Pre-preseason previews

[Willie Bee]

"My pick: 83 wins, 4th in NL East"

YOU ARE SMOKING SOMETHING WILLIE B???? 4th in the east no way senor

These are some very preliminary notions of mine, Señor Freeze. Will plug in some final stats and hit go with some simulations in the coming week, and then put out some firmer predictions as they relate to season win totals. Note that I did say this is a team that could challenge for the division title. Not sure I see a lot of space between second and fourth, maybe 3-4 wins at season's end. Might be just 4-5-6 wins between the top four places.

As for St. Claire, you're talking about the same guy that was in charge of the Nationals pitching staff for a few years, right? You might be right about him being a real guru that can get the Marlins staff to find its collective groove, but that notion isn't necessarily borne in some incredible progression of the Washington staff the past few seasons

Braves get back to WS, some way, just a gut feeling.

Back to the Series is a bit of a leap for me, but I do think ATL has a damn good shot to get back into October baseball. The Braves will need several vets to stay healthy, starting on the infield corners, and Billy the Kid has to prove he can handle a closer's role for a full season again. But I do like their chances.

[nitty48]

yankees will win it again this year with Granderson in CF and almost everyone coming back. They are aging but they are still the best/richest franchise in the MLB.

[FrozenMAN]

As for St. Claire, you're talking about the same guy that was in charge of the Nationals pitching staff for a few years, right? You might be right about him being a real guru that can get the Marlins staff to find its collective groove, but that notion isn't necessarily borne in some incredible progression of the Washington staff the past few seasons

i see where you're coming from and same goes but simply compare the arms he had to work with when in washington and those he has in FLA. no one has witnessed the brillance of mr. st clair until this year.

THE FLORIDA MARLINS WILL HAVE 2...YES 2...20 game winners and 2 with ATLEAST 13

i need to start my season long fish thread up in a couple weeks and offer my preview on the season, its gonna be a WILD ONE

[Willie Bee]

no one has witnessed the brillance of mr. st clair...

On this claim, we can both agree.

THE FLORIDA MARLINS WILL HAVE 2...YES 2...20 game winners and 2 with ATLEAST 13

I'll take that bet.

[Willie Bee]

Part 9 of 10

Phillies go for rare NL three-peat

Armed with an ace like Roy Halladay and having the National League's most devastating offense, the Philadelphia Phillies are ready to go for a third consecutive pennant.

One can imagine Johnny Carson, decked out in his turban as Carnac the Magnificent, holding the envelope to his head and announcing, "A Willy and a Wang." The audience would prepare for some sort of joke about a man's privates, only to be hear Carson say, "Name the two latest additions to the Nationals' roster.

The deal for Chien-Ming Wang just shot across the rumor wires Thursday afternoon, the eve for 12 of the 30 MLB clubs to officially welcome pitchers and catchers to camp. The Nationals don't have their P&C day until this weekend, but the club has called a news conference for Friday, Feb. 19, according to the team's MLB.com site, to announce the righthander's new contract believed to be worth between $2 million to $3 million.

Wang has been limited to 27 appearances on the mound the past two seasons combined due to assorted injuries, from a foot problem in '08 to having his right shoulder scoped last summer. He made nine starts and three relief showings last year for the Yankees, going 1-6 with a 9.64 ERA. Wang recorded back-to-back 19-win seasons in 2006-07, finishing second in the AL Cy Young voting in '06.

The report is he could be back on an MLB mound as early as late May.

The signing of Willy Taveras is a bit strange, not from the Nationals standpoint as they get the speedy outfielder on the cheap with a minor league contract. What makes it odd is the A's, who just a week ago traded Aaron Miles to the Reds in a four-player deal that brought Taveras to Oakland, will be on the hook for about $3.5 million owed Taveras in 2009. It's not like the Athletics have an extra $3.5 million to throw around like the Yankees.



Washington also officially added second baseman Adam Kennedy to their 40-man roster this week after inking the free agent to a one-year deal plus a 2011 club option.

All of this for a club that is off consecutive 59-win seasons and expected to be in the NL East basement again, well behind one of the clubs in this preview.

Philadelphia Phillies 11/2
2009 record/finish: 93-69, 1st in NL East
Departing: LHP Cliff Lee, 3B Pedro Feliz, RHP Brett Myers, RHP Chan Ho Park
Arriving: RHP Roy Halladay, 3B Placido Polanco, C Brian Schneider, RHP Danys Baez
2010 outlook: If the Phillies can return to the Series, it will mark the first time since the 1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals that a club has brought home the NL pennant three consecutive seasons. There are solid reasons why Philadelphia has an excellent chance to do that, yet I just can't talk myself into such an occurrence.

