Monday's Front Page Picks (July 23)

Willie Bee · 07-23-07, 10:33 AM

Yankees with Clemens, Royals Under 10

Game Time: 07/23/2007 08:10 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Clemens continues to age like fine wine, with a 3.88 ERA in eight starts, and the Kansas City pitching has been better lately. Go Under this big total.

Roger Clemens may be just 2-4 since rejoining the New York Yankees, but he has obviously pitcher better than that with a 3.88 ERA, and we expect him to shut down the Kansas City Royals tonight. That said, we would never lay this chalk on the side, but Clemens should be able to keep this game Under this double-digit total.

In fact, the Under is 6-2 in all of the Rocket’s starts this season, not only because of his good pitching, but also because the Yankees for some reason have failed to hit for him, giving just 3.50 runs of support per start. Clemens has allowed exactly one run in three of his last four starts, and he has always dominated the Royals over the years.

Now Odalis Perez had slumped as of late, but the southpaw has had some big games this season and is always capable of throwing a gem. Besides, he has the support of a vastly improved Kansas City bullpen that has now moved into the top half of the league with a 3.82 pen ERA, ranking 14th out of 30 Major League teams.

Besides, another sharp outing by Clemens would give the Kansas City pitchers some leeway in allowing a few runs at this high posted total, and therein lies the key to the Under.

Free Pick: Yankees, Royals Under 10 (-110)

Willie Bee · 07-23-07, 10:34 AM

Tigers & Miller, White Sox & Buehrle Under 9

Game Time: 07/23/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Expect a pitcher’s duel when Miller and Buehrle square off in Chicago, as both pitchers are in peak form right now, and both have been Under-friendly lately.

Both of tonight's southpaw starters for the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox are currently in fine form, so this should be a pitcher's duel.

Miller has been excellent lately as he has a 2.12 ERA his last three starts. He has also been great on the road, recording a 2.45 ERA in four starts away from Comerica, with all four games playing Under the total. He will face a White Sox team which averages only four runs vs. left-handers while hitting for a mere .231 batting average.

Buehrle has been having a great season, and has a stellar 2.91 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 19 starts. Not surprisingly, the Under is a profitable 11-4-4 in those game. Buehrle has also been absolutely dominant of late with a 1.21 ERA his last three starts, with all of those staying easily below the total with scores of 3-1, 2-0 and 5-1 respectively.

Additionally, Buehrle has a stellar 2.89 ERA in 20 starts vs. the Tigers with the Under going a profitable 14-5-1. Look for a repeat performance tonight

Free Pick: Tigers, White Sox Under 9 (+100)

Willie Bee · 07-23-07, 10:35 AM

Rockies -134 to rock Maddux and Padres

Game Time: 07/23/2007 09:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The Rockies have been shut out the last two games, but they seemingly always score runs for Francis. Colorado is the play here having won 14 of 17 at home.

The Colorado Rockies must be saving all of their runs for left-handed starter Jeff Francis.

The Rockies were embarrassed in a four-game series in Washington against the Nationals in which they only won one game, and were shut out in the final two games by identical 3-0 scores. None of these games featured Francis, which is obviously a good thing for the Nationals. In his last three starts, Francis has an unsightly ERA of 7.41, but incredibly, the Rockies have won all three of these contests.

That means there must be some pretty amazing run support, and in the start before that, he put it all together and shut out Houston on the road over seven innings, only giving up three hits in the process. Colorado has now won nine of Francis's last 11 starts dating back to May 23.

The same cannot be said for Padres veteran and future Hall-of-Famer Greg Maddux, who has really struggled, especially on the road where his record is 2-3. His road ERA and WHIP are a very un-Maddux-like 4.74 and 1.46 respectively. Maddux may finally be nearing the end of the line, but with San Diego obviously in a pennant race and without that much depth in their starting rotation, they will certainly take advantage of his veteran presence. Pitching is not the problem for the Padres anyway; what they really need is to get their bats going.

Colorado is a sizzling 14-3 in their last 17 home games, so take the Rockies.

Free Pick: Rockies -134

Willie Bee · 07-23-07, 10:36 AM

Rangers -127 with Millwood to keep Mariners quiet

Game Time: 07/23/2007 08:35 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

Millwood is in raging form right now, and he is catching a Seattle lineup that has been shut out in back-to-back games. Play the pesky Rangers at home.

The surprising Seattle Mariners roll into the Lone Star State tonight to take on the hapless Texas Rangers.

