Hump Day Front Page Picks (Sep 12)

[Willie Bee]

Batista, Mariners (+110) vs. A's

Game Time: 09/12/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

Seattle's slide in the last few weeks has to end sometime, and it might as well be tonight with Miguel Batista on the mound. Make your play on the Mariners hosting the Athletics.

Alright, enough is enough! The downward spiral this Mariners club has been on over the last month is getting ridiculous, and last night had to be the final straw.

Seattle fought back from a 4-1 deficit in the fifth inning only to see the A’s fire right back with three runs of their own in the top of the sixth. It’s gotten to the point where this team has to look at themselves in the mirror and decide whether to put on a jock or a sun dress for tonight’s game. Pony up men, and take advantage of this Oakland team who you’ve beaten like a red headed stepchild all season long.

The M’s come into the game 10-5 against the Athletics this season, and that includes last night’s woeful defeat. Miguel Batista owns the most wins (13), and has pitched the most innings than any other starter on Seattle’s staff. He’s a respectable 7-6 at Safeco with a 4.34 ERA, and the Mariners have won eight of his 14 home starts this season.

Dan Haren has some phenomenal numbers against tSeattle in his career, but he comes into this start throwing his worst ball of the season. He’s 0-3 over his last three starts with a bloated 7.02 ERA, and he’s allowed 27 hits in only 16.2 innings of work.

He’s ripe to get taken down here, and the M’s must capitalize on this opportunity to get back in the win column. They kissed the AL West away weeks ago, but they still have a chance of snagging the Wild Card. Losing this series at home to a team they’ve owned all season long is not the way this team wants to bow out. I expect a big-time effort to be put forth tonight, and then they’ll hopefully get healthier against the Rays in their four-game set this weekend.

Free Pick: Mariners +110

[Willie Bee]

Back Braves -102 at NY Mets

Game Time: 09/12/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

The Braves got a solid 13-5 'pick me up' win last night in New York, and they have their veteran ace John Smoltz on the mound tonight. Play Atlanta tonight at Shea vs. the Mets.

It's been an excellent season but New York Mets right-hander John Maine is beginning to get somewhat erratic.

Maine gave up nine hits, three walks and six earned runs in just 4.1 innings in losing his most recent start. He is now 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA his last three starts. He is also 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA vs. the Braves.

On the other hand, Smoltz was excellent in his most recent outing, allowing one run through seven complete innings. He earned his 13th victory while striking out 10. In fact, he had a no-hitter going through the first seven innings before giving up a leadoff single in the eighth. It marked the seventh straight start in which Smoltz has allowed three earned runs or less.

Smoltz has also fared well vs. the Mets over his career, going 17-14 with a 3.43 ERA. That includes a 2-1 mark with a 3.66 ERA this season. Consider a play on Atlanta.

Free Pick: Braves -102

[Willie Bee]

Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8½

Game Time: 09/12/2007 12:35 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Milwaukee's offense is a huge reason why the Brewers are atop the NL Central. Play the Over this afternoon in Pittsburgh when the Pirates host the Brew Crew.

Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates scoring over the total at PNC Park.

At a time when the Milwaukee Brewers are red hot, especially their hitters, right-handed starter Dave Bush has hit a considerable bump in the road. His last start was the worst of his major league career, as Bush lasted only one inning while giving up eight earned runs against the Reds on September 7. Bush is probably not in danger of losing his starting spot as the Milwaukee batters have been putting up such big numbers lately that even if he has a bad outing, their bats will likely bail him out. Despite his 5.25 ERA, Bush has a winning record of 11-10 and he is one of the reasons why the Brewers find themselves in first place this late in the season.

Pirates left-hander Tom Gorzelanny has had a much better season by the numbers than Bush has had, but his team is once again near the bottom of the standings in the National League. Gorzelanny is 14-7, but the Pirates are only 14-14 in the games in which he's started as his bullpen has let him down on more than one occasion this season. He could be in a for a rough time this afternoon as the Brewers have been feasting on southpaws this year, batting .290 against them.

Eight of the last 12 games between these two teams have gone a total of nine runs or more. Take the Over.

Free Pick: Brewers-Pirates Over 8½

[Willie Bee]

Los Angeles Dodgers (-140) vs. San Diego Padres

Game Time: 09/12/2007 10:10 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

It's beginning to be 'must-win' time for the Dodgers if they want to play on come October. Lay it on Los Angeles at home tonight with Derek Lowe facing the Padres.

