Rubber arm syndrome, how to handicap?

[curious]

Pokernut said in a post a few days ago that blindly betting the OVER in baseball might be a good play because of, what he called "rubber arms" for veterans and lots of young pitchers just called up from the minors.

I thought it might be interesting to see what kind of ERA veteran pitchers had in the last month of the season the last few seasons.

Does anyone know where to find such data?

I'm not sure how to handicap rookies just called up from the minors in the month of September. I'm thinking that a lot of teams which are not in the pennant race anymore call up these young pitchers to "get a look at them" and not necessarily because they are a phenom.

Perhaps one way to do this would be to look at all pitchers ERA for the month of September who have below a certain number of innings pitched. Then compare their major league ERA for the month of September to their minor league ERA and calculate a factor to mulitply x their minor league ERA to apply to all rookies in the month of September for the current year.

Too late to be much use this year, only a few games left, but next year might be worthwhile.

Anyway, just a thought.

[EJandV]

not sure .
Looking at this exact same time last year on friday it was 11 - 4 under ruled . sat it was 9 - 5 under ruled with a push . sunday it was 9 - 5 under ruled again .
I left game score off on RSox game not sure why .
Was 10 - 3 over going back to wed of last year in last week of sept , 2 pushes .
This time last year is just some form of measuring stick nothing solid , it is just a reflection ...

[curious]

not sure .
Looking at this exact same time last year on friday it was 11 - 4 under ruled . sat it was 9 - 5 under ruled with a push . sunday it was 9 - 5 under ruled again .
I left game score off on RSox game not sure why .
Was 10 - 3 over going back to wed of last year in last week of sept , 2 pushes .
This time last year is just some form of measuring stick nothing solid , it is just a reflection ...

That is not what I meant. What I said was to look at each pitcher's ERA for September going back a few years, to see if that specific pitcher suffered from rubber arm syndrome in the past. If pokernut is right, some pitchers might suffer from rubber arm syndrome, some might not. What I am suggesting is to look at specific pitchers' ERA during September over the last few years and see if they do suffer from rubber arm syndrome. Then use that as a factor in handicapping the OVER in games they pitch.

[pokernut9999]

This week the over is 30-18-2. No real science or numbers behind it, just my gut feeling going in this week.

[curious]

This week the over is 30-18-2. No real science or numbers behind it, just my gut feeling going in this week.

I've read similar things before. So, I think the rubber arm syndrome is real.

Since the temperature usually cools in September and lower temperatures are usually better for pitchers, I think the rubber arm syndrome is even more exagerated.