Saturday's Front Page Picks (Aug 4)

Willie Bee · 08-04-07, 09:47 AM

Indians, Twins to stay Under 9½ (-125)

Game Time: 08/04/2007 03:55 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

This is not a replay of Friday’s Santana vs. Sabathia matchup. But Matt Garza has impressed since his recall, and Aaron Laffey should do well in his debut, so go Under.

This afternoon's game between the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians does not feature the "big name" starters like we saw in yesterday's Santana vs. Sabathia showdown.

However, we should still see another well-pitched affair. Garza has been superb since being called up from the minors and has a 1.48 ERA in four starts for the season. The last three of those games all finished below the number, including a 4-1 win over these same Indians most recently. Note that Garza had a whopping 11 Ks in just six innings in that game.

Aaron Laffey will make his debut for the visitors after putting up some impressive numbers in the minors. Laffey started the season at Double-A Akron where he went 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA. Next, he went to Triple-A Buffalo where he went 7-3 with a 3.28 ERA with 62 Ks to just 19 walks. He will obviously have the advantage of facing the Twins for the first time, and I would not be surprised if he rises to the occasion with a big game.

Lastly, note that the Under is a perfect 6-0 the last six times that the Twins faced a southpaw, with those six games averaging less than six combined runs each. Look for another Under today.

Free Pick: Indians, Twins Under 9½ (-125)

Willie Bee · 08-04-07, 09:48 AM

Play Braves on run line vs Rockies

Game Time: 08/04/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Mark "The Shark" Miller | sharkhandicapping.com

The Braves' hot offense was shut down last night by Colorado's Jeff Francis. But look for the Atlanta sticks to come back strong enough for a run line wager today behind Tim Hudson.

When and how do you play the run line on favorites? As we get into this play let’s talk about the proper use of the run line.

If you are playing the run line to try and win big plus-money games, the chances are you are going to lose more then you win. You play the run line to protect your bankroll and that is the only reason you should play a run line favorite. My advise is to limit your favorites to -150 and below in baseball. So, when you have a team that has some strong edges in a game and you really want to play that game you can get even or plus money by playing on the run line.

How can you tell if you’re using the run line properly when giving up the 1½ runs? First off, and most obvious, it is whether you win or lose the game. But more importantly you want all your run line losses to also be straight up losses! If you are betting the run line and giving up 1½ runs and your team is winning by one run, you are not using the run line properly. If your run line losses are straight up losses or wins by more then two runs, then you have used the run line properly and you are protecting your bank roll. This is a difficult concept to adjust to and, whether you agree or not, track this approach and in the end you will see the logic of protecting you bank roll by playing the run line instead of trying to get a big payday on run line game with a short moneyline price.

Which brings us to our run line selection today and the Atlanta Braves. We all know about Tim Hudson and the current pitching run he is on. He is 2-0 in his last three games with an ERA of 1.59. Atlanta is on a 7-game winning streak with him starting a game and he has allowed one run or less in three of his last four games.

All you have to do is decide if Ubaldo Jimenez is the real deal and can he shut down Atlanta’s offense that is hitting over .300 in their last 10 games against right-handed pitching. Jimenez has three starts this season and has fared well having not allowed more then three runs in any start. The most hits he has given up in a game is four.

Because Atlanta brings a hot offense and Hudson to the mound we would have to lay a hefty price on the moneyline to get Atlanta, but can take Atlanta on the run line, -1½ runs at +110. Due to the relative unknown of how Jimenez will perform today, and with Hudson on the mound making this look like an easy win, it is a little scary paying in the -180’s. But playing the run line at +110 will bring protect you bankroll if Atlanta were to lose the game.

I believe that Jimenez gets a wake up call and get hammered today. Take Atlanta on the Run Line.

Free Pick: Braves -1½ (+110)

Willie Bee · 08-04-07, 09:49 AM

Padres -132 over Bonds & Giants

Game Time: 08/04/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The Padres have added some offense to what is the best pitching staff in baseball. Look for San Diego to beat the Giants for the ninth time in 12 meetings.

The San Diego Padres have wanted to add some offensive firepower to their squad, which features arguably the best pitching in baseball for quite some time, and it looks like they have done it.

