Thursday's Front Page Plays (July 26)

Willie Bee · 07-26-07, 10:06 AM

Back Red Sox -112 with Gabbard at Indians

Game Time: 07/26/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Gabbard is pitching like he wants to stay in the Boston rotation, allowing just nine hits in his last three starts. Take the Red Sox over the struggling Lee.

On Tuesday night, Daisuke Matsuzaka battled C.C. Sabathia on the mound, and the Boston Red Sox came out of it with a hard fought 1-0 victory. On Wednesday night the score was the same, as Fausto Carmona went toe-to-toe with Josh Beckett, only this time it was the Cleveland Indians who prevailed.

The combined number of wins on the season for those four starters is now an amazing 51. Tonight it is back to reality, as the Sox left-handed second-year man Kason Gabbard will face Cleveland's left-handed veteran Cliff Lee. The combine number of 2007 wins for these two is nine.

Gabbard is trying to show that he belongs on the big club, and in fact, in the rotation, when veteran Curt Schilling comes back around August 1. Gabbard is speaking loud and clear so far, with a 4-0 record, 2.97 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He has proven to be extremely stingy when it comes to giving up hits, and in fact in his last three starts, he has only surrendered an amazing total of nine hits in over twenty-two innings!

Lee has been the anti-Gabbard in his last three outings, and the Indians have to be concerned with his performance as they try and stay in the pennant chase with a very hot Detroit squad. If there is any reason for hope, it is that Lee is a respectable 2-2 with a 3.72 ERA in six career starts vs. the Sox.

Then again, he has never been in this kind of a funk before when he had to face them, so take Boston this time around.

Free Pick: Red Sox -112

Willie Bee · 07-26-07, 10:08 AM

Brewers, Reds to slide Under 9½ (-105)

Game Time: 07/26/2007 12:35 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Bush and Livingston are not household names, but both are in good form now. With both pitchers allowing three runs or less in the last thee starts, go Under.

Both David Bush of the Milwaukee Brewers and Bobby Livingston of the Cincinnati Reds are in good form right now, so we look for a rather low-scoring affair today.

Bush has now reeled off five Quality Starts in his last six starts overall, and he is starting to dispel the notion that he cannot pitch on the road, as two of those outings came away from home. Livingston has a nice 3.52 ERA in four starts, allowing three runs or less in his last three outings. The southpaw has never faced Cincinnati before, which should make him doubly tough.

Finally, for the trend-lovers out there, the Under is now 28-12 the last 40 times that Milwaukee was a road favorite in the 125-150 range, so go Under again.

Free Pick: Brewers, Reds Under 9½ (-105)

Willie Bee · 07-26-07, 10:09 AM

A's & M's to stay Under 8

Game Time: 07/26/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Tonight's contest in Seattle should stay below the total with right-handers Dan Haren on the mound for the Athletics and right-hander Jeff Weaver taking the hill for the Mariners.

Seattle's Jeff Weaver has been pitching better of late and he comes off an excellent outing in which he allowed only four hits and one run through eight complete innings. That game ended up with a 1-0 final score.

It's also worth noting that Weaver allowed only four hits and one run (through 5.1 innings) when he faced Dan Haren and the A's at Oakland three weeks ago. Haren, who allowed three runs through 6.1 innings in that game, has been dominant all season, going 11-3 with a 2.41 ERA. Not surprisingly, the Under is a highly profitable 14-6-1 in Haren's 21 starts this season, including a 7-3 mark on the road. Haren allowed no earned runs (four unearned) the only previous time that he visited Seattle. That game finished well below the number with a final score of 4-0.

This should be another well-pitched affair. Consider a play on the Under.

Free Pick: Athletics-Mariners Under 8

Willie Bee · 07-26-07, 10:10 AM

Orioles -129 to finish sweep of Devil Rays

Game Time: 07/26/2007 12:35 PM -
By: John Martin | touthouse.com

The Devil Rays are the laughing stock of baseball, and only on this staff would Edwin Jackson have a job in the big leagues. Lay the modest juice here.

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are having serious trouble winning ball games.

They are a woeful 5-22 in their last 27 games overall, and starting pitching has been their downfall the whole time. Edwin Jackson will not help matters tonight, as he is 2-9 with a 6.65 ERA during his 2007 campaign. He has given up 109 hits in 86 innings with a terrible WHIP of 1.81.

The Baltimore Orioles are 6-0 in the last 6 head-to-head meetings with Tampa Bay this year. The Orioles are also 5-0 in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 39-13 in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

Finally, the Devil Rays are 16-64 in their last 80 games as a road underdog. Cash your tickets with Baltimore tonight.

