Thursday's Front Page Picks (Sep 6)

[Willie Bee]

Fly with Byrd, Indians +140 at Angels

Game Time: 09/06/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

The Halos are tough, especially at home in Anaheim. But this is great value on Paul Byrd and a Cleveland Indians team that has won three in a row. Take the underdog Tribe tonight.

The Tribe opens a big series on the West Coast knowing they 17-8 behind Paul Byrd this season and 14-5 on Thursday, their best day of the week.

Byrd (14-5, 4.19) spent the 2005 season with the Angels and has limited two of their offensve weapons fairly well over his career, limiting Orlando Cabrera and Chone Figgins to a combined 4-for-31 (.129) effort. Both Cleveland and Byrd have picked up wins in his last four starts, and the Indians are 8-2 in his 10 outings since the All-Star break.

With Halos starter Kelvim Escobar having allowed five earned runs in two of his last three home starts, we'll stay with the hot-hitting Indians here this evening.

Free Pick: Indians +140

[Willie Bee]

Knuckle down on Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

Game Time: 09/06/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | sportspic.com

There is playing out the string and then there are the Baltimore Orioles. Look for the Boston Red Sox to batter the O's at home in Camden Yards this evening.

No team is looking forward to the end of the season like the Baltimore Orioles must be. They're just 2-13 in their last 15 games, posting a miserable 9.54 ERA. Baltimore has been outscored 137-49 in the 13 defeats, or an average loss of 10.54 to 3.77.

Starting pitcher Radhames Liz was knocked from last night's outing in just 1.2 innings. The mess of a bullpen allowed 13 earned runs and 19 base runners in 6.1 IP! Tonight, not only will Garrett Olson and his 6.61 home ERA face the strong hitting lineup of the Red Sox (even without Manny Ramirez), but the O's will have to deal with Tim Wakefield when they're on offense.

The knuckleballer owns a 3.96 ERA in 30 career starts against the Orioles. Sometimes there's value in a favorite of this price. This is one of those rare times. We'll lay the lumber with the BoSox on Thursday night.

Free Pick: Red Sox -160

[Willie Bee]

Orioles and Red Sox Over 10½

Game Time: 09/06/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Scott Rickenbach | playbook.com

With Tim Wakefield nursing a sore back and the Orioles starting a rookie in front of a struggling bullpen, the Over is the way to go in Baltimore when the Orioles host the Red Sox.

Both of these pitchers have some issues right now while both lineups have plenty of big sticks capable of making the hurlers pay for mistake pitches.

Tim Wakefield has been bothered by a sore back. The 41-year old missed his last start in Boston's rotation, when Clay Buchholz threw a no-hitter, but now comes back for tonight's affair at Camden Yards. The problem for Wakefield here is more than just some concern about his sore back. The knuckleballer will be facing a lineup that has a number of hitters in it who have enjoyed success against his fluttering offerings.

Garrett Olson is not likely to enjoy much success at all tonight. He has allowed at least four earned runs in four straight starts for Baltimore. Olson has completed six innings just once in his six outings this season. He has a WHIP of 2.20 as he's walked 26 and allowed 37 hits in just 28.2 innings of work in this, his rookie season.

More bad news for Olson tonight is that he's facing a Red Sox lineup that has already seen him twice. For the Red Sox to get a third look at the 23 year old after already pounding him for 15 hits plus drawing 11 walks in the first two outings doesn't bode well for Olson tonight. Those hits and walks noted above have been accumulated in just 11.2 innings against the BoSox.

Olson's average of less than five innings per start is bad news for Orioles fans. That's because the O's bullpen is one of the worst in the league. Baltimore relievers also continue to get frequently overworked due to games like last night's 17-2 loss versus Tampa Bay. Amazingly, the Orioles have now allowed 7 runs or more in 11 of their last 15 games.

As a result, with Wakefield not at 100% for Boston, we are fully expecting plenty of offensive success for both clubs. Also, keep in mind that Boston's bullpen has displayed some shakiness in recent weeks and may be called upon early here if Wakefield struggles or tweaks his back early on. Play Over the total in Baltimore as a regular selection.

