LUNT's Pick Of The Night - 07/25

[LUNT101]

New York Mets -160 vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

When I first glanced at the matchup in this game, I was initially leaning towards the Pirates at +140 because I like Gorzelanny and Glavine has f*cked me over a couple times this year. However, Glavine has been great at home all season. Eight of his nine home starts have been quality starts, with the lone non-quality start being a 6IP, 4ER performance against the Cubs. Here are the lines for his last 4 home starts.
-vs. CIN (8IP, 1ER)
-vs. STL (6IP, 0ER)
-vs. OAK (8IP, 1ER)
-vs. PHI (7IP, 2ER)
Pittsburgh's lineup is equal to or worse than any of the above lineups and with their lowly .260 BAA against lefties this season, I don't see them giving Glavine any trouble. Glavine has also been very good against the Pirates at Shea, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in five home starts against them since joining the Mets in 2003. While Gorzelanny has unquestionably been the Pirates ace this season, he hasn't faired extremely well against good lineups on the road. His last 3 road starts against good lineups:
-@ATL (6IP, 4ER)
-@LAA (6IP, 3ER)
-@NYY (6.1, 4ER)
Not horrible starts, but certainly not gems. New York hits .287 against lefties and their offense has been clicking as of late. As a side note, the Pirates have lost 9 of 10 since the All-Star break. The Mets also have a significant bullpen edge.

I'm liking the Mets on the ML. Hopefully my 'Pick Of The Night' streak can continue. Good luck!

[LUNT101]

Any feedback is appreciated.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Personally, I'm not touching this game.

[Rusted Trombone]

Love the pick. Great info. Good luck tonight.

[LUNT101]

You too sir.

[LUNT101]

I've seen a lot of people saying they're taking Pittsburgh today, but not a lot of reasoning except Gorzelanny is good and Glavine is old. Anyone want to enlighten me on the upside in this game for the Bucs?

[The HG]

I moderately agree with you on the Mets for now, although I'm going to look into it more. A bad team as a good-sized underdog on the road with a good starter against a good team with a good bullpen is a classic trap line situation you can see over and over again over the years. Look at how many teams have lost to the Angels like that. I think this game may present simialr circumstances. Yes I like the Mets here as well, I'm just not sure how much at this point.

[MJFtheGenius]

I have the mets, the pirates are so cold andthe mets are so hot and just cause of that im taking the Mets. LETS GO METS!!!

[AC1318]

TGor..........................TGla

132.0 Innings Pitched 125.2
9-5 Wins-Losses 8-6
3.20 Earned Run Average 4.51
38 Walks 41
86 Strikeouts 58
105 Pitches Per Start 99
Career vs. opponent
8.0 Innings Pitched 280.0
0-1 Wins-Losses 21-12
6.75 Earned Run Average 3.09

the guys are pretty even for the year

[AC1318]

BATTER VS. PITCHER (Career)
vs Tom Glavine
Player AB H HR BB SO AVG
LaRoche 5 4 1 3 0 .800
Phelps 3 2 0 0 0 .667
Nady 6 3 0 0 2 .500
McLouth 2 1 0 0 0 .500
Bay 14 6 1 1 3 .429
Complete Batter vs Pitcher

BATTER VS. PITCHER (Career)
vs Tom Gorzelanny
Player AB H HR BB SO AVG
Reyes 3 2 0 1 0 .667
Green 2 1 0 0 1 .500
Lo Duca 4 2 0 1 0 .500
Delgado 4 1 0 0 1 .250
Wright 4 1 0 0 0 .250
Complete Batter vs Pitcher

glavine been hit a little worse with a couple HR's

[AC1318]

the only thing going for the mets is they pretty much own pitt in NY but glavine sits at 9-5 overall 5-4 at home vs pitt

[LUNT101]

nobody is saying that glavine has had a better year than gorzelanny; there's no need to compare their stats.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Umm the comparison is the justification for taking PIT....

[rmcaj]

This is an easy winner, Pirates are dreadful and the Mets know they need these wins right now only being up 3 to the Braves. I think under 8 in this game is also a great play. I can see this game being like 2-1 Mets going into the 7th, with a final score of like 5-2 Mets. Under and Mets are the plays.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I was hoping to get a better price for Gorzo. Just not in love with either side at this line....

[LUNT101]

Umm the comparison is the justification for taking PIT....

There are alot of other factors. If you read my original post in this thread, Glavine has been money at home recently and Gorzelanny has been decent at best on the road against good lineups. The Pirates lineup is awful and the Mets are hitting well. What I was trying to say is that comparing things like how many strikeouts Glavine has over the entire season compared to Gorzelanny isnt proving anything.

[AC1318]

nobody is saying that glavine has had a better year than gorzelanny; there's no need to compare their stats.

I never said gorzelanny had a better year than glavine or vice versa either didn't you ask for feedback or did I read that some place else. based on the above and the pitcher batter stats are important as these people are facing each other tonight I would side with pitt. I may not play the game so it doesn't matter to me. Also I am reading just as many post if not more of people betting NYM, I would be more concerned with that.

you should bang the chick in your avatar maybe you won't be so jumpy.

[area51steve]

I got the mets in this game too. I just can't believe the betting public is favoring the pirates. The pirates are like a double AA team playing in the majors. I got 3 grand on this one. Good luck everyone!!

[AC1318]

There are alot of other factors. If you read my original post in this thread, Glavine has been money at home recently and Gorzelanny has been decent at best on the road against good lineups. The Pirates lineup is awful and the Mets are hitting well. What I was trying to say is that comparing things like how many strikeouts Glavine has over the entire season compared to Gorzelanny isnt proving anything.

noboby compared strikeouts just flashing the stats for whoever cares, again I would look more at the lineups vs the pitchers and how they played.

[BatemanPatrickl]

nobody is saying that glavine has had a better year than gorzelanny; there's no need to compare their stats.

AC was just trying to help. If you post asking for feedback, be prepared for views and/or opinions that don't match yours.

[RJS]

I like the Mets quite a bit tonight. Good luck

[LUNT101]

you should bang the chick in your avatar maybe you won't be so jumpy.

AC was just trying to help. If you post asking for feedback, be prepared for views and/or opinions that don't match yours.

I think my post came off as if I was responding with attitude which I most certainly wasn't. Sorry about that. Hope you guys had the Mets and won with me!