Thursday's Front Page Plays (Aug 2)

Willie Bee · 08-02-07, 09:14 AM

up Indians -176 at home vs. Rangers

Game Time: 08/02/2007 12:05 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

The Indians have the advantage of facing Gabbard for the second time in a week today, so look for them to rough him up again and avoid the home sweep.

The Cleveland Indians should have plenty of motivation this afternoon, as they will be attempting to avoid an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the Texas Rangers in front of the home fans.

They also should have the pitching matchup in their favor, as they have the advantage of facing Kason Gabbard, who they roughed up for five earned runs in 4.2 innings last week when he was with the Red Sox, for the second time in less than a week. Gabbard has an awful 6.91 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the road this season including that start. Conversely, Jake Westbrook has a respectable 4.14 ERA at home, and he is 4-1 lifetime vs. Texas.

Look for Westbrook to outpitch Gabbard, as the Indians avoid the sweep and improve to 9-1 the last 10 times they played a home game on a Thursday.

Free Pick: Indians -176

Willie Bee · 08-02-07, 09:15 AM

Angels and A's to continue low-scoring trend in Oakland

By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Oakland has been an ATM machine for the Under at home, and given that the Under is also 36-15 in recent meetings with the Angels, tonight should be no different. Look for Chad Gaudin to return to his first half form for one night, and for the southpaw Joe Saunders to give Oakland fits.

The head-to-head series between the Los Angeles Angels and the Oakland Athletics has been a low-scoring one in recent years, with the Under going a stellar 36-15-1 in the last 52 encounters.

Furthermore, the Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings here in Oakland over the last two seasons, with an average combined total score in those games of only 6.50 runs per game. The home/away splits for these two teams this season also point to a pitcher’s duel here. The Under is an amazing 35-15 in all Oakland home games, with an average total score of 7.87 runs per game, as well as a profitable 28-23 in all Angels road contests.

Now we predicted that Oakland starter Chad Gaudin would have a tough go of it in the second half of the year after a surprisingly strong first half, and so far he has met our expectations. However, he did pitch better in his last start, albeit while allowing four runs, as he surrendered just four hits in eight innings. This could put him on edge for a Quality Start here vs. a Halos team that he already shut down once in this stadium this year, limiting them to one run and just four hits in 7.2 innings back in April.

Now Joe Saunders is hardly a household name in Anaheim, but he has proven to be quite serviceable when called upon to start this season. Saunders has now made seven spot starts this year, and he has allowed three earned runs or less in six of them with four official Quality Starts. The southpaw has also allowed three runs or less in two of his three career starts against Oakland, which is not all that surprising considering how much the A’s struggle with left-handed pitching.

While neither of these starters will be an All-Star any time soon, both appear capable of hold their respective opponents in check tonight, thereby extending the string of Unders in this series.

Free Pick: Angels, Athletics Under 9 (-110)

Willie Bee · 08-02-07, 09:17 AM

Cubs to keep cranking out wins

Game Time: 08/02/2007 02:20 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

The Cubs moved into first place in the NL Central by percentage points with a win over the Phillies yesterday. Look for that momentum to carry over for Chicago again this afternoon.

Since taking Game 1 of their series with Chicago, it's been nothing but a nightmare for the Fightin' Phils. They lost a pair of outfielders to the DL already, and they're playing with a revamped lineup. They're not coming up with the big hits when they're needed most, and they're coming off a deflating loss last night when Brett Myers's wild pitch allowed the Cubs to win in walk off-fashion with the bases loaded.

Needless to say, the Phillies may have met their match here. Their best shot to take a lead in this series was last night with another lefty on the bump. Jamie Moyer failed, and now the Cubs get to feast upon some righty pitching, which they're much better against, and the Phillies' putrid pen that ranks in the bottom third of all MLB.

Wrigleyville is insane right now with the Cubs catapulting themselves into a first place tie with Milwaukee last night. Look for that momentum to carry over this afternoon on what's going to be a hot and muggy day in Chi Town. Sean Marshall has simply been brilliant of late. He's only allowed four earned runs and 16 hits in 18 innings of work over his lsat three starts, and has struck out twice as many batters as he's walked.

