Yesterday I began an experiment, betting the ML on all the teams that SBR says have an edge as indicated in the Power Line section of the Matchup So far the experiment is 3-0. Here is what SBR says the power line is: "The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated."
What this means simply is if a team should be a big favorite but is not then the bettor has an edge because the odds are better than they should be. Also, if a team should be a small dog but the line makes them a big dog, then the bettor has an edge.
If a team has an edge it is marked with a green star. Here is the line for the Tampa Bay / Baltimore game from July 26th:
917: TAMPA BAY 10.0 38-62
918: BALTIMORE -120 46-53
And here is the Power Line section of the matchup for the same game:
Power Line
Team Pitcher Estimate Edge
TAMPA BAY JACKSON +184
BALTIMORE TRACHSEL -184 *
As you can see, Baltimore should be a huge favorite, but the ML is -120, definitely a high value play for the bettor.
The matchups from July 26th showed 3 teams with an edge:
Kansas City 7 - 0 New York Yankees
Baltimore 10 - 7 Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh 8 - 4 New York Mets
So far the "edge" experiment is 3-0.
The power line on Pittsburgh had them at +134, I got them at +180.
The power line for Kansas City showed them having an edge but I cannot find the matchup from yesterday.
I will be posting the results of this experiment every day under the title "Power Line Edge results for dd/mm/yy"
I may refine this by varying bet size based on the amount of the edge, as soon as I figure out a way to determine what the bet size should be. LOL.
I will be using a bet size of $20 per star and equating the edge to a 5 star pick until I figure out how to calculate the actual number of stars. In my world 5 stars is my "standard" $100 bet, and I won't bet a team below 3 stars. Right now I use $20 per star. You can equate the 5 stars to your world by just equating it to your "standard" bet and dividing that by 5 to get an amount per star. The highest I ever go is 100 stars. I have never lost a 100 star play. Most of my bets are 10 or 20 stars. On > 50 star plays I increase the bet size per star to $30.
Hopefully, we will have an edge with the edge picks.
What this means simply is if a team should be a big favorite but is not then the bettor has an edge because the odds are better than they should be. Also, if a team should be a small dog but the line makes them a big dog, then the bettor has an edge.
If a team has an edge it is marked with a green star. Here is the line for the Tampa Bay / Baltimore game from July 26th:
917: TAMPA BAY 10.0 38-62
918: BALTIMORE -120 46-53
And here is the Power Line section of the matchup for the same game:
Power Line
Team Pitcher Estimate Edge
TAMPA BAY JACKSON +184
BALTIMORE TRACHSEL -184 *
As you can see, Baltimore should be a huge favorite, but the ML is -120, definitely a high value play for the bettor.
The matchups from July 26th showed 3 teams with an edge:
Kansas City 7 - 0 New York Yankees
Baltimore 10 - 7 Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh 8 - 4 New York Mets
So far the "edge" experiment is 3-0.
The power line on Pittsburgh had them at +134, I got them at +180.
The power line for Kansas City showed them having an edge but I cannot find the matchup from yesterday.
I will be posting the results of this experiment every day under the title "Power Line Edge results for dd/mm/yy"
I may refine this by varying bet size based on the amount of the edge, as soon as I figure out a way to determine what the bet size should be. LOL.
I will be using a bet size of $20 per star and equating the edge to a 5 star pick until I figure out how to calculate the actual number of stars. In my world 5 stars is my "standard" $100 bet, and I won't bet a team below 3 stars. Right now I use $20 per star. You can equate the 5 stars to your world by just equating it to your "standard" bet and dividing that by 5 to get an amount per star. The highest I ever go is 100 stars. I have never lost a 100 star play. Most of my bets are 10 or 20 stars. On > 50 star plays I increase the bet size per star to $30.
Hopefully, we will have an edge with the edge picks.