This is roughly the same team that we saw in last October's Fall Classic. Yeah, I know, Halladay has assumed the role of staff ace, but is doing so in place of Cliff Lee who was nothing short of a staff ace once he arrived in the City of Brotherly Love. Still, Halladay can only pitch every fifth game, there is mystery surrounding Cole Hamels bouncing back, and closing games out is an even bigger mystery right now for Charlie Manuel with Brad Lidge coming back from some knee surgery and a bit of a flammable object in ninth innings in '09.

The offense is back intact with the exception of Polanco taking over at third. The lineup has finished first in the NL in scoring three of the past five seasons, taking second place the other two years. Outside long-term injuries to two or more of the sticks, there's no reason to suspect the Phils won't be among the top-3 National League clubs pushing runs plateward this season.

This is a club that could win 100 easily, but I'm still skeptical and believe that an even better NL East from a year ago will be part of the reason Philadelphia slides back in the win column this year.

My pick: 90 wins, 1st in NL East

Cincinnati Reds 45/1
2009 record/finish: 78-84, 4th in NL Central
Departing: OF Willy Taveras
Arriving: SS Orlando Cabrera
2010 outlook: Can someone explain to me why Orlando Cabrera can't find a home? The shortstop is with his sixth MLB club since 2003, and considering he spent three seasons in Anaheim, that's a lot of moving around for a guy that seems perfectly capable both defensively and offensively at one of the most demanding positions on the diamond.

The Reds disappointed me last year finishing about six games below where I thought they would in terms of wins. Perhaps I should never put too much stock in a Dusty Baker club. With so few roster changes from the team that ended the season in Cincinnati, I'm not going to boost the Porkopolis Nine too high at this point.

At the same time there's reason for optimism, as long as that optimism is to just finish third in the division. No, I don't think Scott Rolen is the answer at third and it's difficult just what we'll see out of starters Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, and Edinson Volquez not being around does put a ton of pressure on arms like Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto. But a pretty fair bullpen is back, and I like the offense.
My pick: 82 wins, 3rd-4th in NL Central

Toronto Blue Jays 100/1
2009 record/finish: 75-87, 4th in AL East
Departing: SS Marc Scutaro, RHP Roy Halladay, C Rod Barajas
Arriving: SS Alex Gonzalez, C John Buck
2010 outlook: So sad, how fast this team got out of the gate last season in baseball's toughest division only to fall apart, suffer the loss of its true ace this winter and enter the 2010 campaign with the very real chances of finishing dead last in the AL East, if not the entire AL.

The Blue Jays are such a difficult team to gauge at this point since there's just no telling what they might have with Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan. Marcum is on schedule to come out of the gate, but he's still no lock. McGowan is most likely out to start the season and who knows after that. Ricky Romero and Mark Rzepczynski are trailed in the rotation by the likes of David Purcey and Brett Cecil.

The offense quietly finished sixth in the AL in scoring in '09, with three big clubs in Adam Lind, Vernon Wells and Aaron Hill all back. But can they score enough to make up for the pitching? I don't think so.

My pick: 66 wins, 4th-5th in AL East

[FrozenMAN]

On this claim, we can both agree.

I'll take that bet.

what do ya wana bet?

.......thats a rather hefty claim that was made LOLOLOLOLOLOL, 25 pts a GENTLEMAN'S BET

[Willie Bee]

I'd feel bad taking points from you frozenman. So let's do it this way: I'll give you the 25 points right now, based on the assumption that you're right and, if nothing else, one ballsy sum'bitch. If at the end of the season the Marlins have two pitchers that total 40 wins between them, you keep the 25 points. If not, you return them to me and I'll put them towards a contest or charity

[FrozenMAN]

I'd feel bad taking points from you frozenman. So let's do it this way: I'll give you the 25 points right now, based on the assumption that you're right and, if nothing else, one ballsy sum'bitch. If at the end of the season the Marlins have two pitchers that total 40 wins between them, you keep the 25 points. If not, you return them to me and I'll put them towards a contest or charity

LOLOL can i just give em to ya now LOLOLOLO

no but really JJ can win 20+ this year esepcially with the new contract cause he'll wana prove any doubters though there shouldnt be any PLUS Ricky is 1000% capable to win 20 too, last year had like 16 and thats with almost a month in the minors and starting off an AWFUL 2-8 or somethign like that

Good luck willieB, i really need to get my preview written and uploaded now LOL

[Mini19]

might as well just end this thread early since everyone knows the PHILLSSS gonna win it all babyy

[FrozenMAN]

might as well just end this thread early since everyone knows the PHILLSSS gonna win it all babyy

[nbt3428]

FrozenMAN, what are your thoughts on Anibal Sanchez this year? Love the kid but keeps letting me down...