In the past five games, the Padres have scored 38 runs, and that includes getting shut out in one of those games by last year's Cy Young award winner, Brandon Webb of the Arizona Diamondbacks. This firepower is coming from a couple of unlikely sources in the form of a pair of recently acquired players, outfielder Milton Bradley and third baseman Morgan Ensberg. Bradley has been playing great since being acquired back in early July, and Ensberg barely had time to unpack his backs from a July 31 deadline trade from the Astros, when he found himself in the starting lineup on Thursday night.

It did not take long for the new Padres corner man to get acquainted with his surroundings, as he promptly belted two homers in the game and led his new team to an 11-0 rout of Arizona. Unfortunately however, just when things would seem right on both sides of the ball, the Padres number two man (a co-ace with Jake Peavy if you will), Chris Young, has had to go on the Disabled List due to an oblique issue, and Bradley sustained an injury in last night's game.

Young's absence has opened the door for right-hander Clay Hensley, who has pitched very well in three relief appearances since returning to the Major Leagues from AAA, where he was sent earlier this season. Also, San Diego is 8-3 in the last eleven meetings with tonight’s opponent, the San Francisco Giants.

Free Pick: Padres -132

Willie Bee · 08-04-07, 09:51 AM

Pick the Mets at Wrigley vs. Cubs

Game Time: 08/04/2007 03:55 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

John Maine continues to keep his ERA under 3.00 for the Mets, and he has had success vs. the Cubs in the past. Throw in a superior bullpen and the Mets are the play.

The New York Mets cooled off the Chicgo Cubs here in Wrigley Field yesterday, and we are looking for the New Yorkers to emerge victorious again today.

John Maine always gives the Mets a chance to win, as he is 12-5 with an outstanding 2.92 ERA and 1.13 WHIP for the season. More importantly, the Mets are 14-7 as a team in all the games that he has started, as well as 26-10 in his last 36 starts stretching back to last year! Maine allowed just one hit in a rain-shortened five-inning shutout vs. the Washington Nationals in his last start, and he has allowed a total of three runs in 12 innings in two career starts vs. the Cubs.

Now Ted Lilly does have some nice statistics himself, as he is 11-5 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. However, the Cubs are just a mediocre 12-10 in all of his starts, which is probably more of an indictment of the shaky Cubs bullpen than anything else. That was evident yesterday when the Mets scored four runs off of Chicago closer Ryan Dempster in the ninth inning for the 6-2 victory.

On the other hand, the Mets have the second lowest bullpen ERA in the National League at 3.52, and with these starters sporting similar numbers, this bullpen superiority should key another Mets win.

Free Pick: Mets -105

Willie Bee · 08-04-07, 09:52 AM

Rangers, Blue Jays Over 9½

Game Time: 08/04/2007 01:07 PM -
By: Scott Rickenbach | playbook.com

These two went over the total last night at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. Look for yet another high-scoring affair this afternoon when the Blue Jays host the Texas Rangers for Game 2.

Yesterday's game found it's way over the total even with a resurgent Kevin Millwood and a Cy Younger, Roy Halladay, on the mound. We have little doubt that this afternoon's game will also find it's way over the total as Kameron Loe and Shaun Marcum square off.

Two solid lineups are meeting and with these two starters on the bump the decent bullpens these teams have will not be enough to keep this game under the total. Loe is 0-3 with a 6.08 ERA in his last five starts. Loe does have solid numbers against the Blue Jays in his career, but the appearances have certainly been limited. We were not impressed at all with the way Loe threw against the Royals in Sunday's 10-0 loss.

As for the Blue Jays' Marcum, he is coming off of a strong start against the White Sox on Sunday. However, he did end up with a 4.75 ERA in July and he's got a 4.50 ERA in his career against the Rangers.

Note that Marcum has struggled in daytime outings in his career as evidenced by his 6.46 ERA in 69.2 innings under the sun. He also has struggled versus lefties in his career as they have enjoyed the most success against him. The Rangers have a decent number of left-handed bats and switch hitters that they can use in this afternoon's matchup.

