Wednesday's Front Page Picks (Aug 08)

[Willie Bee]

Cash Cubs (even) at Houston Astros

Game Time: 08/08/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The Cubs have been cooled down the past two nights in Houston and they don't want to get swept. With Carlos Zambrano on the mound for them, Chicago won't have to worry about that.

Our Wednesday night MLB selection is on the Chicago Cubs over Houston. Alfonso Soriano is out through August with an injury, and the Cubs' offense certainly is struggling without his bat. But I'm not sure that will make a difference tonight with Carlos Zambrano on the mound.

Consider that Zambrano is 4-0 with a 0.89 ERA in his last five outings. That alone is impressive, but he also dominates Astro bats as he has won four straight starts overall versus the Astros and is 5-0 with a 0.51 ERA in his last seven games against them. Overall, in his career, he's 10-5 with a 2.29 ERA in 21 appearances versus Houston.

Finally, Zambrano has been solid on the road this season with a 9-2 mark and a 2.83 ERA, and has thrown a remarkable 21 consecutive scoreless innings at Minute Maid Park. In his last five starts at Houston, he is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA. Take the Cubs.

Free Pick: Cubs (even)

[Willie Bee]

Nationals, Giants Under 8 in San Fran

Game Time: 08/08/2007 10:10 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Barry Bonds has his home run record so can we get back to baseball now? Play the Under this evening in San Francisco when the Giants host the Washington Nationals at AT&T Park.

Yesterday's game finished above the total of 8½ with Barry Bonds hitting his historic home run. That "slugfest" notwithstanding, the Under remains a profitable 21-12-1 in 34 games that the Nationals have played with a totals line of 8-8½, including a 10-5 mark in 15 games on the road.

Meanwhile, the Giants have now seen the Under go 22-15-3 in 40 home games with an Over/Under line of 8-8½. I won't be surprised if we see another relatively low-scoring contest this evening.

Tim Redding has a 2.43 ERA in six starts for Washington this season. The Under was 5-0-1 in those six games, including 3-0 the last three. Although he hasn't pitched too well against them, it's also worth noting that Redding has seen the Under go 3-0 in three career starts vs. San Francisco.

San Francisco's Matt Cain has seen the Under go 3-0 in his last three starts and 12-6 his last 18 here at home. Cain faced the Nationals here once (August 2006) and allowed only four hits and two runs through seven innings. That game finished well below the number with a final score of 4-1.

Excluding a few games which landed directly on the number, the Giants have seen the Under go 30-20 at home this season. Consider a play on the Under.

Free Pick: Nationals-Giants Under 8

[Willie Bee]

Play Padres +102 at Cardinals

Game Time: 08/08/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Even thought Kip Wells has been awful for St. Louis this year, Greg Maddux and San Diego are small pups in this one. Pick the Padres on the road tonight against the Cardinals.

Future Hall-of-Famer Greg Maddux takes on Kip Wells and the Cardinals in St. Louis this evening knowing know he is 15-5 in his last 20 team starts in August.

Despite having some tough luck in the wins columns of late, Maddux has been pitching well in his last four starts. Over the course of 23.1 innings in those starts, he has allowed eight earned runs (3.08) and walked just two with 11 strikeouts.

Meanwhile, Wells has dropped 16 of his 20 team starts this season, including 11 of his 13 starts at night. With Maddux a strong second half hurler over the years, we'll back him and the Padres here tonight.

Free Pick: Padres +102

[Willie Bee]

Cubs (-102) at Houston Astros

Game Time: 08/08/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Tony George | 10starpicks.com

The Cubs look to avoid a sweep in Houston tonight, and having Carlos Zambrano on the mound will help their quest. Grab Chicago on the road when they finish their series with the Astros.

After two straight beat-downs by the Astros in this series, I look for the Cubs get one tonight, a pitchers duel between ace's Carlos Zambrano of the Chicago and Roy Oswalt of Houston that should be a good one.

