1-2, -.45 Tuesday.
3* Blue Jays -128: Marcum's emerging as an elite starter, and he's not getting that type of respect with this line against a poor road team with a fifth starter, at best, on the hill. Marcum's second in the AL in WHIP, (1.09) behind only Santana, and he has 13 quality starts in his 17 starts this year, while Dustin Moseley has a 6.56 ERA in his 7 career starts. Considering the substantial starting pitching advantage in Toronto's favor, combined with the Jays' success at home and the Halos' struggles on the road, this line's a good 25 cents short.
1* Tigers +176: Admittedly, I don't know much about Jair Jurrjens. His numbers at AA are relatively impressive, (7-5, 3.20, 1.27) but in a matchup of two evenly-matched teams, this price is too generous to pass up. After being one of the most undervalued pitchers for a good part of the first half, Carmona is now the complete opposite. He's thrown twice as many pitches as he did a year ago, when he worked primarily out of the pen, and working against one of the two best offenses in the league, I don't the Tribe laying this much chalk is justified, even against a rookie pitcher making his first big league start.
1* Rockies +178: As good as Chris Young has been, given SD's porous offense, there's always value with the opposition at this price against the Pads, particularly a team as capable and effective offensively as Colorado. Jimenez is a highly regarded prospect who's more than capable of throwing a good game at Petco, and when 2 or 3 runs could easily be enough for the win, I'll take my chances at this generous price.
1* Orioles/Yankees UNDER 9 -110: Bedard's been nearly unhittable of late, going 6-0 with a 1.82 ERA in his last 7 starts. After a poor outing in his first start off the DL, Hughes, who has one of the better arms in baseball, was outstanding in his last start at Cleveland. In an afternoon game at Yankee Stadium where the shadows figure to make it difficult for the hitter's, runs should be difficult to come by.
1* D'Backs +113: Two pitchers headed in opposite directions. After a difficult start to the year, Doug Davis has 7 consecutive quality starts, of which Arizona has won 6 of those games. After pitching over his head much of the first half, Sergio Mitre has come back down to earth, posting a 7.48 ERA over his last 4 starts. I'll take the better team, the better bullpen and the more proven starter at plus money.
1* Brewers Team Total OVER 5 +125: Despite his strong outing against SD, Joel Pineiro's a huge liability as a starter. Pineiro has a 6.02 ERA in his last 57 starts, and I expect him to be exposed tomorrow by a Milwaukee lineup that performs significantly better at home.
3* Blue Jays -128: Marcum's emerging as an elite starter, and he's not getting that type of respect with this line against a poor road team with a fifth starter, at best, on the hill. Marcum's second in the AL in WHIP, (1.09) behind only Santana, and he has 13 quality starts in his 17 starts this year, while Dustin Moseley has a 6.56 ERA in his 7 career starts. Considering the substantial starting pitching advantage in Toronto's favor, combined with the Jays' success at home and the Halos' struggles on the road, this line's a good 25 cents short.
1* Tigers +176: Admittedly, I don't know much about Jair Jurrjens. His numbers at AA are relatively impressive, (7-5, 3.20, 1.27) but in a matchup of two evenly-matched teams, this price is too generous to pass up. After being one of the most undervalued pitchers for a good part of the first half, Carmona is now the complete opposite. He's thrown twice as many pitches as he did a year ago, when he worked primarily out of the pen, and working against one of the two best offenses in the league, I don't the Tribe laying this much chalk is justified, even against a rookie pitcher making his first big league start.
1* Rockies +178: As good as Chris Young has been, given SD's porous offense, there's always value with the opposition at this price against the Pads, particularly a team as capable and effective offensively as Colorado. Jimenez is a highly regarded prospect who's more than capable of throwing a good game at Petco, and when 2 or 3 runs could easily be enough for the win, I'll take my chances at this generous price.
1* Orioles/Yankees UNDER 9 -110: Bedard's been nearly unhittable of late, going 6-0 with a 1.82 ERA in his last 7 starts. After a poor outing in his first start off the DL, Hughes, who has one of the better arms in baseball, was outstanding in his last start at Cleveland. In an afternoon game at Yankee Stadium where the shadows figure to make it difficult for the hitter's, runs should be difficult to come by.
1* D'Backs +113: Two pitchers headed in opposite directions. After a difficult start to the year, Doug Davis has 7 consecutive quality starts, of which Arizona has won 6 of those games. After pitching over his head much of the first half, Sergio Mitre has come back down to earth, posting a 7.48 ERA over his last 4 starts. I'll take the better team, the better bullpen and the more proven starter at plus money.
1* Brewers Team Total OVER 5 +125: Despite his strong outing against SD, Joel Pineiro's a huge liability as a starter. Pineiro has a 6.02 ERA in his last 57 starts, and I expect him to be exposed tomorrow by a Milwaukee lineup that performs significantly better at home.