Look for double digits again in today's contest just like last night's matchup. Play Over the total in Toronto!

Free Pick: Rangers-Blue Jays Over 9½

Willie Bee · 08-04-07, 09:59 AM

D-Lowe, Dodgers to dump D-Backs

Game Time: 08/04/2007 10:10 PM -
By: John Ryan | 10starpicks.com

The Diamondbacks have quietly surged into the NL West lead. But they will find themselves on the short end of tonight's score in LA when they take on Derek Lowe and the Dodgers.

Arizona has been hot -- hot only in the win column and quite frankly that is what counts. But I do believe they have had this winning streak among numerous mirrors and a bit of smoke if you know what I mean.

They are batting just .221 with a .292 OBP over their past seven games and only .247 for the season. Although the bullpen sports a 4-0 record over the same span, they have also been lucky while sporting a 5.40 ERA.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are batting .280 at home and .276 on the season. LA's bullpen has been great at home and even better in divisional games sporting a 2.88 ERA and 1.209 WHIP. The offense does not strike out much and the bullpen gets a high amount of strike outs, a very good combination and recipe that will serve them well down the stretch.

Livan Hernandez has had some real problems in his last three starts sporting a 7.72 ERA and 1.96 WHIP. Derek Lowe had been struggling, but regained his top level form in his last start. In that start against Houston he gave up just one earned run.

Arizona is 65-101 (-53.0 Units) against the moneyline vs. teams whose hitters strike out six or fewer times per game in the second half of the season since 1997. Arizona is 1-9 when installed as an underdog of +150 or more.

The Diamondbacks have been red hot, but let's not forget that August has been the Dodgers' month. They sport a 22-8 mark in August games with Grady Little at the helm. Take the Dodgers.

Free Pick: Dodgers -173

Willie Bee · 08-04-07, 10:03 AM

Mariners to dice Matsuzaka, Sox

Game Time: 08/04/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Jimmy Boyd | touthouse.com

The Red Sox are having a solid season. But they've struggled in Seattle lately, dropping 10 of their last 12 there. Make the Mariners your play this evening against Boston.

The Mariners have dominated the Red Sox at home in Seattle over the last three seasons winning 10 of 12 meetings.

Seattle is on fire winning five of its last six games with Friday’s matchup pending. At 36-20, the M’s are one of the best home teams in baseball. Boston is a terrible 10-21 against the moneyline in August games over the last two seasons and Seattle is 18-10 against the moneyline against AL East opponents this season. Take the mighty Mariners.

Free Pick: Mariners +137

Willie Bee · 08-04-07, 10:06 AM

Twins & Indians Under 9½

Game Time: 08/04/2007 03:55 PM -
By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

Minnesota's Matt Garza has been pitching very well and his Twins' teammates will be facing an unfamiliar pitcher in Indians lefty Aaron Laffey. Play the Under today in Cleveland.

Matt Garza has been brilliant since getting called up with just four runs allowed in four starts. The wins are not there yet because the Twins' offense is not putting together enough runs.

With inexperienced rookies now in the lineup the offense does not offer much promise at high output. Minnesota has scored over five runs just once in the last 19 games heading into today's game with Cleveland.

Indians rookie starter Aaron Laffey will be an unfamiliar pitcher for the Twins and the left-hander could find some early success if he avoids walks. Garza should shut down an Indians offense that is hitting just .228 in the last 10 games and this should be a low-scoring outcome.

Free Pick: Twins-Indians Under 9½

Willie Bee · 08-04-07, 10:07 AM

Marlins to mash Jennings, Astros

Game Time: 08/04/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Dave Price | procappers.com

Jason Jennings has been in horrible form lately, and is coming off allowing 11 runs in less than an inning in his last start. Play the Marlins at home in Miami this evening vs Houston.

The Astros have lost seven of Jason Jennings’ last eight starts. His 2-7 mark with an ERA over 6.00 will not strike any fear into the Marlins at home in this one.

Florida right-hander Sergio Mitre has won three of his last four decisions. We anticipate his sinker giving the poor-hitting Astros all kinds of trouble today. Take the Marlins at home.