[TheLock]

Here's what Baseball Prospectus had to say about the 2010 Florida Marlins:

Florida Marlins

Projected record: 81-81

Why They Might Win: Because this is still a young team with plenty of players still on the upward trajectory of their career—and let's face it, the Marlins are pretty much always better than anybody thinks they will be.

Why They Might Not Win: They don't have a first baseman, unless prospect Logan Morrison can make a big move this spring, while Jorge Cantu and Emilio Bonifacio provide nearly equal weakness at the other corner. The potential roster is loaded with young arms that have yet to live up to their potential.

Player Who Could Surprise: Our new pitching metric, SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA), identifies righty Ricky Nolasco as one of the top sleepers in the game this season. On a purely elemental basis, he was much better than last year's 5.06 ERA, and PECOTA believes he'll be nearly as good as Marlins ace Josh Johnson in 2010.

Player Who Could Disappoint: PECOTA projects a major regression for 2009 NL Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan, with a batting line of .284/.369/.430—making him an average-at-best left fielder.

I LOL'd at Cantu and Bonifacio providing "equal weakness" at 3B. Cantu's OPS will be infinitely better than the useless Bonifacio so BP's assessment was way off on that one.

[Willie Bee]

Because this is still a young team with plenty of players still on the upward trajectory of their career—and let's face it, the Marlins are pretty much always better than anybody thinks they will be.

So true. If it wasn't for the fact that afterbirth Loria is at the top of the organization chart, I might be able to root for them at times.

[Shortstop]

FROZENMAN, WHO IS YOUR FAVORITE TEAM?

[Shortstop]

LET'S GO BUCS!

[FrozenMAN]

I LOL'd at Cantu and Bonifacio providing "equal weakness" at 3B. Cantu's OPS will be infinitely better than the useless Bonifacio so BP's assessment was way off on that one.

yeah that seems like retard wrote the article.....nolasco LOOKING for a breakout year lol, so he's never done good before, where were you his last half of seaosn was liek 8-1 lolo

the lock im gonna get my thread going next week, let's ****in OWN the MLB season this year. we both did pretty good but i can name atleast 3-5 times where you were diff with the fish game and popped, we can run this show dude

[FrozenMAN]

plus where is gaby sanchez vs logan thats one of the hottest position races in the MLB, both are STUDS TOO

[TheLock]

I actually think Gaby will be the weakest link throughout the year.

[OMGRandyJackson]

No surprises on the Nats lol.

[TheLock]

Nats will be better this year. Much.

[konck]

Wait 4 to 8 weeks before placing a future....Arot/Tex will be batting 230 takabathia will get hammered 4 of his forst 5 starts the yanks will be in 4th place then pound the Yankees to win the Div....It worked great for me last year this team rolls by the losers at the end of the season.

[konck]

I also will place my hex on the Mets by making a future bet to win the Div just in case they are close in Sept they can break my heart again

[konck]

Last year in june i won some tourny money from MLB contest and after the roll I placed most of the money on the Yanks to win the DIV at a price from +195 to +130

[Willie Bee]

Part 10 of 10

Masters of NL Central, Cards want more

St. Louis owned the division in the last decade and now wants to start the two-thousand-teens with an 18th National League pennant and 11th World Series title.

No better way to end this week than by ending this 10-part series. By this time next week I will have some more numbers to crunch based on the results of the season simulations that will be run this weekend, and once the spring training games begin in earnest, I will tweak some of the win projections to make hard calls on 'over/under' figures for the season.



There wasn't a real plan in place when I started this series as far as which teams would be looked at in what order. The three teams I'm left with – the Cardinals, Angels and Mariners – simply made it to the last part. St. Louis, I feel pretty good about right now; but the two squads from the AL West are anything but certainties.

No time like the present so let's dive into the final three squads and put this pre-preseason preview project to bed.

St. Louis Cardinals 13/1
2009 record/finish: 91 wins, 1st in NL Central
Departing: UTL Mark DeRosa, OF Rick Ankiel, RHP Joel Pineiro
Arriving: LHP Rich Hill, C Jason LaRue, RHP Brad Penny
2010 outlook: As long as Albert Pujols is in the lineup and Chris Carpenter stays healthy, there's no reason this team can't repeat in the division. There's also no reason to think that the Cubs are going to let the Cards have as easy a ride as they did a year ago.

Let's start with the biggest negative among the position players portion of the lineup, and that's the left side of the infield. St. Louis is completely unproven at third base, though the club has complete confidence in David Freese winning the job and having a fine season in the end. He shouldn't have a ton of competition in camp with the likes of Tyler Greene and possibly Joe Mather behind him. Brendan Ryan, the shortstop, had a decent season with a .292 average and 14 steals in less than 130 games. He could turn into something like a David Eckstein.

