Monday Plays

[strictlywinners]

I will update what i was down this week as soon as the night games finish. For next week gonna be doin things a little differently. I will be taking both the runline and moneyline on all of my games.

Moneyline Runline
Redsox 2 +118 not available
Twins 12 -150
Brewers 2 +105
Astros 4 +100
Tigers 12 -105
Yanks 10 -175
Pads 10 +120
Marlins 12 +115
Braves 16 -115
Angels 4 -136

all of my runline plays will be for the exact same amount as my moneyline plays as soon as i have the lines for the runlines i will post them. Eventually probably gonna combine moneyline and runline systems. So on big favorites such as the padres yanks and boston today i will take the runlline so i do not get killed with the expensive price of those lines.

[rjt721]

I will be taking both the runline and moneyline on all of my games.

I don't think I can envision a worse strategy. Why not just flush your money down the toilet?

[curious]

Well, all I can say about using Runlines that way is that I have a program that shows me the bookmakers VIG on each game using the lines at most of the major bookmakers.

The VIG on ML ranges between 1 and 2% most of the time.

The VIG on RL ranges between 3 and 6% most of the time.

Why would you blindly bet on games at that kind of VIG?? Doesn't make sense to me.

I use Runlines in crazy parlays for fun or if I really think that the favorite is just bet totally wrong. But to bet them blindly?

[EaglesPhan36]

So next week should be your last with Internet service then?

[strictlywinners]

its a possibility.

[WestsidePete]

just wanted to add that curious..you rock man...followed a 3 dog parlay on sat similiar to one you did on fri....and won ...one 220 bet won me 330 in profit... and my 3rd team even loss. Here's what I did, I took AZ SF in the early games and they won...had CINN in the later game. took all 3 straight up to win $40 on each, all 3 to win in a $20 parlay, and $20 each on three 2 team parlays . Since the 2 early games came thru, I knew that if CINN won I'd win 700, but if they lost I'd win only 100...so I decided to put some money straight on FLA, which changed what I'd win to 370 if CINN won, and 330 if FLA won. Either way, I was going to be a solid winner on this since the 2 early dogs came thru. FLA won, but I was still a solid winner. Just wanted to share this with all of you.

[strictlywinners]

[B]runline odds[B] i know many at the forum are against this but for today i am taking all of my plays strait up and on the runline for same units.
boston +1.5 -165
twins -1.5 +105
breweres +1.5 -200
Astros +1.5 -165
tigers -1.5 +150
yankees -1.5 -115
pads +1.5 -165
marlins +1.5 - 190
angels -1.5 +160
braves-1.5 +145

[strictlywinners]

all runline plays will be for same amount as moneyline plays

[strictlywinners]

Update on moneyline and runlline plays
moneyline
redsox 2 win 2.3
twins 12 lose 18
brewers 2 lose 2
astros 4 lose 4
tigers 12 win 12
yanks 10 win 10
pads 10 lose 10 heart breaker
marlins 12 lose 12
braves 16 win 16
angels 4 lose 5.4
total moneyline figure for day
-11.1

runline
redsox 2 win 2
twins 12 lose 12
brewers 2 win 2
astros 4 lose 6.6
tigers 12 win 18
yanks 10 win 10
pads 10 lose 16.5 double heartbreaker
marlins 12 win 12
braves 16 win 23.2
total runline figure for day
+32.1

Up 22 units on the day Down 80 coming into the week.
GRANDTOTAL DOWN 58 units since i started posting. Tommorrows games are looking good allot of dawgs

[joesomebody114]

curious really should be a handicapper

[Savant]

at least you are up ++ today strictly..congratz.

[strictlywinners]

Thank you should have been bigger day the pads really screwed me. Soon i will stop with the craziness taking both runlines and moneylines. Looking to combine them but have to figure out which games to go runline and which to go moneyline. I tell you one thing i will never take a minus 200 favorite moneyline again thats how i gave back all of my winnings last week

[Savant]

yeap anything -200, its better to dabble with runlines.
Wish you all the best today strictly.

[LT Profits]

strictly,

I am not a fan of runlines, and I NEVER bet them with the home team. May I make 3 suggestions:

1 - Instead of betting RL for same unit as ML, bet RL for 1/2, in effect making your wager 2/3 ML and 1/3 RL

2 - Bet ML only with home teams.

3 - If you like road underdog, bet ALTERNATE RL (-1.5) instead of conventional +1.5 RL. In other words, with road teams only, always bet -1.5 and never +1.5.

Remember you should be thinking long-term, so with #3, sure there will be occassions where the +1.5 would have offset ML loss. However, one run losses don't happen often enough to offset the fact that you are actually laying often high juice with a ML underdog at +1.5. On the flip side, the nice payoffs on the -1.5 alt RL (often better than +200) usually offsets the occassional one-run underdog wins, and even when those do happen, you still profit on the games with 2/3 unit on ML.

[LT Profits]

Oh I forgot. If your system says to bet on home team -200 or better, simply PASS on the game. Personally I rarely lay more than -125, but that's just me.

[curious]

curious really should be a handicapper

I just get lucky. What I do is pretty simple. I look at each team's average runs scored per game for the last 10 games, then I look at their bullpen, the last ten games.

Then I look at the opposing team's lineup vs that type of pitcher last 10 days.

Then I look at injuries. That was how I beat the Padres the other night, they had a good starting pitcher, but he was having problems with his arm. Phillies blew him out.

I like betting big dogs, but only if I have a reason.

I don't mind betting chalk if the list of criteria above looks good.

For the over and under bet I just add the average number of runs scored over the last 10 days for each team together, then I use a factor for the starting pitching and the bullpen of the two teams. Doesn't always work, but works more often than not.

I use the Runline if I think the game is going to be a blowout.

I use parlays extensively for both hedging and to add profit.

I really want to discourage people from making a bet just because I did. I just started betting on baseball at the end of June and really don't know that much about it. I use a hedging strategy that might not be suitable for everyone, and I don't always post the hedge bets, or the parlays I post are hedges against other bets. PLEASE do not follow my bets blindly.

[strictlywinners]

Thank you LT i will consider that but for next week for the rest of this week im goin with both though