Wednesday's Front Page Plays (Aug 29)

[Willie Bee]

Maddux, San Diego Padres -147 vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Game Time: 08/29/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

The last time Greg Maddux walked a batter was over a month ago, and San Diego is 4-0 in his last four home starts. Play the Padres tonight vs. the Diamondbacks.

The Padres turn to Greg Maddux in Game 3 of this four-game series with the Diamondbacks knowing he is in terrific strikeout-to-walk form with zero walks and 16 strikeouts in his last five starts.

He's also 9-4 at home with a 3.28 ERA this season. In his last three starts, Maddux has allowed just four earned runs over 18.2 innings (1.92). The last time the future Hall of Famer walked a batter was over a month ago on July 28 against Houston. San Diego is 4-1 in Maddux's last five starts and a perfect 4-0 in his last four home assignments.

With that we'll stay at home with Maddux and the Padres this evening.

Free Pick: Padres -147

[Willie Bee]

Atlanta Braves -102 at Marlins

Game Time: 08/29/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

In danger of dropping another series and falling further out of the NL postseason hunt, look for an inspired effort tonight from the Atlanta Braves on the road against the Florida Marlins.

Our Wednesday night MLB selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Florida Marlins. In a backwards kind of way, Atlanta Falcons QB Michael Vick might be the best thing that ever happened to the Braves. Normally around this time, there would be plenty of headlines surrounding the Braves and their fall from dominance in the NL East to -- what is right now anyway -- third place and out of the playoffs.

But even with the recent release by the Braves of closer Bob Wickman, you'd be hard-pressed to find any mention of them on the front pages these days because of the unfortunate situation surrounding the Falcons and Vick. Will this propel Atlanta past the Mets and Phillies? Probably not. But a little distraction from their problems right now surely can't hurt.

Without doubt, they made the deadline trade of the year, picking up 1B Mark Teixeira from the Rangers. Teixeira has been on fire since joining a playoff contender and if the Braves don't make it, there certainly will be no blame resting on his shoulders.

Tonight they will face the lowly Marlins, who are so bad they are actually in jeopardy of slipping below the Nats and into last place in the division. Dontrelle Willis has been one of their biggest dissapointments so far and he has been significantly worse in his starts at home (3-8, 5.32 ERA) than on the road (5-5, 4.56 ERA).

The Braves are 9-4 in their last 13 games vs. the NL East and the Marlins are 9-24 in their last 33 games overall. Take the Braves.

Free Pick: Braves -102

[Willie Bee]

Santana, Twins -106 at Indians

Game Time: 08/29/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

Despite his strong numbers on the season, the Indians have dropped six of CC Sabathia's last seven starts. Take Johan Santana and the Minnesota Twins tonight in Cleveland.

We are getting great value here Wednesday night with Johan Santana (14-9, 2.97 ERA) on the mound for the Twins who have won five of their last seven games.

Santana has an ERA of just 2.79 on the road this season and he has an ERA of just 3.07 against the Indians. The Twins are hitting .298 as a team while averaging 6.3 rpg over their last seven games while C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.38) has allowed 115 hits over 115.1 innings this season at home in Cleveland.

Free Pick: Twins -106

[Willie Bee]

Houston Astros -156 vs Cardinals

Game Time: 08/29/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | sportspic.com

This has been a forgettable season for the Astros, no doubt, but they've got their ace Roy Oswalt on the mound against Kip Wells who has been awful for St. Louis. Back Houston.

I'm laying the price with the Astros on Wednesday. We have a serious pitching mismatch in this one and the line, although in the 1.50s at the time of this writing, is too low.

Kip Wells showed signs of coming around for St. Louis, but that short-lived run ended with a thud on August 24. Wells owns a 6.17 road ERA this season and a 5.34 ERA in 16 career starts against the Astros. The Cards are 2-10 in his last 12 road starts, including a thumping at Minute Maid in a start on June 2.