Free Pick: Orioles -129

Willie Bee · 07-26-07, 10:11 AM

A's & Haren to scuttle Mariners

Game Time: 07/26/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | sportspic.com

Oakland has been in a bit of a rut since the All-Star break, but they have the mound advantage tonight in Seattle. Chalk up the Athletics on the road in this one versus the Mariners.

Seattle enters into this home game against Oakland having lost six straight games, and with the inconsistent Jeff Weaver (2-8, 6.19 ERA) going to the hill to pitch for them today, they look like great fade material.

I know Weaver has looked good of late, but despite that he's still allowed 44 hits in 34 innings of work at Safeco Field this season, garnering a hefty 5.82 ERA in the process. The A's will return fire with one of their top hurlers Dan Haren who is 11-3 on the season along with a tight 2.41 ERA. including 111 strikeouts. Haren is 4-0 in his last eight away starts while recording a nifty 2.77 ERA. He owned the Mariners entering 2007, going 5-0 along with a 2.95 ERA in six starts, before running into some bad luck this season, losing to Seattle twice despite of a stellar 2.19 ERA in those outings because of poor fielding behind him.

Bottom line: I expect the Athletics and Haren will take advantage of a struggling Seattle team in this spot. Play on Oakland.

Free Pick: Athletics -133

Willie Bee · 07-26-07, 10:14 AM

Cubs -110 to stay scorching at Cardinals

Game Time: 07/26/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

The Cubs remain the hottest team in baseball, Marquis has already beaten the Cardinals twice already, and Looper has tailed off badly. All signs point to Chicago.

After watching the first two games of this series, it is clearly evident that the St. Louis Cardinals just do not have the horses to run with the Chicago Cubs at this point in time.

Tuesday night's game saw the Cubs overcome a 2-1 deficit, and pull off the 4-3 victory behind a solid effort from the bullpen. Wednesday night saw the same men in blue take it to the Cardinals’ hottest pitcher in the month of July, and cruise to the 7-1 victory. Chicago is humming on all cylinders right now, and they now sit just two games in back of the division leading Brewers, who lost again last night to Cincinnati.

The Brew Crew plays early on this afternoon, so the Cubbies will know full well whether a win will inch them a game that much closer, or if they need to hold serve to keep pace. Since getting off to a fast start as a starter this season, Braden Looper has fallen on hard times losing two of his last three starts while allowing 23 hits and 13 earned runs in only 15.1 innings of work. He beat the Cubs way back in April, but that's when he was hot and the Cubs most certainly were not! It is retribution time today. Jason Marquis has already beaten his former mates twice this season, and as the saying goes, “Everything comes in 3's.”

I am a firm believer in that belief, and I am also a firm believer in the fact that the hottest team in baseball will whip out the brooms and sweep their most hated rivals. Then they will head to Cincinnati and become big Redbird fans as they host the Brew Crew for a three-game set starting Friday night. Lay the short chalk with the Cubbies as they hold the upper hand on the mound, in the dugout, and in the bullpen.

Free Pick: Cubs -110

Willie Bee · 07-26-07, 10:15 AM

Make Mets your play vs Pirates

Game Time: 07/26/2007 12:10 PM -
By: Brad Diamond | playbook.com

The Mets have been playing better since the All-Star break, winning nine of 13 and five of their last six. Play New York at home in Shea this afternoon when the end their series with the Pirates.

Although the Braves and Phillies have shown improvement since the break, the Mets once again are clearly the choice in the National League East.

New York hurler Oliver Perez is in a nice set today with the Mets winning two of three recent outings with the lefty. His pitching form is good, too, with Perez throwing a 1.32 WHIP and a solid 2.29 ERA in his last three on the board. Overall this season the lefty is 9-6 with a great 3.00 ERA.

Opposing hurler, Paul Maholm of Pittsburgh, has style and wins when his location is down. The Pirates are 7-13 in his starts with an ERA over 4.50. With the Pirates 0-6 in their last six as an underdog, stay with the redeveloping Mets who are the Kings of the East.

Free Pick: Mets -200

Willie Bee · 07-26-07, 10:16 AM

Take Sizzling Cubs -104 over Cardinals

Game Time: 07/26/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Larry Cook | touthouse.com

The Cubs have the best record in baseball since June 3, and they appear to have the pitching advantage tonight with Jason Marquis over St. Louis' Braden Looper. Play Chicago.

The Chicago Cubs are the hottest team in baseball since June 3.