The Mariners have been having a great year thus far and are in the hunt for the American League West title at 54-41 overall. They did have a tough weekend however, as they lost two of three to the Toronto Blue Jays where they were shut out twice. The Seattle offense has struggled recently, averaging only 3.4 runs per game and hitting an anemic .229 over their last seven ball games.

The Rangers, on the other hand, are in the midst of a horrible season that has them at the bottom of the AL West at 42-56 overall and 15½ games in back of the Angels. While Texas is all but out of it, they have shown some life when at home this season, scoring a respectable 5.0 runs per game on .265 hitting. They have been relatively successful scoring on the Mariners, averaging 6.0 runs per game in the four contests this season.

Today's contest is all about the pitching matchup. Seattle sends left-hander Haracio Ramirez to toe the rubber. Ramirez has been terrible on the road, where he is 0-2 with an out of sight 13.21 ERA. On the other hand, Texas sends veteran right-hander Kevin Millwood to the hill. Millwood has had horrible run support this season, as witnessed by his 1-1 mark over his last three starts despite a sparkling ERA of 1.42. Millwood has faced Seattle three times this season, with Texas winning two of them.

Seattle is 6-21, -14.6 units against the money line with an on base percentage of .260 or worse over their last three games over the last two seasons. The Mariners are also 11-26, -15.9 units after scoring two runs or less in two straight games over the last three seasons. Finally, the M’s are 23-35, -15.5 units against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last three years.

Seattle is struggling at the plate right now and will be facing a formidable pitcher in Millwood. Texas has enough scoring ability to get to Ramirez. I'm taking Texas in this one

Free Pick: Rangers -127

Willie Bee · 07-23-07, 10:37 AM

Back Harang & Reds vs Brewers

Game Time: 07/23/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

After starting the season 5-0 in his first seven starts, Milwaukee's Chris Capuano has been as strong a fade as you could have with the Brewers 0-10 in his starts since. Play the Reds.

Chris Capuano of the Brewers has been a sure-fire disaster waiting to happen of late when he takes to the hill as his team is 0-10 om his last 10 starts .The southpaw has also been his worst on the road, going just 2-4 while garnering a hefty 6 .44 ERA in seven starts.

His pitching opponent from the Reds, Adam Harang (10-2,3.63), has been the most consistent hurler in his team's rotation this season. Cincinnati has won eight of his nine starts against teams above .500 team like the Brewers . Play on the Reds to bring home the cash.

Free Pick: Reds -122

Willie Bee · 07-23-07, 10:40 AM

Tigers, White Sox to keep it Under 9 (+100)

Game Time: 07/23/2007 08:11 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Under has dominated the series between the Tigers and White Sox, and tonight should be no different with Buehrle and Miller both in fine form.

The Under is now 22-7 in the last 29 head-to-head meetings between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox, including 16-5 in the last 21 meetings here in Chicago.

We look for more of the same tonight given this pitching matchup. Mark Buehrle is pitching like a happy man that recently signed a long-term contract, as he has now incredibly allowed two earned runs or less in eight consecutive starts! Moreover, he went at least seven innings in all of those starts until lasting 6.1 innings last time out, which is important because it takes the horrendous White Sox bullpen out of the equation.

The Tigers counter with Andrew Miller, and the young southpaw is also pitching well, having allowed three earned runs or less in five of his last starts. Furthermore, Miller has done his best pitching on the road, where he owns a spiffy 2.12 ERA. This will also be the first time that the White Sox have ever faced him, which should be to Miller’s advantage.

Besides, Chicago is batting a dismal .231 vs. left-handed pitching at home for the season, so we look for both of these pitchers to match each other pitch for pitch.

Free Pick: Tigers, White Sox Under 9 (+100)

Willie Bee · 07-23-07, 10:41 AM

Marlins & Diamondbacks Over 9½

Game Time: 07/23/2007 09:40 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Florida's Dontrelle Willis and Arizona's Doug Davis, tonight's starting pitchers in the desert, have been good over bets recently. Play the Marlins and Diamondbacks to go over the total.

The Marlins have played the Over in four straight games. The Over is a profitable 11-3-1 in Florida's last 15 games as the underdog. The Over is 14-7 when Dontrelle Willis has been on the mound this season. In his last 11 road starts, the Over is a profitable 8-3.

The over is 9-2-2 in Arizona's last 13 home games and 6-0-1 in their last seven home games vs. teams with losing records. The Over is also 7-2-3 in their last 12 games as the favorite. Doug Davis has three career starts vs. the Marlins and two have played over the total. The Over is 21-5 in the last 26 meetings between the clubs in Arizona. Play the Over.

Free Pick: Marlins-Diamondbacks Over 9½