Roy Oswalt makes his first start in 11 days. He's been spectacular at home this season and owns solid marks against the Redbirds. He'll face a Cardinals team that until recently was horrible in road night games against righties. With Oswalt on the hill, I believe the Cards will revert to previous form. I'm laying the price with Houston on Wednesday.

Free Pick: Astros -157

[Willie Bee]

Braves and Marlins Over 10½

Game Time: 08/29/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

It has been a long, tough season for Marlins left-hander Dontrelle Willis who sports a 5.32 home ERA. Bet the Over tonight when Florida hosts Mark Teixeira and the Atlanta Braves.

Florida southpaw Dontrelle Willis has endured a very disappointing season and his ERA at home is 5.32.

The Braves have lost seven of their last 10 games but they are scoring nearly seven runs per game while hitting .322 against left-handed pitching. Florida is stuck in a losing stretch but the offense has scored more runs than all but five teams in the NL.

Atlanta's Buddy Carlyle struggled in his past two starts and this number is deflated by the illusion of two decent pitchers on the mound.

Free Pick: Braves-Marlins Over 10½

[Willie Bee]

Braves -104 at Florida Marlins

Game Time: 08/29/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Rocky Atkinson | rocketmansports.com

With the Marlins on the losing side 12 of their last 14, and with their southpaw Dontrelle Willis struggling at home this year, back the Atlanta Braves this evening on the moneyline.

Atlanta is 54-31 since 1997 on the road when the total is 10 to 10½. The Braves are scoring 5.4 runs per game on the road this season and need this win to avoid dropping their fourth straight series.

Florida is 21-37 last three years at home when the moneyline is -100 to -125. Florida has lost 12 of their last 14 games overall. Dontrelle Willis is only 3-8 at home this year. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta tonight!

Free Pick: Braves -104

[Willie Bee]

KC Royals +106 vs Detroit Tigers

Game Time: 08/29/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

There's value to be found in this home dog tonight in Kansas City. Ride the Royals, with Zack Greinke on the mound, to a win versus rookie Andrew Miller and the Detroit Tigers.

Here's where things get dicey for the Detroit Tigers. The back end of their rotation is just not reliable right now. Andrew Miller has been terrible in his last four outings: 18 innings, 29 hits, 14 BB and 19 runs, all earned. That's more than ugly.

Kansas City's Zack Greinke probably goes no more than five here as he's on a short pitch count. But Greinke has been razor sharp lately. There's an edge on the mound for the Royals, so I'll back them here as home dogs. The Royals are the choice.

Free Pick: Royals +106

[Willie Bee]

Sabathia, Indians -103 vs. Twins

Game Time: 08/29/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

This game features a super mound matchup as C.C. Sabathia goes for the Indians at home versus the Twins' Johan Santana. Cash on Cleveland this evening versus Minnesota.

Great pitching matchup tonight in Cleveland between the Twins' Johan Santana and Indians ace C.C. Sabathia, with both starters having won 14 games so far this season.

The Twins are 2-6 in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning record. In their last 19 games as a road dog they are 5-14. In Minnesota's last 12 games vs. teams with a winning record they are 3-9.

The Indians have won six of their last seven games. Sabathia is 2-1 with a 1.66 ERA vs. the Twins this season. Cleveland is 10-4 in their last 14 meetings with the Twins. Minnesota is 2-6 in their last eight visits to Cleveland. Play on the Indians.

Free Pick: Indians -103

[joseuribe]

WTF? You picked the Twins and the Indians.Which one is it?

[Willie Bee]

The eyes are a wonderful tool, especially when it comes to reading. Note that those two picks were made by two entirely different cappers.

Which way are you playing it, by the way?

And welcome to SBR

[joseuribe]

I apologize for the mistake.I have to get used to the format here.I am not playing that game,but I would take Johan to avoid the sweep.

[BatemanPatrickl]

WTF? You picked the Twins and the Indians.Which one is it?

These are not Willie's picks