Free Pick: Marlins -151

Willie Bee · 08-04-07, 10:08 AM

Cleveland, Minnesota Under 9½

Game Time: 08/04/2007 03:55 PM -
By: Jeff Alexander | procappers.com

Cleveland's hitters have been struggling and Minnesota has been playing under the total with regularity since the All-Star break. Make the Under your play today at the Metrodome.

The Twins are 20-8 Under in August games over the last two seasons and 18-8 Under in the second half of the season this season.

Minnesota had gone under the total in five straight games entering Friday night’s game. With the way the Tribe has been struggling at the plate, we’ll make an Under play on the Twins and Indians here.

Free Pick: Indians-Twins Under 9½

Willie Bee · 08-04-07, 10:09 AM

Athletics with Blanton +120 to surprise Angels

Game Time: 08/04/2007 03:55 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The home/away splits for these starters actually favor Blanton over Escobar here. With Oakland going 6-2 in the last eight meetings, play the A’s as a home dog.

Joe Blanton has been a far superior pitcher at home for the Oakland Athletics than he had been on the road, and he gives the A’s nice value as a home underdog vs. the Los Angeles Angels in this spot.

Blanton may be just 8-8 overall, but he has a sparkling 2.95 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 82.1 home innings, covering 11 starts. He has also allowed two earned runs or less in six of his nine career starts vs. the Halos. Conversely, Kelvim Escobar has not been as effective on the road as at home for Los Angeles.

In fact, the Angels as a team are just 28-29 on the road compared to 35-16 at home, and Oakland is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings overall. Look for the A’s to make that seven of nine here today.

Free Pick: Athletics +120

Willie Bee · 08-04-07, 10:10 AM

Back Giants to pop Padres

Game Time: 08/04/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Tom Freese | sportspic.com

San Diego's Clay Hensley is bouncing from the bullpen into the rotation tonight, and he's had mixed results as a starter. Grab the Giants as home dogs in San Francisco in this one.

San Diego starter Clay Hensley is in terrible strikeout-to-walk form with more walks than strikeouts in his last three starts.

Hensley has allowed 11 runs in nine innings of work in two starts against San Francisco this year. The Giants are going with highly touted left-hander Patrick Misch who put up some awesome numbers in the minors. Play On San Francisco (Misch vs. Hensley).

Free Pick: Giants +122

Willie Bee · 08-04-07, 10:11 AM

Bet Boston to bash Seattle

Game Time: 08/04/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Greg Daraban | playbook.com

Boston has not had much success lately playing in Seattle. But that changes tonight behind right-hander Daisuke Matszaka. Back the Red Sox tonight against the Mariners.

It's Game 2 of the series at Safeco as Daisuke 'Dice K' Matsuzaka takes on Jarrod Washburn. Boston is rolling toward the AL East flag as the Sox look to hold off the Mariners in this game, and hold the Yankees at bay in the division.

Boston in a great situation as they have a power lineup and face a pitcher who has an ERA of 4.11. Sox hurler Matsuzaka, in his first season in a Boston uni, has an ERA of 3.75. The Sox also have the best record in majors. Why, because they can win on the road.

Boston takes this one in coffee country.

Free Pick: Red Sox -142

Willie Bee · 08-04-07, 10:13 AM

On O's to dog Devil Rays

Game Time: 08/04/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Though Tampa Bay has the pitching edge on paper in this one, the Orioles are a solid dog play. Bet Baltimore this evening when they continue their series with the Devil Rays at The Trop.

Baltimore is 8-3 in their last 11 games. In their last 14 games played on Astroturf the Orioles are 10-4. The Orioles have won four of their last five games played on Saturday.

Tampa Bay is 17-36 in their last 53 games. In their last 59 games vs. AL East teams the Devil Rays are a horrible 17-42. In their last 63 games vs. a team with a losing record they are 16-47. In Scott Kazmir's last seven home starts vs. a team with a losing record, Tampa Bay is 2-5. Tampa has lost four of his last five starts vs. Baltimore.

The Orioles have won six of the last eight games played in Tampa. The Orioles are 38-14 in the last 52 meetings overall between the clubs. Play on the Orioles.

Free Pick: Orioles +129