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  • ljump12
    SBR High Roller
    • 12-08-09
    • 113
    #1
    Baseball simulator system
    I'm writing up this thread to serve as a log for the baseball simulator I have written.

    Last year I used accuscores predictions and compared them to the lines, if they differed significantly i placed a bet. This year I have written a simulator from scratch using play by play day of previous seasons as a predictor. I will try and enter the predictions here each day, but please note that the simulator is a work progress, and has not been backtested. Each game will be simulated 10,000 times. Also, because of some important assumptions that were made in the simulator, I don't believe there's much value to the totals, probably only the sides as of now.
    Tags: None
    • balls2wall
      SBR MVP
      • 12-20-09
      • 2642
      #2
      that is cool man


      I am still struggling to get a really good grasp on spreadsheets by trial and error



      I hope it does well for you. Are you going to be playing these or just testing this year?


      I'll keep an eye out to see how it does


      BOL
        Comment
        • ljump12
          SBR High Roller
          • 12-08-09
          • 113
          #3
          Probably just testing for the first month at least. I may bet them small on my own, but not expecting much. The simulator still needs a good amount of work. It's been spitting out scores that look plausible though. I'll post the Yankees/Boston simulation later.
            Comment
            • ljump12
              SBR High Roller
              • 12-08-09
              • 113
              #4
              I put in the lineups for todays game...
              Home (BOS) Wins: 3605 Games
              Away (NYY) Wins: 6395 Games
              Avg Home Runs: 3.6492
              Avg Away Runs: 5.2422

              So you can interpret this as Boston having a 36.05% chance of winning, and NYY having a 63.95% chance of winning. Also the total is 8.9 Runs. Almost exactly the total of today's game.

              For what it's worth -- here's one of the randomly selected games out of the 10k, (The number next to their name is the probability that the event happens)