A negative on the mound is a lack of depth for the rotation. Don't get me wrong; Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are as fine a 1-2 punch as any rotation in the league. But Carpenter's health concerns means you have Kyle Lohse or Penny stepping up in the order if big Chris turns up lame. The battle for the fifth slot is between Hill, Mitchell Boggs and Jaime Garcia. Can Dave Duncan work his magic on someone like Hill? That's a big topic heading into camp.

Hey, Tony La Genius and his boys won six and tied for a seventh NL Central title in the two-thousand-ought's. I'll take them again.
My pick: 90 wins, 1st in NL Central

Los Angeles Angels 14/1
2009 record/finish: 97 wins, 1st in AL West
Departing: OF Vladimir Guerrero, 3B Chone Figgins, RHP John Lackey, RHP Kelvim Escobar, LHP Darren Oliver, OF Gary Matthews
Arriving: RHP Joel Pineiro, RHP Fernando Rodney, OF Hideki Matsui
2010 outlook: Lots of folks out there writing the Angels off this year. I don't mean like me, projecting them second in the division. I'm talking about folks who believe the bunch from Anaheim will fall to at least third in the division.

This is going to be a new team than what Mike Scioscia and Co. have been working with, starting with the absence of Vlad, Chone and Lackey. Still, this is going to be a team that will compete at the very least for it's sixth division title in seven seasons. And if the division is as improved as many think, the second-place team in the group could bump one of the big bullies from the AL East if things go right...or horribly wrong if you're a Yankees or Red Sox fan.

Swapping Vlad for Godzilla should be a wash on offense. The real keys will be Kendry Morales having a repeat season while Brandon Wood finally flexes his potential at third. There will be less speed, obviously, without Figgins. But the Halos have the potential to make up for that in the power department.

As big a Lackey fan as I am, the team already has a very strong replacement for him in place with Scott Kazmir coming over last September. Jered Weaver growing and Joe Saunders bouncing back are the real keys among the starters. As much hell as Brian Fuentes is catching for his roller-coaster season, he still saved a league-high 48.

My pick: 89 wins, 2nd in AL West



Seattle Mariners 18/1
2009 record/finish: 85-77, 3rd in AL West
Departing: 3B Adrian Beltre, RHP Brandon Morrow, 1B Russell Branyan
Arriving: 3B Chone Figgins, OF Milton Bradley, OF Eric Byrnes, LHP Cliff Lee, RHP Brandon League, 1B Casey Kotchman, 1B Ryan Garko
2010 outlook: The Mariners certainly could be a dangerous team, dangerous enough to win the division. But I'm not biting as hard partly because of how they burned me a couple of years ago. Off their solid 2007 season, a 10-game improvement in the win column from '06, I was high on Seattle to open the 2008 season. The Mariners promptly lost 101 games.

Now they've made an incredible leap of 24 more wins in '09 over that god-awful 2008 campaign, and all of the warning signs are there again for a belly-flop. No argument from me that the team is improved and a threat. I'm just not nibbling the bait...yet.

Felix Hernandez combines with Lee at the top of the rotation, and you're looking at what should easily be something like a 40-45 wins in their 31-32 starts each. Capable Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell follow, then a host of possibilities for the five-slot coming out of spring. Maybe Eric Bedard can return in July or August.

I'm intrigued by a lineup that will have Ichiro and Figgins firing things in motion. Maybe Bradley is the answer for some of the departed power, but I sure hate counting on him. And despite its 'no-name' status from last year, I'm also not completely comfortable with this bullpen. Pretend I'm from Missouri and show me.

My pick: 84 wins, 3rd in AL West

[nitty48]

Cardinals will win it all

[whatsgood5]

Lot's of great reads in this thread, getting me pumped for baseball season. Thanks for all the write-ups willie, you really know your shit

[FrozenMAN]

good write ups uncle willie, whats your thoughts on FISH O/U 81 games, i think that is pretty jokey and cant see em finishing under .500

[KENDRY]

My futures money is on the Angels to win it all.

[OMGRandyJackson]

I do not look forward what so ever to watching toronto play this year.

[KENDRY]

I do not look forward what so ever to watching toronto play this year.

They wont be that bad this year.

[pimike]

LET'S GO BUCS!

They will be the surprise team this year

[Willie Bee]

good write ups uncle willie, whats your thoughts on FISH O/U 81 games, i think that is pretty jokey and cant see em finishing under .500

I'd take Over 81 on any team in the NL East except the Nats.

...you really know your shit

Sometimes all I know is shit

[PittsburghPlayer]

Amen. Very nice write-up Killer Bee. Carry on.

[OMGRandyJackson]

They wont be that bad this year.

And they also won't be that good either lol.

But it just sucks seeing a few of my favs go like doc, barajas, and marko.