Everything is clicking and they have the advantage today on the mound with Marquis vs. Looper. The Cubs are 13-7 in Marquis’ 20 starts in 2007, and he has just a 3.92 ERA for the year. Braden Looper features a 7.63 ERA over his last three starts, and over a 5.00 ERA on the season. The Cubs will touch him up for at least five runs tonight with the way they have been hitting the ball.

The Cubs have won four straight over St. Louis, and they are 8-0 in their last eight road games vs. a right-handed starter. They are also 7-1 in Marquis' last eight starts vs. the National League Central.

The Cardinals are 1-5 in Looper's last six starts following a team loss in their previous game, so bet Chicago tonight.

Free Pick: Cubs -104

Willie Bee · 07-26-07, 10:17 AM

Side with Sox at Indians

Game Time: 07/26/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

This series has gone to the pitchers the last two nights in a pair of 1-0 games, and Boston's Kason Gabbard gives the Red Sox the edge this evening in the series finale at Cleveland.

Boston has won five of their last six games. In their last 27 Thursday games, the Red Sox are a money-making 21-6. Boston is 16-7 in their last 23 games as a road favorite and has won six of Kason Gabbard's last eight starts.

Cleveland has lost four of their last six games vs. AL East opponents. The Indians have lost tonigh's starting pitcher Cliff Lee's last three starts. In Lee's three career home starts vs. Boston, the Indians are 1-2 and the Tribe is 2-4 in the six meetings between the clubs this season.

Boston has won eight of their last 11 visits to Cleveland. Play on the Red Sox.

Free Pick: Red Sox -110

Willie Bee · 07-26-07, 10:19 AM

LA's Penny is money against Rockies

Game Time: 07/26/2007 09:05 PM -
By: Tom Freese | sportspic.com

Dodgers right-hander Brad Penny has had good success in his career against the Rockies, and Los Angeles is 16-4 with him on the mound this season. Play LA at Colorado.

The Dodgers' Brad Penny is 14-2 in 16 career team starts against Colorado. Penny is 5-0 in his last five team starts in Colorado with a 3.33 ERA, and Los Angeles is 16-4 in his 20 starts this year.

The Rockies' Rodrigo Lopez has allowed 21 runs in his last five starts covering 26.2 innings of work. Colorado is 1-4 in those five games. Play on Los Angeles (Penny vs. Lopez).

Free Pick: Dodgers -135

Willie Bee · 07-26-07, 10:24 AM

Yankees and Royals to sneak Under bloated total

By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Yankees and Royals stayed Under last night, and look for another Under tonight with this big total. Igawa has improved lately, and de la Rosa has had some shining moments this season, and he held the Yankees scoreless in his only start against them. Add in two improved bullpens, and go Under.

At first glance, one would expect a slugfest when the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals square off tonight in Kansas City. After all, Kei Igawa of the Yankees enters this contest with a 6.67 ERA, while Jorge de la Rosa of the Royals comes in at 5.61.

However, a deeper look reveals that this contest could easily slip Under this fat posted total of 11½. Yes, Igawa pitches up in the strike zone way too often, but he has shown some marked improvement recently, allowing two and three runs in his last two starts respectively. Granted he was pulled after five innings after each start, but there is nothing wrong with employing that strategy again here.

This is because the previously maligned Yankee bullpen has really come around nicely, in fact now ranking 10th in the Major Leagues with a 3.67 pen ERA. Thus, it is no coincidence that the Yanks have limited the Royals to a total of seven runs in the first three games of this series, and are allowing just 3.90 runs per game in the last 10 games. Furthermore, if you toss out one 14-run explosion by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, the Bombers allowed just 2.78 runs per game in the other nine games.

We would not be surprised to see the Royals held to three runs or less tonight, meaning that the Yankees could score eight runs and this game would still stay Under. Now de la Rosa was hit hard by the red-hot Detroit Tigers offense in his last start, but he had allowed three runs or less in each of his previous four starts. Besides, it is not as if de la Rosa is without ability despite his ERA, as he has allowed three runs or less in 12 of his 20 starts this season. New York is well aware of just how good de la Rosa can be, as he tossed 5.2 scoreless innings at the Yankees while allowing just six hits in his only career starts against them last season.

Finally, the Royals bullpen has also come a long way since the start of the season, as they are now in the top half of the majors with a 3.88 pen ERA. Yes, the Royals are still allowing a rather high 5.60 runs per game over the last 10 contests, but a comparable performance here would probably still be good enough to keep this game Under this inflated number.

Free Pick: Yankees, Royals Under 11½ (-115)