baseball lines question

[jhack704]

I do not believe you can say that if a line moves from -150 to -140 that the public is wagering on the underdog. Public could continue to wager on the favorite at say $100 per person (for example) and then sharps could be wagering say $500 or $1000 per person on the underdog, thus creating the movement. 50-50 means even money not necessarily people.

yea i know what you mean like a reverse line movement.. i am just trying to see if i can find some kind of trend within the numbers based on favs and underdogs on the moneyline, and now im trying to see if i can find something with -1.5 as well. hope i can find something if not i learned alot by looking at these numbers and seeing if you can hit underdogs at even a 45% rate at least a +120 you will make money

[jhack704]

The number corresponds with a win %. You can determine win % from a moneyline number by using the following formulas:

Underdogs: 100/(100+ moneyline price) = Win %
-Example for +140 dog: 100/ 140+100= 41.67%

Favorites -moneyline price/ (100+ -moneyline price) = Win %
-Example for -140 fav.: 140/ 140+100= 58.33%

So to answer your question, once the book determines their opinion on a team's chance of winning, they'll do the opposite of the calculations presented above, and then add the juice.

Hope this helps.

thanks yes that does help on how the figure out the moneyline!!

[icsky3]

Really good stuff here guys. Good stuff.

[jhack704]

i did 2009 april and may spread of 1.5 when the line is moving in favor of the favorite.. numbers are based on placing 100 on each bet..


-1.5 +100-+150
April= 28-29(6 times the fav won but didnt cover) -$260
May=53-48 (17 times the fav won but didnt cover) +$1420

April would have been postive as well but +120 and +135 combined for 1-12 -$1085. im going to do underdogs now and i will eventually get to 2008 and see if i can find something.

-1.5 +155-+200
April= 10-21(2 times the fav won but didnt cover) -$400
May= 6-24 (8 times the fav won but didnt cover) -$1435

-1.5 -105--150
April= 11-6 +$655
May= 9-8 (2 times the fav won but didnt cover) +$120.00

TOTAL=
april=49-66 (8 times the fav won but didnt cover) -$5.00 (wow big dif here haha)
may= 68-80 (27 times the fav won but didnt cover) +$105 ( wow haha)

TOTAL 117-146 (35 times the fav won but didnt cover) +$100 ( all the work to make $100, im rich! hahhaaha)

[jhack704]

i will try and post wthin a hr the underdogs

[jhack704]

these below are the -1.5 when the line moves in favor of the underdog with 100 being placed on each game..

-1.5 +100-+150
April= 38-81 (19 times the fav won but didnt cover) -$3610
May= 44-62 (14 times the fav won but didnt cover) -$445


-1.5 +155-+200
April=24-29 (5 times the fav won but didnt cover) +$925
May= 23-31 (6 times the fav won but didnt cover) -$240

the record was almost the same but in april +165 and +175 was 10-5 +1190 while in may it was 4-10 -$320.

-1.5 -105--150
April= 2-7 (1 time the fav won but didnt cover) -$585
May= 4-3 +$60

TOTAL=
april=64-117 (25 times the fav won but didnt cover) -$3270
may= 71-96 (20 times the fav won but didnt cover) -$625

TOTAL 135-213 (45 times the fav won but didnt cover) -$3895 (finally some serious coin lost here. i guess i might have found something??

TOTAL 117-146

[nivekk1400]

i agree with above