Tuesday Front Page Picks (Aug 14)

Willie Bee · 08-14-07, 09:22 AM

KC Royals +120 at Texas Rangers

Game Time: 08/14/2007 08:35 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Kyle Davies tossed 6.2 scoreless innings in his last start, while Kevin Millwood got torched by the Royals recently. Look for Kansas City to go to 4-0 in the season series.

The Kansas City Royals have actually played some good baseball lately, and these starting pitchers are heading in opposite directions, giving the Royals some good value in this road tilt with the Texas Rangers.

Kyle Davies had a tough assignment in his American League debut for Kansas City, facing the Yankees, but boy did he impress in his follow-up start vs. the Minnesota Twins! Davies tossed 6.2 scoreless innings in that last outing while allowing just three hits, suggesting that he may be tough his first time through the league. He is facing a Texas lineup that is batting a modest .254 vs. right-handed pitchers for the season, and much of that was with some good hitters that are no longer with the team, such as Mark Teixeira.

Texas starter Kevin Millwood appeared to have straightened himself out, but he has regressed again lately with an 8.53 ERA and an atrocious 2.21 WHIP in his last three starts. Furthermore, this stretch included a start vs. these Royals where he was torched for six earned runs on nine hits while lasting only 2.2 innings!

The Royals swept a three-game series from the Rangers in Kansas City the only other times these clubs have met this year, and do not be surprised if the Royals go to 4-0 in the season series tonight at this underdog price.

Free Pick: Royals +120

Willie Bee · 08-14-07, 09:23 AM

Tigers (+135) at Cleveland Indians

Game Time: 08/14/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

The Tigers and Indians open a short, 2-game series in Cleveland tonight in a battle of the top AL Central teams. Fade the Tribe's CC Sabathia and all that chalk and take Detroit.

A huge series starts tonight as the Tigers and Tribe are deadlocked in a first place tie for AL Central supremacy.

Cleveland is coming off a woodshed beating that lasted for three days in their own backyard after the Yanks made mincemeat out of them over the weekend. No doubt they'll enter tonight's game looking to atone for their sins, but that's not going to be enough against this Tiers club that I believe to be the cream of the AL Central crop. Many will be all over Indians ace C.C. Sabathia, the other hefty lefty, but I just can't bring myself to do it. Detroit's Jeremy Bonderman certainly is not in top form coming into this game, but he has the stuff to keep this Cleveland offense in check.

Speaking of the Tribe's run production, where is it? It's just flat out disappeared of late, and I don't think Bonderman's the type of guy they'll just rediscover their magic against. He pitched a gem at The Jake back in early June, and he's won five of his last seven starts in Cleveland. On the flipside, C.C. has lost four of his last five home starts against Detroit.

Simply put, there's too much value here not to take the Tigers. They're the hotter hitting team right now, and they're still trotting out an exceptional hurler even though he's been roughed up his last four starts. This is a statement series for these guys as the Indians have climbed to the top of the division while the Tigers have struggled the last couple weeks. This is a perfect time for them to put some distance between them and the Indians. Look for them to do so as Bonderman picks up his first win in over three weeks.

Free Pick: Tigers +135

Willie Bee · 08-14-07, 09:24 AM

Oakland A's -121 vs White Sox

Game Time: 08/14/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Enigmatic Jon Garland takes to the mound for the White Sox who are equally puzzling this season. Back the Athletics at home in Oakland this evening with lefty Lenny DiNardo on the hill.

Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Oakland Athletics at home over the Chicago White Sox.

Tonight's starter for Chicago is Jon Garland. I challenge anyone to try and predict what kind of start this guy will have. On July 1, he pitched a gem in which he held Kansas City to no earned runs over seven brilliant innings. In his very next start, he gave up an amazing 11 earned runs in only 3.1 innings against Minnesota. Fast forward to July 27 when he had another very nice outing in which he gave up only three earned runs in over seven innings to Toronto. He follows that up with an unbelievably horrendous trip to the mound in which he gave up eight runs in only 1.1 innings to the Yankees.

Garland is truly an enigma these days. But his team is not. They are just plain bad. And they are especially bad against left-handed pitching as they are currently hitting .241 vs. southpaws.

And tonight's pitcher for Oakland is not only a southpaw, but a pretty good one. Lenny DiNardo had some rough years as a reliever, but has now seemingly turned things around with his first opportunity to be a full-time starter with Oakland. DiNardo is trying to make fans in the East Bay forget all about that former A's lefty named Zito as he has put up some pretty impressive numbers with a 3.28 ERA and victories in his last three decisions.

The White Sox are 6-24 in their last 30 meetings in Oakland. Take the A's.

Free Pick: Athletics -121

Willie Bee · 08-14-07, 09:25 AM

New York Mets (-120) at Pirates

Game Time: 08/14/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Steve Zukiel | procappers.com

The Mets are on the road in Pittsburgh tonight, and that suits them just fine with their record away from the Big Apple. Play New York this evening when they open a series with the Pirates.