              Jeter faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.64052819037903119)
              Granderson faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.67894834959846984)
              Teixeira faces Beckett and gets a ('double', 0.078968650397221826)
              Rodriguez faces Beckett and gets a ('HR', 0.077989337751754012)
              Posada faces Beckett and gets a ('single', 0.13760518585709036)
              Cano faces Beckett and gets a ('double', 0.083884986608722026)
              Johnson faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.64913020064675031)
              After the top of the 1st the score is: NYY 2 BOS 0
              Ellsbury faces Sabathia and gets a ('single', 0.19658875103528448)
              Pedroia faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.65612208151389417)
              Martinez faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.66488402206393515)
              Youkilis faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.65300908506266997)
              After the bottom of the 1st the score is: NYY 2 BOS 0
              Swisher faces Beckett and gets a ('single', 0.09959422508480853)
              Gardner faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.71473396527285127)
              Jeter faces Beckett and gets a ('walk', 0.061042524005486966)
              Granderson faces Beckett and gets a ('single', 0.13811934207738455)
              Teixeira faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.6241593842241786)
              Rodriguez faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.63704352599744496)
              After the top of the 2nd the score is: NYY 2 BOS 0
              Ortiz faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.68743741671519842)
              Beltre faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.71067604198317214)
              Cameron faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.70071459712288087)
              After the bottom of the 2nd the score is: NYY 2 BOS 0
              Posada faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.65063491732178802)
              Cano faces Beckett and gets a ('single', 0.17967406523686991)
              Johnson faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.64913020064675031)
              Swisher faces Beckett and gets a ('walk', 0.097060049185645023)
              Gardner faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.71473396527285127)
              After the top of the 3rd the score is: NYY 2 BOS 0
              Drew faces Sabathia and gets a ('single', 0.12260141234758663)
              Scutaro faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.67581762072830398)
              Ellsbury faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.68714115629581807)
              Pedroia faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.65612208151389417)
              After the bottom of the 3rd the score is: NYY 2 BOS 0
              Jeter faces Beckett and gets a ('single', 0.21720654265554842)
              Granderson faces Beckett and gets a ('walk', 0.071168757917651024)
              Teixeira faces Beckett and gets a ('single', 0.13845519458091618)
              Rodriguez faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.63704352599744496)
              Posada faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.65063491732178802)
              Cano faces Beckett and gets a ('single', 0.17967406523686991)
              Johnson faces Beckett and gets a ('single', 0.15019811524789592)
              Swisher faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.6775830175616071)
              After the top of the 4th the score is: NYY 4 BOS 0
              Martinez faces Sabathia and gets a ('single', 0.17668131123768632)
              Youkilis faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.65300908506266997)
              Ortiz faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.68743741671519842)
              Beltre faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.71067604198317214)
              After the bottom of the 4th the score is: NYY 4 BOS 0
              Gardner faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.71473396527285127)
              Jeter faces Beckett and gets a ('walk', 0.061042524005486966)
              Granderson faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.67894834959846984)
              Teixeira faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.6241593842241786)
              After the top of the 5th the score is: NYY 4 BOS 0
              Cameron faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.70071459712288087)
              Drew faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.65135722439233179)
              Scutaro faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.67581762072830398)
              After the bottom of the 5th the score is: NYY 4 BOS 0
              Rodriguez faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.63704352599744496)
              Posada faces Beckett and gets a ('single', 0.13760518585709036)
              Cano faces Beckett and gets a ('single', 0.17967406523686991)
              Johnson faces Beckett and gets a ('double', 0.054268498072532652)
              Swisher faces Beckett and gets a ('single', 0.09959422508480853)
              Gardner faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.71473396527285127)
              Jeter faces Beckett and gets a ('single', 0.21720654265554842)
              Granderson faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.67894834959846984)
              After the top of the 6th the score is: NYY 7 BOS 0
              Ellsbury faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.68714115629581807)
              Pedroia faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.65612208151389417)
              Martinez faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.66488402206393515)
              After the bottom of the 6th the score is: NYY 7 BOS 0
              Teixeira faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.6241593842241786)
              Rodriguez faces Beckett and gets a ('single', 0.14168322408047684)
              Posada faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.65063491732178802)
              Cano faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.66296486889857742)
              After the top of the 7th the score is: NYY 7 BOS 0
              Youkilis faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.65300908506266997)
              Ortiz faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.68743741671519842)
              Beltre faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.71067604198317214)
              After the bottom of the 7th the score is: NYY 7 BOS 0
              Johnson faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.64913020064675031)
              Swisher faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.6775830175616071)
              Gardner faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.71473396527285127)
              After the top of the 8th the score is: NYY 7 BOS 0
              Cameron faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.70071459712288087)
              Drew faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.65135722439233179)
              Scutaro faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.67581762072830398)
              After the bottom of the 8th the score is: NYY 7 BOS 0
              Jeter faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.64052819037903119)
              Granderson faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.67894834959846984)
              Teixeira faces Beckett and gets a ('walk', 0.084715165360326639)
              Rodriguez faces Beckett and gets a ('out', 0.63704352599744496)
              After the top of the 9th the score is: NYY 7 BOS 0
              Ellsbury faces Sabathia and gets a ('single', 0.19658875103528448)
              Pedroia faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.65612208151389417)
              Martinez faces Sabathia and gets a ('HR', 0.024494614241794662)
              Youkilis faces Sabathia and gets a ('single', 0.14248785594407543)
              Ortiz faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.68743741671519842)
              Beltre faces Sabathia and gets a ('out', 0.71067604198317214)
              After the bottom of the 9th the score is: NYY 7 BOS 2
              The game ended in 9 innings: NYY 7 BOS 2
                Comment
                • TenBagger
                  SBR Rookie
                  • 02-23-10
                  • 34
                  #5
                  Sorry to say this but if your system is spitting out a 64% win rate for the yanks tonight, which works out to -178, there is something seriously wrong.
                    Comment
                    • ljump12
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 12-08-09
                      • 113
                      #6
                      This I know, there's a lotttt to be fixed with the simulator. For one i'm regressing to the mean with batting, but not pitching. I'm making pretty significant assumptions with base running also. A single moves everyone up one base, a double moves everyone up 2 bases. As i mentioned before, i wouldnt bet these. But I do think Yankees have the edge tonight on pure past statistics.
                        Comment
                        • TenBagger
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 02-23-10
                          • 34
                          #7
                          also home field is worth 4%, if two equal teams are playing home team should be roughly -117. For the yankees to win 64% on the road, that means that on a neutral field they are -195 vs the red sox. Just to put that in perspective that is very close to what the line is for the Phillies with Halladay vs the Nationals and Lannan. It just doesn't pass the basic smell test.
                            Comment
                            • TPowell
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 02-21-08
                              • 18842
                              #8
                              Yanks are stacked, Sox won't be that great this year. Keep with the simulator
                                Comment
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