Thursday's Front Page Picks (Sep 27)

Willie Bee · 09-27-07, 10:21 AM

Cash Kazmir, D-Rays vs. Yankees in Tampa

Game Time: 09/27/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

Written off and given up for dead by many earlier this season, the New York Yankees have roared back from a 21-29 record in their first 50 games with a 70-38 run since late May. But after clinching a playoff spot last night in a 12-4 triumph in Tampa, look for New York to be a bit flat tonight against Scott Kazmir and the Devil Rays.

The New York Yankees look to play out the rest of the regular season getting ready for the playoffs after last night's win over the Devil Rays. Since the All-Star break, the Yankees have been one of the hottest teams in baseball and currently sit at 91-67 on the season.

As good as the Yankees have been they have had trouble facing left-handed starters going only 17-19. Tonight they will be facing a good one in Scott Kazmir who comes in at 13-9 with a very good 3.54 ERA. Over his last three, Kazmir has been just about unhittable going 2-1 with a miniscule 1.00 ERA.

Tampa Bay, long out of the playoff race will be looking to take the rubber game of this series after winning Game 1 on Tuesday. The loss last night snapped a two-game winning streak. The Devil Rays will be facing Yankee right-hander Phil Hughes who comes in with a 4-3 mark with a 4.80 ERA. He faced the Devil Rays earlier in the year when he went only 4.1 innings and gave up four earned runs in a 9-1 Yankee loss.

Supporting Angles: Kazmir is 10-4 (+10.0 Units) against the moneyline as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last two seasons. He is is 13-4 (+13.9 Units) against the line vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Yankees are 17-22 (-18.9 Units) this season against the moneyline vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities.

After the win last night to clinch a playoff spot, the Yankees will be a bit flat against a top pitcher. I'm taking Tampa Bay in this one.

Free Pick: Devil Rays +122

Willie Bee · 09-27-07, 10:23 AM

Side with Smoltz & Braves on the Run Line in Philadelphia

Game Time: 09/27/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

John Smoltz is a seasoned veteran who is riding a strong stretch. That makes the Braves perfect run line candidates when Atlanta closes their series in Philadelphia.

Braves right-hander John Smoltz takes on the Phillies in the finale of this three-games series knowing Atlanta is 12-5 in his last 17 starts in September and 9-3 in his last 12 starts on Thursday.

He's also in commanding strikeout to walk form with three walks and 31 strikeouts in his last five road starts. Smoltz is 4-1 in his last five decisions, and the Braves are 6-3 in his last nine outings. His most reecnt four starting assignments have resulted in three Atlanta wins with Smoltz boasting a 2.00 ERA in the 27 innings of work. Look for more of the same here this evening.

Free Pick: Braves -1½ (+118)

Willie Bee · 09-27-07, 10:35 AM

Play SD Padres (+155) at Brewers

Game Time: 09/27/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

There will be a playoff atmosphere in Milwaukee's Miller Park tonight when the Brewers host the Padres. Side with San Diego and their edge in the bullpen against the Brew Crew.

The Brewers really let one get away last night by losing to the Cardinals in the finale of their three-game set. They lost the opportunity of closing the gap on the firstst place Cubs after Chicago laid an egg in Miami and lost their ninth straight to the Marlins. Milwaukee still sits two games in back of the Cubs, but their rival's magic number was reduced to three even though they lost.

Hoping to pick up a solid win will be Yovani Gallardo who has been one of the bright spots in the Brewers rotation this season. He comes into this game 9-4 straight up, and the Brew Crew has won nine of his 16 starts this season. That number includes a solid 5-2 SU mark in his Miller Park starts. Currently, Gallardo boasts a 3.59 ERA and has only given up 98 hits in almost 106 innings of work.

Looking to keep the Padres pushing forward will be Jack Cassel who will be making just his fourth start of the season. After pounding the Giants into submission last night, the Padres find themselves just a game out in the NL West and up a game over the Rockies and Phillies for the Wild Card.

With so much on the line here for both clubs, I almost find it impossible for either of these teams to be heavy chalk over one another. The value is clearly with the visitors here since neither club is trotting an experienced vet to the mound, and the Padres boast the much better overall bullpen. San Diego has been a better hitting team on the road this season, and the Brewers' bullpen has been letting them down on a consistent basis over the last couple months.

Back the visitors in the first game of this series, and enjoy the handsome return once this ticket cashes!

Free Pick: Padres +155

Willie Bee · 09-27-07, 10:38 AM

Back Brewers (-161) versus Padres

Game Time: 09/27/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Larry Cook | procappers.com

Yovani Gallardo may be a 21-year-old rookie, but he's pitching like a seasoned veteran right now. Back Gallardo and the Brewers at home in Milwaukee vs. the sinking Padres.

The Milwaukee Brewers get to throw their young right-handed ace at San Diego on Thursday.

Yovani Gallardo has become the clear ace of this staff since the All-Star break with a 9-4 record followed by his 3.59 ERA. Gallardo has a 2-0 record over his last three starts with just a 0.86 ERA for the Brewers. It is well worth laying the extra juice on Gallardo today when the Brewers need him most.

The Padres are 0-5 in their last five games against a team with a winning record. They dismantled the Giants in their last series, but now they have to take on one of the best lineups in the National League. The Brewers are 22-5 in their last 27 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Bet the Brewers and lay the juice Thursday.

Free Pick: Brewers -161