Tuesday's Front Page Plays (Sep 4)

[Willie Bee]

Blue Jays and Red Sox Under 9

Game Time: 09/04/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

After a slugfest last night that went 13-10 in Boston's favor, look for tonight's game to provide far less offense with Roy Halladay and Josh Beckett on the mound. Play the Under at Fenway.

Boston's Josh Beckett has seen the Under go 2-0 the last two times he faced the Blue Jays at Fenway, most recently suffering a 2-1 loss here in July. Beckett's last start -- a 4-3 loss vs. the Yankees -- also stayed below the number, bringing the Under to 9-5 his last 14 games.

Meanwhile, Toronto's Roy Halladay has seen the Under go 3-1 his last four starts and 6-3 his last nine. The Under is also 3-1 his last four road starts with those four games averaging less than five combined runs each.

Despite yesterday's offensive explosion, the Under also remains a profitable 11-8-1 the last 20 games in this series. Consider a play on the Under.

Free Pick: Blue Jays-Red Sox Under 9

[Willie Bee]

Play the Over in White Sox, Tigers tilt

Game Time: 09/04/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Neither Chicago's Jon Garland nor Detroit's Jeremy Bonderman has been stellar on the mound lately. Play the Over tonight at Comerica Park in Motown when the Tigers host the White Sox.

Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers scoring over the total in Motown at Comerica Park.

The White Sox probably wish they could play their entire season against the Tigers. Sure, two years ago when Chicago won it all you would have figured that they would dominate their then-average division rivals. But in 2006, when the Tigers became a champion and Chicago started its fall from grace, the White Sox went 12-7 against Detroit and this year, with Chicago much worse than it was in 2006, it's been more of the same against the Tigers, going 8-4 so far as the teams now begin a three game series at Detroit.

Both right-handed starters tonight, Detroit's Jeremy Bonderman and Chicago's Jon Garland, have been huge disappointments for their respective teams, especially lately. If you combine their last three starts, these two have gone 1-4 with an ERA of 6.35. And although Garland has a quality start against the Detroit Tigers this season, that was back in April when Garland was actually pitching very well. The wheels have come off for him since the break as he has gone 2-4 with a 6.91 ERA since the mid-summer classic after going 6-6 with a 3.92 ERA before. This pretty much mirrors Bonderman's season as he went 9-1 with a 3.48 ERA before the break, but has only managed 2-6 and 6.86 since. Take the Over.

Free Pick: White Sox-Tigers Over 9½

[Willie Bee]

White Sox +175 to stun Detroit Tigers

Game Time: 09/04/2007 07:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Chicago White Sox may be responsible all by themselves for keeping the Detroit Tigers out of the playoffs, and Jon Garland has pitched great in Detroit in recent years, so look for another Chicago upset.

If the Detroit Tigers do not make the playoffs this season, they could place the blame squarely on their inability to beat the Chicago White Sox.

The White Sox have one of the worst records in baseball at 58-79, yet they are 8-4 in 12 encounters with the defending American League Champions. Taken back even further, the Sox are an unbelievable 19-7 in the last 26 head-to-head meetings here in Detroit, including 5-1 this season! Their starter Jon Garland has been erratic this year, but he has pitched great at Comerica Park, allowing a grand total of three earned runs in his last three starts in this stadium, covering 24 innings.

Jeremy Bonderman must be considered a disappointment for the Tigers at 11-7, especially with his 4.72 ERA. He has been even worse than that lately, posting a generous 5.30 ERA in his last three outings. Perhaps most importantly, he has been miserable in two appearances vs. the White Sox this season, allowing a total of 11 earned runs in 14 innings.

Considering the past performances of these pitchers vs. their respective opponents here, as well as Chicago’s success vs. Detroit in general, the White Sox offer great value at this bloated price.

Free Pick: White Sox +175

[Willie Bee]

LA Dodgers -130 at Chicago Cubs

Game Time: 09/04/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Coming off an 11-3 thrashing of the Cubs yesterday at Wrigley, look for the Dodgers to bring more of the same tonight with Brad Penny on the mound. Lay it on LA at Chicago.

The Dodgers look to extend their win streak to three in a row behind Brad Penny tonight knowing he is 9-2 in his road team starts this season with a 2.74 ERA.

Penny is 14-4 on the season with an outstanding 2.88 ERA. The Dodgers are 4-1 in his most recent five outings, and he has allowed just three earned runs in his last 13 innings pitched away from home. He is averaging 6.17 strikeouts per nine innings in his 28 starts for Los Angeles in 2007.

