Saturday's Front Page Picks (July 21)

Willie Bee · 07-21-07, 09:52 AM

Orioles, Athletics Under 8½ as Haren regains form

Game Time: 07/21/2007 09:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Haren is a leading Cy Young candidate that has already dominated the Orioles twice. At the same time Oakland’s offense is pathetic, making Under the play.

American League Cy Young candidate Danny Haren of the Oakland Athletics has not been himself in his last two starts, but he should get well quickly tonight vs. the Baltimore Orioles.

Haren has already dominated the Orioles twice this season, allowing exactly one run in seven innings in each of his two starts against them. Haren is 6-1 at home this season with a 2.30 ERA and a miniscule 0.98 WHIP, with the Under going 6-3 in his home starts. We are looking at the Under again here today, as the Athletics are not hitting enough to lay this kind of wood on the side, even with Haren on the bump.

Granted Steve Trachsel is no great shakes for the Orioles, but he would not have to be if Baltmore fails to score more than two runs, which is entirely possible tonight. Trachsel will be helped by the fact that the A’s are hitting a woeful .170 as a team while averaging a hideous 2.60 runs per game over their last 10 games.

In fact, Oakland is batting just .233 here at home for the entire season, with the Under going a lucrative 31-14-5, and we look for more of the same tonight.

Free Pick: Orioles, Athletics Under 8½ (-115)

Willie Bee · 07-21-07, 09:54 AM

Haren and A's the play over Orioles

Game Time: 07/21/2007 09:05 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

This one has some heavy chalk, and for good reason as Dan Haren gives Oakland a huge advantage on the mound over Baltimore's Steve Trachsel. Play the A's over the O's tonight.

The A's lost yesterday's opener but they should have a major advantage on the mound this evening. Dan Haren is 6-1 (Oakland is 8-2) in 10 home starts with a simply stellar 2.30 ERA and 0.981 WHIP.

Steve Trachsel, on the other hand, is 2-6 (Baltimore is 2-8) with an ugly 5.87 ERA and 1.639 WHIP in 10 road starts. He's been brutal lately, regardless of where he has pitched. In fact, Trachsel is 0-2 (team is 0-3) with an atrocious 13.06 ERA and 2.805 WHIP over his last three starts!

Haren has already beaten the Orioles twice this season. Look for Haren and the A's to "get healthy" tonight as they drop their guests to 0-4 when listed as road underdogs in the +175 to +200 range. Consider laying the price with Oakland.

Free Pick: Athletics -215

Willie Bee · 07-21-07, 09:55 AM

Bet the Brewers to beat Bonds, SF

Game Time: 07/21/2007 03:55 PM -
By: Al McMordie | sportspic.com

The cameras will all be on the Giants' Barry Bonds this weekend in Milwaukee. But the Brewers are focused more on winning than the home run circus and the Barry & Bud Soap Opera.

Our Saturday MLB selection is on the Brewers over the San Francisco Giants at Miller Park in Milwaukee.

Giants outfielder Barry Bonds is now only two home runs shy of Hank Aaron's career record of 755 and he may tie or even break the record at this series in Milwaukee, which would be ironic since Milwaukee is where Aaron used to play his games before the Braves moved to Atlanta. But Milwaukee has other things to think about this weekend, like holding on to their lead in the NL Central division and getting home field advantage in the playoffs so they will have a good shot at winning their first league title since 1982. And this should be a great opportunity for Milwaukee to pad that lead as they have dominated the Giants at home recently, as prior to Friday's San Francisco victory, the Brewers had taken seven straight games vs. the Giants at Miller Park and 10 of the last 11.

Two right-handers go against each other in this one as Giants rookie Tim Lincecum will face off against the Brewers' Dave Bush. Lincecum is hoping that this trip to the beer capital of the U.S. turns out better than his last one, having been shelled against the Brewers on June 19 in Milwaukee when he gave up six earned runs in only four innings on that day. Lincecum also has to worry about the fact that this is a day game as he is 1-1 with a 7.48 ERA in afternoon starts.