In this contest, my money is on the New York Mets. The Mets sit atop of the NL East, but they have Philadelphia and Atlanta breathing down their necks. They have to defeat weaker teams like Pittsburgh when presented the chance. I don't think they will have a problem tonight.

Despite New York being on the road, they actually have a better record away from home than they do playing at Shea. They also average close to one run better on the road as well. Pittsburgh meanwhile, is seven games below .500 at home and are averaging just 4.36 rpg.

These two starting pitchers are also heading in opposite directions. New York's Orlando Hernandez has not lost since July 4. During that span the right-hander has gone a perfect 3-0, the team has won all six of his starts and he has allowed just 12 runs and 24 hits in 39.2 innings of work. Pittsburgh's Ian Snell hasn't won since July 4. During that span the right-hander has gone 0-5, the team has lost all six of his outings and he has allowed a whopping 26 runs on 45 hits in just 32 innings of work. One of those outings came against this same New York team and in that start, Snell lasted just four innings, allowing six runs and 10 hits along the way.

Sure, Snell has decent home numbers but in his last two home starts he has allowed 15 hits and 11 runs in 11 innings of work. That is a 9.00 ERA. New York is the better baseball team and they have the much better pitcher on the mound. Though the Mets are on the road, but they actually play better away from home (33-25 away, 32-27 at home). They need this win and they will get it. Take The Mets in this one.

Free Pick: Mets -120

Willie Bee · 08-14-07, 09:29 AM

Angels (+150) at Toronto Blue Jays

Game Time: 08/14/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Great Lakes Sports | playbook.com

The Angels are 6-1 in their last seven and 7-3 in their last 10. Joe Saunders and the Halos are the value play this evening in Toronto against a chalky Roy Halladay and the Jays.

The Angels are on a roll going 6-1 their last seven games, and left-handed starting pitcher Joe Saunders is a perfect 6-0 with an 3.46 ERA this year.

The Angels are also 26-17 when playing a team with a winning record this season, and 40-28 after a win this year. The Blue Jays are 27-31 when playing a team with a winning record this year, and are 37-42 in night games this year.

We look for the LA Angels to grab the road win tonight.

Free Pick: Angels +150

Willie Bee · 08-14-07, 09:30 AM

Astros (+130) at LA Dodgers

Game Time: 08/14/2007 10:10 PM -
By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

Despite the Astros' road woes this season, the Dodgers are in a complete funk at the plate right now. Back Houston as the underdog this evening on the road in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are an absolute go-against team right now as the offense is averaging fewer than two runs per game in their last 10 games.

Brett Tomko has been ineffective as both a starter and a reliever this season for Los Angeles and he features a 2-9 record with an extremely high ERA (5.49). Matt Albers has made just two starts since the All-Star break and one was highly successful against the Dodgers (Jul 25) in Houston.

The Astros are not a good road team but they have improved their play in recent weeks. The Dodgers are just 8-17 in the last 25 home games and Los Angeles should not be favored over anyone right now with the way the team is hitting.

Free Pick: Astros +130

Willie Bee · 08-14-07, 09:31 AM

Seattle Mariners -106 vs Twins

Game Time: 08/14/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Twins are really struggling right now and have dropped their last five road games. Meanwhile, the Mariners are playing well with eight wins in their last 11. Side with Seattle tonight.

After last night's 4-3 loss, the Twins have dropped their last five games, all five on the road. Minnesota is 3-7 in their last 10 and 3-9 in their last 12. In their last five vs. a team with a winning record, they are 0-5.

The Mariners have won eight of their last 11. In their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record they are 9-1. Seattle is 21-8 in their last 29 home games and 7-0 in Horacio Ramirez's last seven home starts. Seattle has won four of his last five overall.

The Mariners are playing very good baseball and will take this one tonight.

Free Pick: Mariners -106

Willie Bee · 08-14-07, 09:32 AM

Rockies (+105) at San Diego Padres

Game Time: 08/14/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

The Rockies continue to hang around in the hunt for the NL postseason, and they have their young lefty Jeff Francis on the mound tonight. Cash on Colorado vs. the Padres in San Diego.

Don't look now, but the Rockies only find themselves five games out of the NL West and they're invading San Diego looking to even up the season series with the Padres at five games apiece.

This young Rockies club has hung around in the division all season long, and they're hungry to make some serious headlines and start being taken seriously within the division. In case you haven't heard of Rockies starter Jeff Francis, listen up. The kid is 13-5 on the year and he's only surrendered 69 earned runs in 153 innings of work. He owns a pristine K/BB ratio of 115/39, and comes into tonight's start sporting a stellar 8-0 mark over his last 11 starts. On top of that, the Rockies are 17-7 in all his starts this year and he's only 14 strikeouts away from surpassing his career strikeout mark in a season.

The kid has been simply sensational for the Rox, and I expect nothing different tonight. I much prefer to back the youngster here at plus money than the cagey old vet Greg Maddux who always seems to run out of gas in the 5th/6th innings. Colorado's bats have been ripping the cover off the ball of late, and I foresee one big inning being just enough to bring home the bacon.

Free Pick: Rockies +105