On the flip side, newly acquired Steve Trachsel is in horrid strikeout to walk form with 18 walks and only eight strikeouts in his last six starts. Back the better arm here tonight.

Free Pick: Dodgers -130

[Willie Bee]

NY Mets -140 at Cincinnati Reds

Game Time: 09/04/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | sportspic.com

The Mets are heating up with four straight wins while the Reds have gone the other direction with four straight losses. That makes the -140 a nice price tonight when they meet in Cincinnati.

I'm playing the Mets with Oliver Perez facing Matt Belisle of the Reds. This is a nice price for teams that are this far apart.

The Mets won on Monday, making it four straight wins while the Reds have found a way to drop four in a row. Perez owns strong numbers at Great American in Cincinnati, and even better numbers on the road overall. Perez is 6-4 in 10 starts away from Shea with a 3.29 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

He should receive plenty of support from his mates tonight. The Mets are excellent in road night games against righties scoring an average of over 5.5 runs per game. That's bad news for Matt Belisle. The Cincy righty is 2-7 in 13 home starts this season, allowing 51 earned runs in 73.1 IP for a 6.26 home ERA to go along with a .313 BAA.

Reds opponents have scored 54 runs in Belisle's last six home starts, or 9.00 RPG. We'll jump on the Mets as they look to win their fifth in a row.

Free Pick: Mets -140

[Willie Bee]

Marlins +109 at Washington Nationals

Game Time: 09/04/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

This has not been a good season for Marlins lefty Dontrelle Willis. Still, he's pitched better on the road and this is solid value on the Fish. Back Florida tonight at the Nationals.

We are getting very good value here Tuesday with Florida since Dontrelle Willis (8-14 ERA 5.17) has pitched better on the road than at home this season.

Florida is 7-4 this season when Willis has started against an NL East team. Willis is 10-5 lifetime against the Nationals with an ERA of 3.48. I look for the D-Train to bounce back with a strong start Tuesday night after a couple of starts where he has struggled.

The Nationals are just 1-4 when Shawn Hill (3-3 ERA 2.87) has started for them at home this season and Florida simply has the overall better lineup Tuesday night.

Free Pick: Marlins +109

[Willie Bee]

Indians (-130) at Minnesota Twins

Game Time: 09/04/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Will Cover | playbook.com

The Indians have won nine of their last 10 to open up a nice 6-agme lead in the AL Central. And Cleveland goes for more tonight in Minnesota when they take on the Twins.

We used the Tribe as our play yesterday and we come right back with them tonight as they have owned the Twins this season.

The Cleveland Indians are 5-0 in their last five against the Twinkies and are on a roll of late, winning nine of their last 10, 14 of their last 18, and opening up a big six-game lead in the AL Central over the Tigers. The Indians are a solid 35-31 on the road and if left-handed pitcher Aaron Laffey needs help, Cleveland's Tribe's bullpen with Rafael Betancourt and Joe Borowski can close this one out.

Minnesota has dropped two in a row...make it three after this contest!

Free Pick: Indians -130

[Willie Bee]

Washington Nationals (-125) versus Florida Marlins

Game Time: 09/04/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

Manny Acta has the Nationals on a three-game winning streak and they catch a struggling Dontrelle Willis at home tonight. Win with Washington over Florida.

It's been a very long season for Marlins lefty Dontrelle Willis. Basically, the D-Train has never gotten out of the yard and I don't see that suddenly changing with less than one month remaining.

Shawn Hill has been mostly outstanding for the unsung Nationals. He's the better pitcher here, the Nats seem to be the harder working team, and they're at home laying a pretty cheap price. Good enough to make the call on the Washington side.

Free Pick: Nationals -125

[Willie Bee]

Take Tampa Bay (-150) vs Baltimore

Game Time: 09/04/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Orioles are on a 1-9 run while the Devil Rays have won eight of their last 10, including three straight in Baltimore last week. Take the home team at The Trop in Tampa tonight.

Baltimore is 3-14 in their last 17 games. In their last nine as a dog the Orioles are 1-8. In their last seven games vs. a left-handed starter, they are 0-7. Baltimore has lost Jeremy Guthrie's last six starts.

Tampa is 6-1 in their last seven games. The Devil Rays have won five of their last six home games. In Scott Kazmir's last six home starts, Tampa Bay is 5-1. The D-Rays are 5-2 in his last seven starts overall.

Two teams headed in different directions right now and in this one I'll take the hotter home team. Play on the Devil Rays.

Free Pick: Devil Rays -150