Tuesday's Front Page Plays (Aug 21)

[Willie Bee]

Yankees, LA Angels Under 9½ (-120)

Game Time: 08/21/2007 10:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Runs should be hard to come by in Anaheim tonight. Escobar has been great at home this year, and though Mussina has seen better days, he has pitched well vs. the Angels.

We are looking for a good old fashioned pitchers’ duel when Mike Mussina and the New York Yankees squares off with Kelvim Escobar and the Los Angeles Angels this evening.

Sure Mussina is probably having the worst season of his career, but he has pitched well against the Angels. The Moose has seven Quality Starts in his last nine outings vs. the Halos, and that does include a nice start this season where he allowed just two runs and five hits in 6.1 innings before the bullpen blew the lead for him. Also, the Under is 7-1 in his last eight starts vs. Los Angeles/Anaheim, and Mussina has been a much better pitcher on the road this season, where he has a very respectable 3.86 ERA.

As for his opponent, you will find very few pitchers that are as successful at home as Escobar. He is 7-3 he in Disney World with an excellent 2.07 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 12 home starts, with the Under going 8-4 in those games. He has already tossed one gem vs. the Yankees this season, allowing only one run and six hits with eight strikeouts in seven innings of a 3-1 win in the Bronx

Yes, the Bombers were not nearly as hot offensively then as they are now, so we doubt they will be held to just one run here again. Still, we do feel that these pitchers will contain each offense enough to keep this game in single-digits.

Free Pick: Yankees, Angels Under 9½ (-120)

[Willie Bee]

Houston Astros -153 vs Nationals

Game Time: 08/21/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Houston's Wandy Rodriguez has been lights out at home this year, and especially the past two months. Back the Astros at Minute Maid Park this evening when they host the Nationals.

The Astros send steady Wandy Rodriguez to the hill against the Nationals tonight knowing he is 4-0 in his MLB career team starts against Washington.

Rodriguez has also cashed nine of his 12 team starts at home this season, where he owns a sparkling 1.65 ERA. In his five starts at home in Houston since the end of June, Rodriguez is 3-0 and the Astros are 4-1. His ERA in those five starts covering 38 innings is a microscopic 0.71 with 30 strikeouts, 10 walks and no home runs in what is generally regarded as a hitter's park.

With Washington's Joel Hanrahan in miserable current form we'll stay at home with Houston and Rodriguez this evening.

Free Pick: Astros -153

[Willie Bee]

KC Royals, Chicago White Sox Under 9

Game Time: 08/21/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Both hurlers in this one, Leo Nuñez for the visiting Royals and Javier Vazquez of the White Sox, have been strong against their opposition. Back the Under in the KC, Chicago match.

Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Under in the Kansas City Royals, White Sox game in Chicago.

Right-hander Leo Nuñez will get the start for KC, and he's been brilliant this season. In five appearances he has a 1.96 ERA and has given up just 17 hits in 23 innings. Nuñez will be opposed by veteran Javier Vazquez who's been solid for the Chisox this season. His ERA is a respectable 3.74 and he's won 10 games against just six losses for the light-hitting White Sox. Vazquez also excels vs. Kansas City, as he has a 2.95 career ERA vs. the Royals. And Nuñez' ERA vs. Chicago is a super 1.50.

The Royals have gone under the total in 10 of their last 12 games, and we'll look for another low-scoring game on Tuesday night.

Free Pick: Royals-White Sox Under 9

[Willie Bee]

Play Pirates +126 at Colorado Rockies

Game Time: 08/21/2007 09:05 PM -
By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

The offense has come alive for Pittsburgh lately with an average of more than seven runs per game in their last 10. Play the Pirates tonight on the road against the Colorado Rockies.

The Pirates are averaging over seven runs scored per game in the last 10 games and Pittsburgh may be putting together a late season surge despite another disappointing season.

Pittsburgh starter Tony Armas has salvaged his season after being relegated to relief duty following an awful start to the year. Pittsburgh is 3-0 in his three starts since returning to the rotation and he is capable of another strong performance today.

The Rockies rotation is a bit thin at present and recently acquired Elmer Dessens will make a follow-up start to an unsuccessful outing last week in San Diego. Just as the Rockies started to appear as legitimate playoff contenders, their offense has gone cold. Colorado is hitting just .263 in the last 10 games compared with a .302 average from the Pirates. Despite underdog status the Pirates can win big on Tuesday.

Free Pick: Pirates +126

[Willie Bee]

Mariners, Twins Under 8½ in Minnesota

Game Time: 08/21/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Brad Diamond | playbook.com

Tonight's contest in the Metrodome between the Mariners and Twins should be a low-scoring affair. Play the Under this evening when the Twins entertain the Mariners.

As the season goes deeper into its final phases and the starting staffs start to wilt while the pens suffer from over draft, there's usually a tendency to fade the Over.

However, here we find the Twins looking to respond off a 9-4 beating by the hard-charging Mariners. Seattle starts lefty Jarrod Washburn against right-hander Scott Baker of Minnesota. Inn all it should be a dandy battle up in the Twin Cities. Since Seattle is seven of nine under with Washburn on the road and Minnesota has gone under in six of eight with Baker at home, I suggest staying low this evening at the 8½ price.

Free Pick: Mariners-Twins Under 8½

[Willie Bee]

Diamondbacks (-115) versus Brewers

Game Time: 08/21/2007 09:40 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

An up-&-down season has mostly been up for Livan Hernandez recently when he pitches at home. Take the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at home versus the Milwaukee Brewers.

Heading into last night's the game the Brewers had lost seven of their last nine road games. In their last 33 games as a dog they are 9-24.

In their last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter, Milwaukee is 7-20. The Brewers are 5-11 in Dave Bush's last 16 road starts. In his last eight road starts as a dog, the Brewers are 2-8.

Arizona is 21-6 in their last 27 games. In their last 28 games as a home favorite they are a money-making 20-8. In their last 57 games as a favorite they are 40-17. The Diamondbacks are 4-1 in Livan Hernandez's last five home starts. In his last seven as a favorite Arizona is 5-2. Play on the Diamondbacks.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks -115

[Willie Bee]

Brewers +105 at Arizona Diamondbacks

Game Time: 08/21/2007 09:40 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Brewers began this critical trip on the right foot with a dominating 9-0 win last night. With Bush coming off a good outing and Hernandez struggling, play Milwaukee.

Maybe leaving home was the best thing that could have happened to the Milwaukee Brewers, as they opened this crucial road trip with an emphatic 9-0 pummeling of the Arizona Diamondbacks here last night.

That win makes the Brewers 4-1 in the season series with the D-Backs this season, and there starter tonight, David Bush, posted a Quality Start in his only outing vs. Arizona this season. Bush has been erratic, but he is coming off of a nice start where he limited the red-hot St. Louis Cardinals to just three runs in seven innings, with all the runs coming on two Yadier Molina home runs. Bush also now has two Quality Starts in three career outings against the Snakes.

Arizona starter Livan Hernandez is struggling as of late, with only one Quality Start in his last four appearances, with that lone good effort coming vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers at a time when LA was not hitting a lick. Hernandez did not pitch well in his only start against the Brewers this year either, surrendering five earned runs on eight hits and an unacceptable five walks in 5.1 innings of a 10-1 Milwaukee shellacking.

Hernandez could very well be wearing down, as he has tossed over 100 pitches in nine of his last 10 starts while throwing 99 pitches in the other one, and he is averaging a whopping 120 pitches per game over his last four starts. Hernandez is now getting up there in years, so this heavy workload may be contributing to his recent ineffectiveness.

Free Pick: Brewers +105

[Willie Bee]

NY Mets -111 versus SD Padres

Game Time: 08/21/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

With two solid pitchers on the mound, Chris Young for the visiting Padres and John Maine for the Mets, this one comes down to offense. Make your play on New York at Shea.

There's no denying that Chris Young has had an awesome year. However, while he has been dominant at home in San Diego, Young has only been solid on the road.

In fact, he lost his last road start (at St. Louis) and has a 3.30 ERA on the road for the season. Additionally, he is only two starts removed from coming off the DL (due to having a strained left oblique) and he's struggled vs. the Mets over his career. In two career starts vs. the Mets, Young is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA.

New York's John Maine had some tough starts since the break but he won his last time out. He's now 13-7 with a respectable 3.59 ERA on the season. The Mets, who have hit home runs in 11-straight games, have defeated the Padres six straight times.

The Mets' get 9.5 hits per game while scoring 4.8 runs. The Padres get 8.4 hits while scoring 4.4 runs. The Padres also strike out a lot more (7.8 times per game) often than the Mets, who go down swinging 6.2 times per game. Consider a play on the better hitting home team.

Free Pick: Mets -111