Friday's Front Page Plays (Aug 10)

Willie Bee · 08-10-07, 10:24 AM

Padres (-106) at Cincinnati Reds

Game Time: 08/10/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Lefty Wilfredo Ledezma makes his first start for San Diego since coming from Detroit in a trade. Back the Padres behind the southpaw on the road in Cincinnati versus the Reds.

Our Friday MLB selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Cincinnati Reds. Will recently-acquired Padres left-handed starter Wilfredo Ledezma be the next pitcher to have his name added to the list of those who resurrected their careers with a move from the American to the National League?

Think Derek Lowe, Ted Lilly, and Orlando Hernandez. Not that Ledezma is as talented as any of those and it's unlikely he'll put up the type of numbers they are this season, but he is relatively young (26) and a southpaw, which means that as long as he can give some quality innings to the Padres, then he's worth giving a shot every five days. Ledezma gets the chance because the Padres cut loose veteran lefty and pain in the butt David Wells, who finally stopped pitching well enough to justify the headaches he brings to the team.

This is a great spot for Ledezma against a team that strikes out more than any other in the majors. Cincy also has problems hitting southpaws, and is starting a guy in right-hander Matt Belisle who is producing anything but quality innings.

There is no doubt the Padres are a better overall team than the Reds, and they play very well on the road (29-26) so if they can jump on Cincy and Belisle early, it should give Ledezma enough confidence to put together at least six decent innings before handing it over to the best bullpen in the league. San Diego has won six of the last eight meetings. Take the Padres.

Free Pick: Padres -106

Willie Bee · 08-10-07, 10:26 AM

New York Yankees -125 at Indians

Game Time: 08/10/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Will Cover | playbook.com

Cleveland's sticks have been slow since the All-Star break while New York's offense has been blistering the ball. Play the Yankees on the road tonight when they take on the Indians.

Despite posting seven runs in last night's 7-5 win over the White Sox, the Tribe has had trouble scoring runs since the All-Star break, averaging just over four runs per game and going 13-14. In those 27 games, they have scored three or fewer runs 12 times.

Conversly, the hot Yanks are 8-2 in their last 10 and have gone 20-8 since the break, averaging 7.4 RPG during that run. New York swept the Tribe (3-0) in Gotham earlier this year, outscoring Cleveland 27-11. Respect Indians right-handed pitcher Fausto Carmona (13-6), but the Yankees' Phil Hughes will get enough run support to out-score the slumping Cleveland offense. Play on the Yankees!

Free Pick: Yankees -125

Willie Bee · 08-10-07, 10:29 AM

St Louis Cardinals +103 vs Dodgers

Game Time: 08/10/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

Los Angeles' Brad Penny has been in a slump lately and the Dodgers are over-valued with him on the mound. Side with St. Louis at home behind Adam Wainwright on the mound.

Dodgers right-hander Brad Penny has been very average in the past month with a 4.70 ERA, and after going 6-8 after the break last season he appears to be in the midst of another disappointing second half.

Penny is still greatly over-valued as the Dodgers are road favorites despite being shut out in four of their last six games. Los Angeles is averaging just 2.7 runs per game in the last 10 contests while hitting .225 as a team.

Despite a poor start to the season, St. Louis is just a few games back in the NL Central. Adam Wainwright has allowed three or fewer runs in seven of his last 10 starts, and the Cardinals offense has shown improved numbers in the past few weeks even if it has not translated into a major winning streak.

The Dodgers found a way to pull out a win yesterday but facing travel this will be a tough spot as Los Angeles is just 5-14 in the last 19 games.

Free Pick: Cardinals +103

Willie Bee · 08-10-07, 10:31 AM

SF Giants (-110) versus Pirates

Game Time: 08/10/2007 10:15 PM -
By: Dave Price | touthouse.com

Matt Morris makes the first start against his former team tonight since being traded from the Giants to the Pirates. Don't expect the San Francisco lineup to take it easy on him.

Entering tonight's game in San Francisco, Pittsburgh is 5-15 against the moneyline against NL West opponents this season.

Russ Ortiz is 70-30 against the moneyline as a home favorite of -110 or higher since 1997. He is 43-18 against the moneyline vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game since 1997. He is also 8-1 in his last 12 starts against Pittsburgh with an ERA of 3.25.

Pittsburgh is a terrible 20-34 on the road. Take the Giants.

Free Pick: Giants -110

Willie Bee · 08-10-07, 10:34 AM

Pick Phillies (-146) vs Braves

Game Time: 08/10/2007 07:35 PM -
By: Brad Diamond | playbook.com

This is a very crucial series in the NL postseason race, and the Phillies have home field advantage and the edge on the mound tonight. Play Philadelphia in the series openers with Atlanta.

Huge series and opener for the Phillies who are chasing the Braves and Mets in the NL East division. Although I respect the Braves' improved lineup, I can’t help but notice Philadelphia's Cole Hamels is super at Citizen's Bank Park!

Overall the Phillies have won 13 of 18, but more importantly the Phils are 6-1 in their last seven at home with lefty Hamels. In fact, at home in this price range the Phils have gone 10-1 their last 11 times on the board.

We have great respect for the Braves' improved lineup, but Hamels is at the top of his game while the Phils are in need of a big win!

Free Pick: Phillies -146

Willie Bee · 08-10-07, 10:35 AM

Colorado Rockies (-149) vs Cubs

Game Time: 08/10/2007 09:05 PM -
By: Tom Freese | sportspic.com

Chicago's Jason Marquis sports a bloated 7.79 ERA in his last six starts and now must face Colorado's lineup at their own Coors Field. Ride the Rockies to a win at home tinight.

It's tough enough to pitch in Coors Field. It gets even tougher when you have more walks than strikeouts in your last three starts.

That is what the Cubs' Jason Marquis is up against tonight. Marquis is just 5-14 in his last 19 August team starts. Colorado starter Aaron Cook is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in two career starts vs. the Cubs. Cook is 9-5 in his last 14 August starts and the Rockies are 17-7 at home at night vs. righties. Play on Colorado (Cook vs. Marquis).

Free Pick: Rockies -149

Willie Bee · 08-10-07, 10:36 AM

New York Mets -150 vs Marlins

Game Time: 08/10/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Mets are starting to feel the heat in the NL East Division as the Braves and Phillies keep winning. Play New York as home favorites tonight when the Mets host the Florida Marlins.

In their last 12 games as an underdog the Marlins are 2-10. Florida is 2-9 in their last 11 road games. In their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record, they are 1-9 and in their last 16 overall the Marlins are 5-11.

Tonight Florida sends a rookie to the mound to face a solid Mets lineup. The Mets are 11-4 in their last 15 games played on Friday. In their last 10 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 the Mets are 7-3.

Florida has lost their last four meetings with the Mets. New York is feeling the heat and this is a game they must win. Play on the Mets.

Free Pick: Mets -150