Thursday's Front Page Picks (Sep 13)

Willie Bee · 09-13-07, 10:17 AM

Bet Burnett, Blue Jays -107 vs Yankees

Game Time: 09/13/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

A.J. Burnett has been strong since returning from the DL and is a much better pitcher at his home park in Toronto. Back the Blue Jays as favorites tonight vs. the NY Yankees.

The Toronto Blue Jays send fireballing right-hander A.J. Burnett to the hill against the Pinstripes knowing his home ERA (2.74) is a run-and-a-half better than his road ERA (4.24) this season.

Burnett has been solid in his six starts since coming off the DL in mid-August. He is 3-1 and the Jays are 4-2 in those half-dozen outings, with Burnett allowing two or fewer earned runs in five of the appearances. In the 42.2 innings of work, Burnett has a 1.89 ERA and 38 strikeouts while surrendering just 21 hits.

With Burnett in commanding current form, look for Toronto to take down the Yankees here this evening.

Free Pick: Blue Jays -107

Willie Bee · 09-13-07, 10:18 AM

Cash Cincinnati Reds (-130) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Game Time: 09/13/2007 12:35 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Aaron Harang gives the Reds a strong advantage on the mound this afternoon in their home contest against the Cardinals. Lay the chalk in Cincinnati vs. St. Louis.

Aaron Harang (14-4, 3.64 ERA), the Cincinnati Reds' starting hurler this afternoon against the St. Louis Cardinals, is always a consistent contributor and workhorse in his team's rotation, as is evident by going 200 or more innings in three consecutive seasons.

On the flip side the Cardinals will send a very inconsistent Kip Wells (6-16, 5.65 ERA) to the hill. The Cards righty has lost three straight starts and has garnered a ugly 10.80 ERA during that span. Wells is 2-9 in his career along with a hefty 4.80 ERA against the Reds. Bottom line: The Reds bats have been lighting up opponents of late averaging 6.2 RPG in their last five, and with Wells on the hill, I'm expecting the Reds to equal or eclipse their current five-game production average, while Harang keeps Cardinal hitters from reciprocating with any significant offensive onslaught of their own.

Final Notes & Key Trends: St. Louis has lost eight straight road games. The Reds are 15-2 in their last 17 games as -110 to -150 home favorites. Play on the Reds.

Free Pick: Reds -130

Willie Bee · 09-13-07, 10:18 AM

Devil Rays and Mariners Over 10

Game Time: 09/13/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

Seattle's Jeff Weaver is 9-2 on the Over in night games while Tampa's Jason Hammel sports an ugly 7.04 ERA on the road. Play the Over tonight in the Mariners, Devil Rays contest.

After a tough loss to the Boston Red Sox last night, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays travel all the way across the country to take on the Mariners in Seattle. Tampa Bay, long out of the playoff race, now looks to further dim Seattle's hopes of postseason in Game 1 of their four-game weekend series.

The Devil Rays have padded bankrolls this season for total wagers going 42-18 when playing on a grass field. That spells problems for Seattle hurler Jeff Weaver who has really struggled this season. Weaver comes in with a high 6.02 ERA while the over has gone 13-8. Over his last three starts he has really gotten pounded with a sky high 10.95 ERA while the over is a perfect 3-0.

The Seattle Mariners once in the thick of the playoff picture have taken a nose dive and now find themselves 9½ games out of first in the AL West and 6½ in back of the Yankees in the Wild Card Race. The Mariners did win last night but it was only their third win in their last 13 games.

The Over has been the way to go with the Mariners as well as they are a profitable 55-41 in night games this season. Tonight they will be facing right-hander Jason Hammel who has really struggled on the road with a 7.04 ERA.

Supporting Angles: Tampa Bay is 18-9 Over (+8.4 Units) as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season. The Devil Rays are 18-6 Over (+11.8 Units) on the road when the total is 10 to 10½ this season. Weaver is 9-2 Over (+7.1 Units) in night games this season.

Two teams in this one that struggle to put numbers in the "W" column but can put runs on the board while both pitchers have proven to have trouble getting hitters out. I'm taking the Over in this one.

Free Pick: Devil Rays-Mariners Over 10 (-110)

Willie Bee · 09-13-07, 10:58 AM

NY Yankees -103 at Blue Jays

Game Time: 09/13/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

With New York owning an 8-2 record the last 10 times they have met Toronto, the Yankees are the play this evening on the road in Canada against AJ Burnett and the Blue Jays.

Both teams were expected to compete for postseason play when the season started. The Yankess are now competing while the Blue Jays will have to watch again.

The Yankees have won their last five road games. In their last 53 games vs. right-handed starter they are 38-15. In their last 58 games following a win, New York is 41-17.

The Jays are 1-5 in their last six games as a dog. Toronto has dropped seven of their last 10, five straight. In A.J. Burnett's last five starts vs. a team with a winning record the Blue Jays are 0-5. New York has won eight of the last 10 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Yankees.

Free Pick: Yankees -103