Zambrano is 2-0 in his last three starts, with an ERA of 1.45 and a WHIP of 1.18. He is 7-1 on the road this year allowing 26 runs. Roy Oswalt has stiffened up against hitters the past three outings, and they were all very impressive, with an overall ERA of 0.95 and an WHIP of 0.84. Now that is some impressive numbers from the mound for both teams, but something has got top give tonight.

Looking at duels between two good pitchers, I look in two areas for opportunity since almost always the moneyline is at -100 or less for either team which is the case tonight. Hitting as a team, especially recent form which is important, shows Houston has struggled at the plate, hitting just .219 against right-handers, so run support may not be there for Oswalt. The Cubs are hitting a decent .272 against righties in their last 10, and while that is not setting the world on fire, it's better than the 'Stros. Oddsmakers also think this is a duel of pitchers and less than impressive hitting teams, as the total is set at 7½ for tonight's tilt in Houston.

Another issue to concern yourself with on a tight moneyline and a pitchers duel is the bullpens for each team. The Cubs' bullpen has a respectable ERA of 4.32 in their last 10 games while Houston's has been lit up with a 6.11 ERA. As I break down the relief pitching for middle innings by the Astros, they have tossed out a 5.27 ERA on the year, less than impressive, while the Cubs are under 4.00 in the same department.

The Cubs need a win to keep pace in their division as they are a game behind the Brewers and have a 4-game weekend series against Colorado on deck. I doubt they miss an opportunity tonight with their best hurler on the mound to avoid a sweep by the Astros. The Cubbies also get Aramis Ramirez back tonight on third base with a batting average of .313 on the season to bolster their chances at the plate tonight.

This should be a good game tonight with evenly matched pitchers on the hill, but the intangibles lie with the Cubs.

Free Pick: Cubs -102

[Willie Bee]

Nationals +137 at SF Giants

Game Time: 08/08/2007 10:10 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

The spotlight has been on Barry Bonds this series, and for good reason. However, missed in the Home Run Hoopla is the great baseball the Washington Nationals are playing right now.

Although the Washington Nationals are all but out of postseason contention, they continue to surprise the league. Washington has been red-hot since the All-Star break and after last night's win over the Giants have now won 10 of their last 13 ballgames. The win last night improved their record to 52-61 and moved them into a virtual tie with Florida for fourth in the NL East.

Part of the improvement can certainly be tracked to their recent offensive performance that has seen them increase their run production from 4.0 runs per game to 6.7 over their last seven while their hitting has improved from .247 to .325. In addition their pitching has stepped up as witnessed by tonight's starter Tim Redding who has been just about unhittable posting an impressive 2.43 ERA overall and a microscopic 0.95 over his last three starts. That is going to spell trouble for a San Francisco team who is only hitting .230 over their last seven games.

Now that Mr. Bonds has broken the home run record, the Giants really have nothing more to look forward to this season. After last night's loss the Giants are 48-63 good for last place in the NL West.

They will attempt to stem the tide when they send right-hander Matt Cain to the hill. Cain has had a very disappointing season in the win column going a horrible 3-12 on the season. Home cooking hasn't helped either as Cain is only 1-7 in his home starts this season. In his career starts versus Washington, Cain is 0-2 with a 4.35 ERA.

Supporting Angles: Washington is 20-13 (+11.4 Units) against the moneyline in the second half of the season this season. Washington is 36-28 (+16.3 Units) against the moneyline after having won four of their last five games over the last three seasons. The Giants are 1-14 (-15.1 Units) against the moneyline in Cain's night games this season.

Not much fire left in the Giants while Washington is just playing great baseball. This price is just too good to pass up for a team playing as well right now. I'm taking Washington in this one.

Free Pick: Nationals +137

[Willie Bee]

Dog Kansas City Royals +195 vs. Twins

Game Time: 08/08/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

Despite his recent struggles, the books continue to over-value Twins ace Johan Santana. Play the Kansas City Royals as big home dogs tonight against Minnesota.

The Twins are just 1-3 in Johan Santana’s last four starts and the two-time Cy Young winner has not been at that level this season. He has allowed seven home runs in his last four starts and on the season the Twins are just 13-10 in his starts despite being a huge favorite in most games.

