Wednesday's Front Page Plays (Sep 19)

[SBRforum Staff]

Play Atlanta Braves & Florida Marlins Over 10 (+105)

Game Time: 09/19/2007 07:35 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

A nice price on the over with two pitchers that are both struggling is tough to pass up. Bet the Over tonight in Atlanta when the Braves host the Florida Marlins at Turner Field.

It's been a forgettable season for Florida Marlins southpaw Dontrelle Willis. Indeed, the "D-Train" has gone 9-15 with a poor 5.39 ERA and 1.638 WHIP in 32 starts. Note that the Over has gone 19-11-2 in those starts.

Willis managed to win his last start. However, he didn't pitch particularly well as he allowed seven hits, four walks and five runs in six innings. That leaves him with an ugly 7.72 ERA and 1.837 WHIP for his last three starts. Not surprisingly, two of those three games finished above the number. Atlanta's Chuck James has also seen two of his last three start finish over the total, recording a 5.02 ERA during that stretch.

Despite yesterday's game sneaking beneath the total, the Marlins have still seen the Over go 8-2 the last 10 times they faced a southpaw and a highly profitable 40-20-4 in this season's divisional games. Additionally, Willis has seen the Over go a perfect 5-0 the last five times that he faced the Braves. Consider a play on the Over.

Free Pick: Marlins-Braves Over 10 (+105)

[SBRforum Staff]

KC Royals -136 vs. White Sox

Game Time: 09/19/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Larry Cook | touthouse.com

Posting a 12-8 record with a solid 3.39 ERA so far this season, Brian Bannister gives the Royals the mound advantage this evening at home in Kansas City against the White Sox.

Brian Bannister has had a breakout season for the Kansas City Royals with a 12-8 record and 3.39 ERA on the year. He has given up just 144 hits in over 159 innings pitched.

White Sox right-hander Jose Contreras has had his worst season as a starter. He is 9-16 with a 5.81 ERA this year. Contreras has given up a ridiculous 212 hits in just 167 innings. Hitters are picking up on Contreras because he just doesn’t have the same movement on his pitches that he used to. The Sox are 5-23 in their last 28 games as an underdog. The White Sox are 1-8 in Contreras' last nine road starts.

The Royals are 8-0 in Bannister's last eight starts vs. a team with a losing record. Kansas City is 8-1 in Bannister’s last nine starts against the AL Central Division. Bet the Royals.

Free Pick: Royals -136

[SBRforum Staff]

Play Mariners -130 at Oakland A's

Game Time: 09/19/2007 03:35 PM -
By: Rocky Atkinson | rocketmansports.com

Seattle has the mound edge with Felix Hernandez going against Oakland's Dan Meyer. The Mariners also have the advantage in the bullpen for today's afternoon matinee.

Seattle is 9-2 the last three years as a road favorite of -125 to -150. The Mariners have a good hitting team as they are batting .286 overall, .288 on the road and .290 against left-handed starters this year. The Seattle bullpen has a 3.76 ERA on the road this year. Oakland is scoring only 4.1 runs per game at home this year and 4.3 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.

Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez is 7-3 on the road this year and 2-0 with a 3.66 ERA his last three starts. The Athletics' Dan Meyer is 0-1 with an 8.18 ERA in all games this year, 0-1 with a 12.14 ERA in his two starts at home this season.

Seattle is 12-5 overall vs. Oakland this year including 6-1 at Oakland. Hernandez is 4-2 with a super nice 1.96 ERA vs Oakland in his career. We'll recommend a small play on Seattle today.

Free Pick: Mariners -130

[SBRforum Staff]

New York Mets -138 at Nationals

Game Time: 09/19/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

Having lost five straight and six of seven, look for the Mets to get out of their slump this evening on the road and avoid an embarrassing sweep to the Washington Nationals.

Take the Mets to avoid the sweep on the road here Wednesday night as they are the superior team and I look for them to break out of their slump tonight.

Mike Pelfrey (2-7 ERA 5.22) gets the start for New York and he has an ERA of just 3.86 against the Nationals this season over 11.2 innings. Pelfrey has pitched solid since the All-Star break with an ERA of just 3.48 and has also pitched great in September with a 2-0 record and an ERA of just 2.70 over 13.1 innings.

Matt Chico (5-8 ERA 4.61) gets the start for the home team Nationals and he has struggled against the Mets this season with an ERA of 5.59 over 9.2 innings of work. The Mets have hit lefties hard this season hitting .283 as a team against them and I look for the Mets to grab the win on the road tonight at a very fair price.

Free Pick: Mets -138

[SBRforum Staff]

Arizona Diamondbacks -130 vs. San Francisco Giants

Game Time: 09/19/2007 09:40 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

It's been a tough year for Barry Zito and the Giants, and things won't be any easier today on the road in Arizona. Chalk this one up to Doug Davis and the D-Backs.

