me up in this spot is the umpire Hunter Wendlestedt. In his last 10 games behind the plate the under is 7-3. He is notorious for a very wide strike zone that gives the advantage to pitchers. Also, a very obscure stat that I personally put no stock in, but it’s funny to look at and wonder who has the job of keeping up with stats like this: Under is 6-1 in Wendelstedts last 7 Thursday games behind home plate vs. Washington. Does anyone really think Wendelstedts strike zone differs depending on the day of the week? I doubt it, but I certainly hope he keeps doing whatever it is he is doing on Thursdays that makes him begrudge hitters.

Dukebluejms · 04-09-10, 11:36 AM

Awful 0-3 day yesterday, but did hit a late parlay to cover some of the losses. Better day today starting with:

1. Det/Cle under 8.5 (-105)

2. Tor +135

More to come...

Dukebluejms · 04-09-10, 03:05 PM

1-0 on the day as Det and Cle went under, Jays lookin good early. Away from the computer tonight, so the rest of my plays for tonight are as follows:

3. Col -1.5 (+115)

4. CHC +125

5. NYM -130

6. NYY/TB under 9.5 (-110)

7. Atl +104 - Fading the Public here and taking the better pitcher.

Again, all plays are for 1 unit

Dukebluejms · 04-09-10, 09:39 PM

4-3 on the day, and 2 late bullpen collapses away from a great day. Oh well, up 1.22 units for the day. More to come tomorrow.

Dukebluejms · 04-13-10, 02:17 PM

Good afternoon to all. The day is starting great for me. I have the KC at +126 (not posted in forum but in my blog that made the front page) and they are rolling right now. A few more picks for today:

1. KC +126
2. Tor -1.5 (+175)
3. Fla -1.5 (+170)
4. Balt +108

Dukebluejms · 04-14-10, 07:10 AM

Rough day yesterday for me. KC and BALT blew leads late, and FLA had bases loaded in the 8th after tying the game. Woulda, coulda, shoulda... Hopefully a better day today. Be back later with picks.

Dukebluejms · 04-14-10, 09:07 AM

Day Games:
1. CHC -136
2. LAA +181
3. DET -1.5 (+115)

Dukebluejms · 04-14-10, 03:26 PM

Day Games:
1. CHC -136

2. LAA +181

3. DET -1.5 (+115) Had KC yesterday and they blow up, and DET lays an egg today

2-1 with my underdog blog picks the last 2 days, and the one loss was yesterday's melt down with the Royals...

Dukebluejms · 04-14-10, 05:04 PM

2-1 so far today +1.55 units. For tonight I have:

1. FLA -1.5 (+160)

2. TOR +114

3. COL -1.5 (+110)

3-3 for the day, +1.15 units

Dukebluejms · 04-15-10, 09:07 AM

Ok day yesterday, but looking for better today.

Card:
1. MIL +162
2. LAA +158
3. PHI -1.5 (-115)

Dukebluejms · 04-15-10, 04:27 PM

Adding:

4. ATL -122
5. TOR -1.5 (+170)

Dukebluejms · 04-15-10, 05:52 PM

Tracking...

Card:
1. MIL +162
2. LAA +158
3. PHI -1.5 (-115)
4. ATL -122
5. TOR -1.5 (+170)

Dukebluejms · 04-16-10, 08:18 AM

3-2 day yesterday, but hit my 2 biggest plays in terms of odds so profitable day.

Early leans for 4/16:

1. NYM +230 or FLA +230: Too high of odds not to play one of them.
2. ATL/COL over 8.5 (-120)
3. KC +118
4. CHW -133

Dukebluejms · 04-17-10, 09:30 AM

No plays yesterday, and thank goodness. My leans were way off. Still capping for today, be back later with picks.

Dukebluejms · 04-17-10, 11:39 AM

Card 4.17:

1. TOR +100
2. MIN -1.5 (+105)
3. MIL -1.5 (+100)
4. ATL +120
5. PIT +120