Free Pick: Red Sox-Orioles Over 10½

[Willie Bee]

Indians +140 to extend division lead vs. Angels & Escobar

Game Time: 09/06/2007 10:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Indians and Angels are both seven games up in the loss column in their respective divisions, yet they have gotten to that point in differing ways. Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, peaking at the perfect time. Conversely, the Angels are coasting after building a safe division lead, so take the Indians.

This is an interesting battle of division leaders, as the Cleveland Indians have suddenly opened up some breathing room on the Detroit Tigers and are looking to put them away, while the Los Angeles Angels could virtually coast the rest of the way.

Just that reasoning alone makes the Indians an attractive underdog here, and we are not even that concerned about the travel factor, as the Tribe’s game in Minnesota yesterday was an early afternoon game, meaning they got to the West Coast at a reasonable hour.

Cleveland has seized control of the American League Central by going a sizzling 16-5 in their last 21 games, including 11 wins in their last 12 contests. This team is doing it offensively, hitting .294 while averaging 5.70 runs in the last 10 games, and is also getting great pitching from both the starters and relievers, posting a team ERA of 3.42 during this same span.

Tonight’s starter Paul Byrd has been a major contributor, as he is 14-5 and is coming off of back-to-back sparkling efforts, allowing a total of three runs and just 10 hits in 15 innings over those starts. Byrd has also made the normally potent Angels lineup looks silly in recent years, reeling off Quality Starts in each of his last four appearances against them. This includes a hard-luck loss earlier this year where he allowed only two runs in seven innings, only to lose by a 3-2 count.

In actuality, the Angels have the exact same lead in the loss column over the second place Seattle Mariners (seven games) that the Indians do over Detroit. The difference is that Cleveland is peaking right now, while the Angels opened up a big lead earlier on and has been on cruise control since sweeping Seattle last week. In fact, the Halos are just 2-3 in their last five games despite facing some suspect opposition in Texas and Oakland, all here at home!

Kelvim Escobar’s performance has mirrored that of the team, as he has great year-to-date numbers at 15-7 with a fantastic 2.99 ERA, but has seemed rather disinterested lately. Escobar has just one good start in his last three efforts, posting an uncharacteristic 5.94 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over this stretch.

This is simply a case of getting a very good team that has more motivation at an excellent price, so the Indians are a rather easy call here.

Free Pick: Indians +140

[Willie Bee]

Wakefield, Red Sox -161 at Orioles

Game Time: 09/06/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Tim Wakefield, Boston's starter tonight, hasn't allowed a run and has only surrendered nine hits in his last 22 innings. Ride the Red Sox to the pay window in Baltimore against the O's.

Our Thursday night MLB selection is on the Boston Red Sox with Timmy Wakefield over Baltimore and Garrett Olson.

Wakefield is in terrific form, as he's 3-0 over his last three starts with a 0.00 ERA. In these games, he's struck out 17 batters in 22 innings, and walked just six (always an important statistic for a knuckleballer). His mound opponent will be lefty Garrett Olson, who is 1-3 on the year with a poor 7.22 ERA, including a dismal 10.38 over his last three starts. He's also 0-2 in his career vs. the Bosox with a 6.17 ERA.

Wakefield has faced the Birds once this season and pitched well, going seven innings and surrendering just three runs and six hits. Baltimore has won just two of its previous 15 games, and gave up double digits again last night at Tampa Bay. Take Boston.

Free Pick: Red Sox -161

[Willie Bee]

White Sox and Tigers Over 9½

Game Time: 09/06/2007 01:05 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

Considering Chad Durbin is hurling for Detroit and Mark Buehrle is on the bump for Chicago, the total is too low. Back the Over in Motown when the Tigers host the White Sox.

This posted total is low for me today, so I'm taking the Over 9½ with two pitchers owning high ERA's.

Detroit's Chad Durbin (6-6, 4.89) has an ERA of 7.91 over his last three starts and an ERA of 6.27 when he has pitched in a day game this season. Mark Buehrle (9-9, 3.47) struggled in August with an ERA of 5.06 over six starts, and the White Sox lefty is 1-1 with an ERA of 6.28 against Detroit this season.

The O/U is 21-14 for Detroit when facing a left-hander this season and 21-12 for Detroit at home when the posted total is 9 to 9½.Grab the Over and have a great Thursday.

Free Pick: White Sox-Tigers Over 9½