After getting shut out last night by Arizona, the San Francisco Giants look to take the rubber game of this three game series. The Giants, long out of the playoff picture, are hoping to play the spoiler the rest of the season. San Francisco currently sits in last place in the NL West at 67-84, a distant 17½ games out.

Tonight they will send one of their biggest disappointments of the season to the hill in Bary Zito who is having a terrible season at 9-12 with a 4.41 ERA. At home. Zito is 6-7 with a 4.68 ERA. That will spell trouble for him as he is going up against an Arizona team who has excelled against left-handed starters posting a profitable 23-16 mark.

Yesterday's Arizona win kept them one game in front of San Diego who has won five in a row. Arizona has struggled a bit over their last seven ball games, going only 3-4. Tonight they will send their own left-hander, Doug Davis, to the mound. Davis hasn't been the most impressive overall but he has done well at home with his team posting a 13-3 mark in his starts. He will be facing a San Francisco lineup that is only 21-24 againts lefties.

Supporting Angles: San Francisco is 16-27 (-11.6 Units) against the moneyline on the road when the line is +125 to -125 this season. Zito is 4-13 (-9.8 Units) against the moneyline when the line is +125 to -125 this season. Davis is 17-5 (+10.1 Units) against the line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons.

Zito has just been terrible this season and he is facing a lineup that has done well versus lefties plus is in the middle of a divisional title race. I'm taking Arizona in this one.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks -130

[SBRforum Staff]

Back Baltimore Orioles (+270) at New York Yankees

Game Time: 09/19/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Bill Young | touthouse.com

At this price and with the way New York's Andy Pettitte has struggled lately, the Baltimore Orioles are a great play on the road in the Bronx against the Yankees.

Baltimore is worth a shot today as a huge underdog to the Yankees. Yes, New York is playing great baseball right now, but this line is too much to pass up.

Brian Burres is no pushover as a starter for Baltimore. He is 6-5 on the season and 2-1 over his last three starts with only a 3.86 ERA. Andy Pettite has a 5.94 ERA in his last three starts while giving up 27 hits in 16 innings. He is very hittable and the linesmakers should not be giving the Yankees the win just quite yet.

The Orioles are 12-4 in their last 16 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. The Orioles’ bats will come to life today. Take Baltimore.

Free Pick: Orioles +270

[SBRforum Staff]

San Diego Padres (-159) versus Pittsburgh Pirates

Game Time: 09/19/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Chris Young is regaining some of the form that made him one of the NL's top hurlers before a July injury. Play the Padres at home in San Diego against the Pirates.

Chris Young, the San Diego Padres starting pitcher for this tilt against the Pittsburgh Pirates, has struggled a little bit since injuring his oblique muscle back in late July.

The healthiest he has looked since than was in his last start, as the big 6-10 righty hurler was getting his fastball into the 90s and had great control while allowing three runs on six hits. The coaching staff was very happy with that outing, and I myself was impressed and think he is ready to return to his overpowering ways that has seen him garner the NL's second best ERA at 2.77.

Note: In 12 starts at home this season, Young owns an extremely stingy 1.47 ERA and is 3-0 along with a minuscule 0.76 ERA in three career starts vs the Pirates. Play on San Diego.

Free Pick: Padres -159

[SBRforum Staff]

Back Brewers -139 at Astros

Game Time: 09/19/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Milwaukee Brewers go for the road series sweep tonight in Houston against an Astros squad that is simply playing out the string. Back the Brewers tonight at Minute Maid Park.

Milwaukee has won four in a row and seven of their last 10 games. The Brewers are 5-1 in their last six road games vs. a right-handed starter. In their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record they are 12-5.

The Astros are 4-12 in their last 16 games. In their last 52 games as an underdog Houston is 16-36. The Astros have lost nine of their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Milwaukee is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between the two teams. Play on the Brewers.

Free Pick: Brewers -139

[SBRforum Staff]

Nationals +125 versus NY Mets

Game Time: 09/19/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

The Mets are in a tailspin from which they may not recover, blowing a season largely spent on top in the NL East. Back the Nationals at home in Washington tonight vs. New York.

Two weeks ago, the Mets were freewheeling toward a division crown and life was great. Two weeks later, the Mets are suddenly not even assured of a playoff spot as they've come completely unhinged.

They suddenly can't hit in the clutch or catch the ball and their bullpen has been horrid. I can't see Mike Pelfrey playing the stopper role and the lowly Nationals aren't rolling over for them. The pressure is really on the Mets at this point and they're worth fading until they figure out what's going on.

I'll go with Matt Chico and the Nats to spring the upset.

Free Pick: Nationals +125