The Dodgers face a virtual must-win scenario tonight as they host the San Diego Padres in Los Angeles.

LA falls 4½ behind in the National League Wild Card chase with a loss this evening, and that's going to be nearly impossible to make up down the stretch. But a win tonight narrows the gap to very workable 2½ games behind the Padres, and the Dodgers have Derek Lowe going in what really is a money game for LA.

Lowe has always been a clutch pitcher who is used to this type of contest, and I like his chances here. Padres right-hander Justin Germano is just 2-9 in his last 15 starts for San Diego, and I see him second best tonight. The Dodgers are the choice.

Free Pick: Dodgers -140

[Willie Bee]

Atlanta Braves -103 at NY Mets

Game Time: 09/12/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

With Atlanta's bats sparking last night in a 13-5 win, and ace John Smoltz toiling on the mound tonight, the Braves are the best play this evening when they meet the New York Mets.

The Braves were able to snag Game 2 of this series as their bats came alive once again, and that is going to have to continue if they plan on making a run at a playoff spot.

Atlanta is done in the National League East but only five games back in the Wild Card race and with four teams in front of them, it will be a tough hill to climb. The Braves have averaged 7.3 rpg over their last six games.

I will take John Smoltz at this price anytime, anywhere. Smoltz is coming off one of his best performances of the season as he limited the Nationals to one hit in seven innings with that hit ending a no-hit bid in the eighth inning. He has allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven straight starts while an amazing 23 of his 28 starts on the season have been quality outings. This includes 12 of 14 on the road. Eight of his nine starts against the Mets over the last two years have been quality performances as well.

It has been quite a year for John Maine as you really have no idea what you are going to get from him each and every time he takes the hill. He has just one quality start over his last eight contests and he has allowed six runs or more in three of those. Those were all losses, but the Mets are 5-1 in those other six games where he allowed three runs or fewer as he was able to keep them in the game enough to turn it over to the bullpen. One of those six-run outings came last month at home against the Braves.

The Braves are hitting .293 on the road against right-handed pitching while the Mets are hitting just .257 at home against righties. The Braves recent run of hitting the cover off the ball is helped by Maine and the Mets have not fared well of late after a big output going 2-5 in their last seven games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Look for Atlanta to chase Maine again while Smoltz continues his run of quality outings. Play the Atlanta Braves for two units.

Free Pick: Braves -103

[Willie Bee]

Webb, Diamondbacks (-154) versus San Francisco Giants

Game Time: 09/12/2007 10:10 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

Brandon Webb, the ace of the Arizona starting rotation, is on the mound tonight and that spells trouble for the Giants. Play the Diamondbacks against San Francisco.

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this one off a tough loss last night 2-1 to the Giants. The loss last night coupled with San Diego's win cut the Diamondbacks lead to 2½ games in the NL West and snapped a six-game winning streak. Arizona has struggled on the road against the Giants this season as they are only 2-6.

Tonight the Diamondbacks will attempt to right the ship when they send their ace, Brandon Webb, to the hill. Webb has been having a sensational season and has excelled on the road going 8-5 with a sparkling 2.76 ERA. In the one time that he has faced the Giants this season he pitched seven strong innings giving up no runs in a 1-0 win. The Giants have had trouble againts righties this season going 44-55.

The Giants, long gone in the playoff picture, look to spoil Arizona's hopes even further with a Game 2 win tonight. Last night's win was only their fourth in their last 10 ballgames and even this three game series at one game apiece.

The Giants will counter with their own right-handed starter in Jonathan Sanchez who will be making only his third start of the season and has yet to win posting an 0-1 mark with a 4.38 ERA. The last time Sanchez faced Arizona, he gave up four runs in a 6-3 loss. It will be tough going for Sanchez as the Diamondbacks have had good success versus right-handers posting a seaon mark of 59-47.

Supporting Angles: Arizona is 33-12 (+23.0 Units) against the moneyline after batting .240 or worse over a 20-game span this season. The D-Backs are 38-19 (+20.4 Units) against the moneyline with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over the same span. San Francisco is 6-15 (-11.4 Units) against the moneyline vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse this season.

Yesterday I recommended the Diamondbacks to win and lost a tough one. Today they have their ace on the hill and need the victory. No spoiler today, I'm taking Arizona.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks -154