Wednesday's Front Page Picks (Aug 15)

Willie Bee · 08-15-07, 09:05 AM

NY Mets -145 at Pittsburgh Pirates

Game Time: 08/15/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

Even without their best effort last night, the Mets still topped the Pirates. New York's John Maine will get his game back together this evening and lead New York to another win in Pittsburgh.

It certainly wasn't easy for the Mets last night in their 5-4 win over the Pirates, but good teams often prevail when asked to at this point in the season.

The Buccos just don't have the talent on their roster to compete with the likes of the upper echelon teams in the league, and they'll have their hands full once again tonight against Jon Maine and Company. If indeed the Buccos were able to come up with a couple of clutch hits early on when they had Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez on the ropes yesterday, I might have grabbed them at plus money today against Mr. Maine who has struggled in his last couple of starts.

That being said, the Mets didn't have their best stuff last night and they were still able to manage the road victory. They've proven to be a better road team over the course of this season, and I'm expecting a breakout performance from Maine and the Mets sticks. Look for New York's offense to get healthy tonight against Buccos starter Matt Morris. They saw him way back in May of this season and Morris actually pitched a decent game. However, that was when he was going good and pitching for a different team.

Since then, he's been traded, and in two games since coming to the Pirates, he's allowed 10 runs and 16 hits and has a pair of no-decisions. He remains 0-3 in his last 10 starts and last recorded a victory on June 11. That's a heck of a long time to go without a victory in this league, and it looks to me like he's simply run out of gas.

Look for the Mets to get healthy here and put up a crooked final tally when this one is all said and done. New York owns the advantage in every matchup I take into account when breaking down the card on a daily basis. If this were a month ago, the Mets would be in the 160-175 range here. Run with the value!

Free Pick: Mets -145

Willie Bee · 08-15-07, 09:06 AM

San Diego Padres (-190) vs Rockies

Game Time: 08/15/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

After shaking off the rust in his first start back from the DL, expect San Diego's Chris Young to be much sharper tonight. Play the Padres at home in Petco vs the Colorado Rockies.

Our Wednesday night MLB selection is on the San Diego Padres over Colorado in this critical game between National League West Division rivals.

Chris Young will get the start for San Diego, and he's been lights-out at Petco Park, one of the best park for pitchers in the majors. Young's ERA is 2.02 on the season, but at Petco, he has a 0.73 ERA with a 4-1 record in nine games.

Young came off the disabled list (he had a strained oblique) to make his first start in 16 days last Thursday, and he was a bit rusty, giving up four earned runs, three hits and five walks in six innings. But prior to that outing, Young was 5-0 in 11 starts with a 1.02 ERA. He's 4-0 lifetime vs. the Rockies with a 2.52 ERA, and this season, he's given up just one earned run in nine innings vs. Colorado.

Young will face rookie RHP Ubaldo Jimenez who is 1-2 with a 5.85 ERA in his career. Over his last three starts, Jimenez' ERA is a horrid 9.24.

Free Pick: Padres -190

Willie Bee · 08-15-07, 09:07 AM

NY Yankees, Baltimore Orioles Over 9

Game Time: 08/15/2007 01:05 PM -
By: Gale Scheelar | touthouse.com

The Yankees were whitewashed last night at home by the Orioles in a 12-0 rout. Look for the New York bats to atone for that beating tonight while the Baltimore sticks also score.

After the humiliation the Yankees faced last night at home you know they will come out tonight with guns blazing. The Orioles also have a few weapons of their own as they proved yesterday.

New York faced Baltimore right-hander Daniel Cabrera last night who has had moderate success against the Yankees. This afternoon they face the Orioles' ace, southpaw Erik Bedard, whose career ERA versus New York is almost a run higher than Cabrera's 3.94 before last nights 6+ frames of shutout ball.

On the mound for the Yankees will be Phil Hughes who sports a 10.00 ERA in two starts at The Stadium this season as opposed to a tiny 0.73 mark in two starts away. Take the Baltimore-New York total to go over.

Free Pick: Orioles-Yankees Over 9 (-110)

Willie Bee · 08-15-07, 09:15 AM

KC Royals (-120) at Texas Rangers

Game Time: 08/15/2007 08:35 PM -
By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

One pitch cost the Royals a win last night. But it will be Gil Meche's approximate 100 pitches leading them to victory tonight when they face Vincente Padilla and the Rangers in Texas.

Gil Meche has been reliable for the Royals, especially on the road with a 3.52 ERA. Meche is undervalued here as a loser of four consecutive starts but he pitched well enough to win in three of those outings.

Texas starter Vincente Padilla returns after an extended DL stint but the Rangers are 4-11 this season when he starts. The Royals swept the first series with Texas this season and Kansas City is capable of coming up with another big win today.

Free Pick: Royals -120

Willie Bee · 08-15-07, 09:16 AM

Texas Rangers, KC Royals Over 10

Game Time: 08/15/2007 08:35 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Two struggling pitchers meet up tonight and that makes for a high scoring game. Play the Over when Vincente Padilla and the Texas Rangers host Gil Meche and the Kansas City Royals.

The Over is 7-0 in the Royals' last seven games as a favorite. In Kansas City's last seven games vs. a team with a losing record, the Over is 4-2-1.

The Over is 5-1 in Gil Meche's last six road starts. Over his last three starts, Meche's ERA is 5.62. Texas' Vincente Padilla comes off the DL tonight. His ERA during his rehab assignment was over 8.00. On the year he has an ERA of 6.69 and the Over is a profitable 12-2. The Over is 20-7-1 in his last 28 starts made on grass.

Two struggling pitchers meet up tonight and that makes for a high scoring game. Play the Over.

Free Pick: Royals-Rangers Over 10 (-110)

Willie Bee · 08-15-07, 09:17 AM

Rockies (+180) at San Diego Padres

Game Time: 08/15/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

The Padres' offense made a rare appearance last night, but they'll go back into hiding today. Cash on the Colorado Rockies tonight when they face Chris Young at San Diego's Petco Park.

Alright, so the Padres did some good work offensively last night against the Rockies pitching staff. However, they got a chance to tee off on another lefty whom they've had success against at a more frequent rate all season long. Sure, it was very surprising how bad they made Jeff Francis look, but they've done it too solid left-handed pitchers all season long.

However tonight's starter, Ubaldo Jimenez, just so happens to be of the right-handed variety and watching the Padres flail aimlessly against RHP this season has been a spectacle all season long. Oddly, they can't touch righties. They sport a .239 batting average and a .385 slugging percentage against southpaws. If you take a gander at the splits, you'll notice a large discrepancy.

Now, I'm not saying Jimenez is the end-all, be-all, but he did perform well against the Padres in an earlier start this season when he went seven innings giving up four hits and three earned runs while K'ing five and issuing a pair of free passes. If he puts out another effort like that one here, the Rox have an excellent shot at winning this one.

Chris Young has been nothing short of fantastic this year (especially at home), but he certainly didn't look like himself in his first start off the DL since hurting himself against these same Rox at Coors Field. Take a flyer with the road team here who saw their ace get beaten into a bloody pulp last night. They'd love nothing more than to return the favor, and get themselves right back into the NL West talk after last night's massacre.

Free Pick: Rockies +180

Willie Bee · 08-15-07, 10:03 AM

Brewers (-142) versus Cardinals

Game Time: 08/15/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

Besides playing better at home, the powerful Brewers offense will get to face Cardinals right-hander Joel Pineiro tonight. Make your play Milwaukee in this one against St. Louis.

The surging St. Louis Cardinals look to win their fourth in a row and second in this series as they face off against Milwaukee in Game 2 of their three-game series. St. Louis has won six of their last eight to cut the Milwaukee lead to 4½ games. The Cardinals have had problems on the road however, going only 26-33 on the year.

The Cardinals have also not been a good proposition versus right-handed starters as they are only 36-40 on the year. Tonight they will be facing Milwaukee righty Yovani Gallardo who has been lazer-sharp when pitching at home going a perfect 3-0 with a stellar 1.73 ERA.

The Milwaukee Brewers come into this contest struggling as they have lost two in a row and are only 4-8 their last 12 overall. Their lead in the NL Central has shrunk to only 1½ games over the Cubs. The Brewers have loved home cooking this season as they are a profitable 39-21 on the season averaging a very respectable 5.0 runs per game.

The Brewers will be facing veteran Joel Pineiro who will be making only his second road start of the season. In his first road start Pineiro really struggled pitching only five innings and giving up four earned runs.

Supporting Angles: St. Louis is 4-12 (-10.6 Units) against the moneyline after two straight wins by four runs or more over the last three seasons. Piniero is 6-13 (-14.3 Units) against the moneyline when playing on Wednesday since 1997. Milwaukee is 14-2 (+12.5 Units) against the moneyline in home games after allowing 10 runs or more over the last three seasons.

Although Milwaukee has struggled recently they are still a formidable opponent at home. Tonight they will be facing a fairly ineffective pitcher which will be just what the doctor ordered. I'm taking Milwaukee in this one.

Free Pick: Brewers -142

onlooker · 08-15-07, 10:27 AM

I agree with Nelly on the Royals, but not playing it.

Though I'm going to have to disagree with Michael Alexander, as I am playing the Cardinals tonight.