Friday's Front Page Picks (Sep 21)

SBRforum Staff · 09-21-07, 10:20 AM

Red Sox and Devil Rays Over 8½

Game Time: 09/21/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

This one might stay under while the two starters, Boston's Josh Beckett and Tampa's Scott Kazmir, are on the bump. But once the bullpens enter the fray, the Over will cash in.

Our Friday night MLB selection is on the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Devil Rays scoring over the total down in the Sunshine State.

It looks like the Red Sox are going to make it interesting. Boston has lost their last four games, including a three-game sweep at the hands of Toronto, and their once-comfortable lead over their arch nemesis New York Yankees has dwindled to one and a half games. Now they have to venture into Tropicana Field, a place that has not been very kind to them over the years, although they haven't had much trouble there this season, nor against the D-Rays in general.

Boston's normally reliable bullpen has been very shaky lately (a 5.16 relief ERA in the last 10 games) and they will probably have to turn to that pen for at least two innings tonight as they are not likely to let ace Josh Beckett's pitch count get too high. The Devil Rays bullpen makes the Boston relievers look like a bunch of Cy Young winners as they have been absolutely putrid over the past couple of weeks. And Tampa will have a similar "play it safe" strategy for their ace lefthander Scott Kazmir as they look forward to next year and preserving the prize southpaw's arm as much as they can.

Kazmir has seen some runs scored in bunches when he's started games at home. In his past four outings in Tampa, there have been a total of 46 runs scored, or an average of almost 12 runs per game. Take the Over.

Free Pick: Red Sox-Devil Rays Over 8½

SBRforum Staff · 09-21-07, 10:26 AM

NY Mets -162 at Florida Marlins

Game Time: 09/21/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

The Mets will turn to veteran Pedro Martinez to apply a tourniquet to their losing ways and keep them from folding in the NL East. Back New York tonight on the road in Florida.

The New York Mets, now in a dogfight for the top spot in the NL East, look to bounce back tonight have losing to Florida in the first game of the weekend series. The Mets' loss last night combined with Philadelphia's win cut their lead to a slim 1½ games and put them 3-7 in their last 10 contests.

Tonight the Mets will attempt to stave off further losses when they send Pedro Martinez to the mound. After being out most of the season following shoulder surgery, Martinez has come back better than ever. In his three starts since his return Martinez is a perfect 2-0 with a microscopic 1.69 ERA. That will be a problem for a Florida team who is only 24-31 at home against right-handed starters this season.

By virtue of last night's win, the Florida Marlins snapped a four game losing streak and have posted a 5-7 mark their last 12 overall. Long out of the playoff picture at 66-87, the Marlins hope to play spoiler against a NY team that is 5-1 on the season in Florida.

The Marlins will send left-hander Scott Olsen out for his 32nd start of the season. Olsen has basically been ineffective this year posting a 9-14 mark with a 6.06 ERA. Over his last three starts he hasn't been able to get anyone out going 0-2 with a astronomical 13.07 ERA. He will be facing a Mets lineup that has hit lefties well scoring an average of 5.0 runs per game while hitting .287 as a team.

Supporting Angles: The Mets are 11-2 (+9.9 Units) against the moneyline in road games when playing on Friday this season. New York is 20-6 (+11.5 Units) against the moneyline in road games vs. NL teams allowing 5.3 or more runs/game over the last three seasons. The Mets are 18-8 (+9.5 Units) against the line in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.

Martinez appears to have come back to prior Cy Young form and is pitching for a team who needs a win. It's a high price but I'm taking the Mets in this one.

Free Pick: Mets -162

SBRforum Staff · 09-21-07, 11:18 AM

Take Toronto Blue Jays (+164) at New York Yankees

Game Time: 09/21/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

The Yankees are hot, but the Blue Jays are getting a great price with their ace Roy Halladay on the hill. Take Toronto as big dogs tonight in the Bronx against New York.

We are getting solid value here Friday night with the Blue Jays who have their ace on the mound.

Roy Halladay (15-7 ERA 3.82) has pitched solid against the Yankees this season with a 1-0 record and an ERA of just 3.21 over 14 innings. Halladay has averaged one strikeout per inning over his two starts against New York this season and he is simply the superior pitcher on the mound tonight. Halladay's opponents are hitting just .249 against him since the All-Star break and there is no pressure at all on the Jays since they are out of the playoff picture which will allow them to play better.

Chien-Ming Wang (18-7 ERA 3.82) has struggled against Toronto this season with a 0-2 record and an ERA of 9.90 over 10 innings. The Jays just swept a great Boston team and I look for them to continue their winning ways Friday night against the Yankees.

Free Pick: Blue Jays +164