A decent Friday showed a little profit, but nothing spectacular. Here's what I'm going with for Saturday:
Medium:
Mariners -109 (Horrifico/Gaud Awful)
Not exactly a premier pitching battle here. As expected, converted reliever Gaudin is getting pummelled since the All-Star break. I've cashed by either betting against him or betting over in all three of his starts. Here's what he has done: 13.2 IP, 20 hits, 17 BB, 10 K, 15 ER. That's a 2.71 WHIP and a 10.23 ERA.
Even though the righty/lefty situation favors the A's, I'm still riding the Gaudin fade in this game. The Mariners do still have large lineup and bullpen advantages, their home record is much better than the A's road record, and Ramirez has been great at home - 5-0 with a 2.27 ERA as opposed to his 0-3 record and 13.72 ERA away from home.
Light:
Cardinals (Reyes/Capuano)
Anthony Reyes is 0-10. But I still believe he is going to be a good pitcher. His WHIP and BAA are around the league average, he doesn't give up many HRs, and he really shouldn't be 0-10. For one thing, he doesn't get any run support (29 runs in his 12 starts), but that could change here, as the Cardinals' key hitters own Capuano:
Capuano has been particularly bad at the new Busch (0-2, 8.18 ERA/1.55 WHIP, .292 BAA), and his road numbers this year are ugly. Milwaukee has done their best work against lefties, so I think Reyes could do enough to get a win here.
Dodgers (Tomko) @ Rockies (Francis) Over 9.5 -115
Tomko is awful at Coors, has been terrible on the road throughout his career, and won't last deep into this game, thus exposing the soft underbelly of the Dodgers bullpen. Francis is a very good pitcher, but has struggled recently (5 or more ER in four of his last six starts), and the Dodgers hammer left-handed pitching.
Devil Rays -103 (Shields/Lester) - 1st five innings
It's a great story that Lester won his first start back from the DL. Good for him. That was the first time in years I've wanted a Red Sox player to do well. But it's absurd that he is favored for the first five innings of this game. Now, of course the Devil Rays bullpen is likely to blow this game. But the Rays should be close to -130 for the first five innings. James Shields can be dominant, and has been regularly this season. His home numbers are very good, and his WHIP tells the story of his caliber more than his ERA, which is inflated because of a couple ugly starts at Yankee Stadium and Chase Field. Most of the runs he has allowed have come when he has been forced to pitch too long because of the lack of a bullpen behind him. The Red Sox aren't a great hitting team away from home, as they showed last night by getting shutout the first five innings by a pitcher nowhere near Shields' ability.
Medium:
Mariners -109 (Horrifico/Gaud Awful)
Not exactly a premier pitching battle here. As expected, converted reliever Gaudin is getting pummelled since the All-Star break. I've cashed by either betting against him or betting over in all three of his starts. Here's what he has done: 13.2 IP, 20 hits, 17 BB, 10 K, 15 ER. That's a 2.71 WHIP and a 10.23 ERA.
Even though the righty/lefty situation favors the A's, I'm still riding the Gaudin fade in this game. The Mariners do still have large lineup and bullpen advantages, their home record is much better than the A's road record, and Ramirez has been great at home - 5-0 with a 2.27 ERA as opposed to his 0-3 record and 13.72 ERA away from home.
Light:
Cardinals (Reyes/Capuano)
Anthony Reyes is 0-10. But I still believe he is going to be a good pitcher. His WHIP and BAA are around the league average, he doesn't give up many HRs, and he really shouldn't be 0-10. For one thing, he doesn't get any run support (29 runs in his 12 starts), but that could change here, as the Cardinals' key hitters own Capuano:
Duncan 2-5, .400, 2B
Eckstein 5-15, .333, 2B
Encarnacion 7-18, .389, 3 2B, 2 HR
Pujols 13-22, .591, 2 2B, 3 HR
Eckstein 5-15, .333, 2B
Encarnacion 7-18, .389, 3 2B, 2 HR
Pujols 13-22, .591, 2 2B, 3 HR
Dodgers (Tomko) @ Rockies (Francis) Over 9.5 -115
Tomko is awful at Coors, has been terrible on the road throughout his career, and won't last deep into this game, thus exposing the soft underbelly of the Dodgers bullpen. Francis is a very good pitcher, but has struggled recently (5 or more ER in four of his last six starts), and the Dodgers hammer left-handed pitching.
Devil Rays -103 (Shields/Lester) - 1st five innings
It's a great story that Lester won his first start back from the DL. Good for him. That was the first time in years I've wanted a Red Sox player to do well. But it's absurd that he is favored for the first five innings of this game. Now, of course the Devil Rays bullpen is likely to blow this game. But the Rays should be close to -130 for the first five innings. James Shields can be dominant, and has been regularly this season. His home numbers are very good, and his WHIP tells the story of his caliber more than his ERA, which is inflated because of a couple ugly starts at Yankee Stadium and Chase Field. Most of the runs he has allowed have come when he has been forced to pitch too long because of the lack of a bullpen behind him. The Red Sox aren't a great hitting team away from home, as they showed last night by getting shutout the first five innings by a pitcher nowhere near Shields' ability.
I know you've supported Reyes as a quality pitcher in the past, let's hope he starts showing what he's got in him.