This will be Kyle Lohse's first start for Philly after being picked up right at the trade deadline. His stuff is nowhere near overpowering, but he's been in the strike zone this year and his walks are down because of it. That being said, the Cubs bats are en fuego. They're doing the small things to win games right now, and the 40,000+ on hand will make it that much tougher for the Phils to escape Chicago with a split.

Look for the Cubs to get to Lohse early and then feast upon the visitor's pen while Marshall goes 6-7 innings and the Cubs' pen closes it out for a 3-1 series win over their NL East counterparts.

Free Pick: Cubs -140

Willie Bee · 08-02-07, 09:18 AM

Side with the Angels at Athletics

Game Time: 08/02/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Tom Freese | playbook.com

Oakland's Chad Gaudin started the season on fire but has rapidly cooled off. Meanwhile, the Angels are 6-1 in Joe Saunders' starts this year. Back the Halos on the road tonight.

Los Angeles Angels starter Joe Saunders has allowed four or fewer runs in all seven of his starts this year. The Angels are 6-1 in those starts.

Oakland starter Chad Gaudin has been getting hit hard of late, allowing 19 runs in his last 21.2 innings of work. He now faces an Angels team that has scored five or more runs in eight of their last 10 games. Play on Los Angeles (Saunders vs. Gaudin).

Free Pick: Angels +101

Willie Bee · 08-02-07, 09:19 AM

Guthrie & O's the play in Boston

Game Time: 08/02/2007 01:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | sportspic.com

It's getaway day at Fenway as the Red Sox and Orioles conclude their three-game set. Back Baltimore behind rookie right-hander Jeremy Guthrie when he faces Boston this afternoon.

The Orioles have been one of the hotter teams coming out of the All-Star break having won four of their five series since the break.

Impressive rookie Jeremy Guthrie is in red-hot form going 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA in his last three outings. The young hurler on the road is 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA in eight starts this season. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of those games.

With that said, and considering we get value with the hotter team batting better than .360 over their last 15 games, a top notch thrower and a team appearing intent of playing spoiler in the second half of the season, it wil not be a hard decision backing Baltimore in this spot.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Boston is a below .500 (30-31) as a favorite when they won the last time they faced their opponent's starting pitcher, despite laying an average of -162, a loss of 20.22 units in this situation. Play on Baltimore.

Free Pick: Orioles +132

Willie Bee · 08-02-07, 09:21 AM

Orioles, Red Sox to stay Under 9½

Game Time: 08/02/2007 01:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Under is 11-6 in all games started by Baltimore’s Guthrie this season, as well as 4-0 in Wakefield’s last four home starts. Look for another Under here.

Everything points to an Under when the Baltimore Orioles visit the Boston Red Sox this afternoon.

The Under is 8-3 in Baltimore's last 11 games, including 5-0 the last five times that they have been underdogs. The Under is also 11-6 when Guthrie has started for the Orioles this year, including 9-3 in his last 12 starts and 5-2 when he has started on the road.

Boston has played to the Under in seven of their last nine games. Wakefield's last four home starts have all gone Under, and it is 21-7-2 the last 30 times that he has started on five days rest. The Under is also 5-1 in Wakefield's last six starts vs. Baltimore.

Finally, eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these teams have gone Under, so look for more of the same.

Free Pick: Orioles, Red Sox Under 9½ (-115)

Willie Bee · 08-02-07, 09:22 AM

Rockies, Marlins to slug Over 9½ (-120)

Game Time: 08/02/2007 07:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Marlins have been one of the better Over teams in the league, especially at home. With two struggling pitchers on the hill, look for more of the same.

The Over is a wallet filling 31-18 in all Florida Marlins home games this season, and we look for that pattern to continue here vs. the Colorado Rockies given this pitching matchup.

Marlins starter Rick Vanden Hurk has somehow managed to go 3-2 this season, but he has an alarming 7.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP, with the Over going 6-3 in all of his starts. Moreover his numbers are actually a tad worse at home, where he owns a 7.71 ERA and a hideous 1.99 WHIP!

The Rockies counter with Jason Hirsch, who is 4-7 with 4.90 ERA. Hirsch made the struggling San Francisco Giants offense look like Murders’ Row in his last start, as he surrendered six earned runs on eight hits in just five innings of a wild 12-10 Florida loss.

The last 10 Marlin games have averaged a combined total of 10.70 runs per game, and we expect another double-digit combined output tonight.

Free Pick: Rockies, Marlins Over 9½ (-120)