Despite being 6-4 in their last 10 games, Minnesota is averaging just 2.5 runs per game in that span. In the last three games Minnesota has scored a grand total of just two runs.

Meanwhile Kansas City is hitting .303 in the last 10 games with strong run production. Odalis Perez does not have strong numbers on the season but he has kept the Royals in games for the most part. He will be a tough left-handed matchup as the Royals have beaten Minnesota twice already this season with Perez on the mound.

Free Pick: Royals +195

[Willie Bee]

Take Toronto Blue Jays vs Yankees

Game Time: 08/08/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy Boyd | touthouse.com

It's very, very rare to get Toronto ace Roy Halladay at home as the underdog. So take advantage of the play tonight when the Blue Jays host the over-valued New York Yankees.

The Blue Jays have lost two straight to the Yankees, but they will save some face with their ace Roy Halladay on the hill tonight.

Rarely will we get this good of value with Halladay on the mound at home. In fact, playing the over-valued Yankees is really the only chance for it to happen and we will take advantage. Halladay is 8-1 at home this season. He has been a Yankee killer going 9-4 with an ERA of 2.96 and a WHIP of 1.203 in his last 22 starts against them.

Halladay is 35-11 against the moneyline in night games over the last three seasons, 23-9 against a -125 to +125 moneyline at home since 1997, and 27-6 against the moneyline in games played on artificial turf over the last two seasons. Take the Jays.

Free Pick: Blue Jays +117

[Willie Bee]

Colorado Rockies -120 vs Brewers

Game Time: 08/08/2007 03:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

The Rockies have posted wins in nine of Jeff Francis' last 10 starts. Cash on Colorado this afternoon at home in Coors Field when they close their series with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Jeff Francis, the Colorado Rockies starting pitcher tonight, has lost only one decision in his last 17 trips to the hill, including 11 wins during that span. In 12 of those 17 outings Francis has allowed two or fewer earned runs.

Needless to say, the Canadian hurler gives his team a chance to win every time he makes a start. Francis has seen his team win his last nine starts against an above .500 team, like the Brewers, and looks like a viable bet against a Wisconsin-based squad that has lost 21 of their last 29 games as underdogs.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Colorado is 18-4 in their last 22 at home. Play on the Rockies.

Free Pick: Rockies -120

[Willie Bee]

Orioles and Mariners Under 8

Game Time: 08/08/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Tom Freese | sportspic.com

The Under has been the trend for Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie in home starts and Seattle's Felix Hernandez in road outings. Play under the total tonight when the Orioles host the Mariners.

Two young right-handers with electric stuff hook up here in what we say will be low-scoring game.

Baltimore starter Jeremy Guthrie has allowed three or fewer runs in 16 of his 18 starts this year. The Orioles have gone 6-2-1 Under in his nine home starts this year. Seattle starter Felix Hernandez has allowed 18 runs total in his last seven starts. The Mariners have gone 6-2 Under in eight road starts made by Hernandez. Play on the Under (Guthrie vs. Hernandez).

Free Pick: Mariners-Orioles Under 8

[Willie Bee]

Indians (-141) the play at Chicago White Sox

Game Time: 08/08/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Tribe lefty C.C. Sabathia is having a Cy Young caliber season and facing a White Sox team he has had success against. Play the Indians on the road tonight in Chicago.

The Indians are struggling having won just four of their last 10 games, but tonight C.C. Sabathia is on the mound facing a team he likes to pitch against.

The Indians are 23-7 in Sabathia's last 30 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. In his last 22 starts as a favorite the Indians are a money-making 16-6. Cleveland is 18-7 in Sabathia's last 25 starts overall.

Chicago has dropped four of their last five games vs. a left-handed starter. In their last 17 games as a home dog of +110 to +150, they are 5-12. Jon Garland starts tonight and the White Sox are 4-10 in his last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

The Indians are 8-2 in Sabathia's last 10 starts in Chicago. The White Sox are 3-7 in Garland's last 10 home starts vs. the Indians. With C.C. on the mound vs. Chicago, you have to play on the Indians.

Free Pick: Indians -141