The circus-like atmosphere that is sure to be surrounding Miller Park this weekend as Bonds goes for the title is likely to adversely effect the Giants more than the Brewers. Take Milwaukee.

Free Pick: Brewers -138

Willie Bee · 07-21-07, 09:57 AM

Play Astros -111 to outduel the Pirates again

Game Time: 07/21/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Dave Price | procappers.com

Wandy Rodriguez of the Astros has dominated light-hitting teams, going 11-3 vs. such clubs. With Pittsburgh struggling to score, Rodriquez should prevail.

The Houston Astros took the first game of this series with the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1 on Friday, and look for a repeat performance tonight.

Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez is 11-3 against National League teams scoring 4.3 runs per game or less on the season over the last two years. Meanwhile, the Pirates are just 7-20 against a starting pitcher with good control, having less than 1.75 walks per start, this season. Pittsburgh is also a pathetic 62-114 against NL starting pitchers with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70 since 1997.

Both teams are struggling right now, but the Astros get the edge Rodriguez on the hill.

Free Pick: Astros -111

Willie Bee · 07-21-07, 09:58 AM

Back Brewers -136 over Bonds and Giants

Game Time: 07/21/2007 03:55 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

The Giants may have taken the series opener here last night, but the Brewers still have the much better recent form. Look for some Milwaukee payback.

The Milwaukee Brewers continue to run hot, having won five of their last seven games, and have owned this San Francisco Giants team winning seven of the last eight games in this series.

The Giants are in bad current form, having lost seven of their last nine overall, and they are batting just .228 as a team in their last 10 contests, making its an easy decision to fade them again, even with the promising Lincecum on the mound.

Finally, the Brewers are 17-3 at home this season vs. National League teams like the Giants that have a team batting average of.250 or less on the season, so play Milwaukee

Free Pick: Brewers -136

Willie Bee · 07-21-07, 09:59 AM

Pirates the play over Astros

Game Time: 07/21/2007 07:15 PM -
By: Larry Cook | procappers.com

The Astros eked one out last night behind their ace Roy Oswalt. It will be a different story this afternoon when Wandy Rodriguez hurls for Houston. Play the Pirates at home today.

Pittsburgh is 12-5 against the moneyline after having lost six or seven of their last eight games this season.

Astros starting left-hander Wandy Rodriguez is 4-13 against the moneyline against division opponents over the last two seasons. The Astros are just 11-20 against the moneyline on the road with a moneyline of -100 to -125 over the last two seasons. We'll side with Pittsburgh at home today.

Free Pick: Pirates +103

Willie Bee · 07-21-07, 10:00 AM

Towers & Jays to sink Mariners

Game Time: 07/21/2007 01:07 PM -
By: John Martin | procappers.com

All of the trends point away from Jeff Weaver and the Mariners in this one. Make your play on the Blue Jays at home in Toronto when Josh Towers takes the hill against Seattle.

Seattle is just 6-21 against the moneyline when playing against a marginal losing team with a winning percentage from .460 to .490 in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.

Mariners starter Jeff Weaver is 0-4 on the road this season with an ERA of 7.92. Over his last two appearances at the Blue Jays' glass house, Weaver has tossed 7.1 innings, allowed eight earned runs and surrendered three long balls. With the success Toronto has had at home against the Mariners the last three seasons, we won't hesitate to pull the trigger on them today.

Free Pick: Blue Jays -113

Willie Bee · 07-21-07, 10:01 AM

All is Wells with the Padres tonight

Game Time: 07/21/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Jeff Alexander | procappers.com

Southpaw David Wells has been in a groove lately with San Diego 4-0 in his last four starts. Play the Padres as home favorites tonight when they entertain the Phillies at Petco.

The Phillies are just 9-25 against the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher this season and 2-8 against the moneyline with an on-base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games this season.

Padres lefty David Wells has been on fire winning each of his last three starts against the moneyline with an ERA of just 2.30. San Diego is 4-0 in Wells' last four starts, out-scoring their opponents by 2½ runs per game in that span. Take the Padres.

Free Pick: Padres -122

Willie Bee · 07-21-07, 10:03 AM

Play A's & O's Under 8½

Game Time: 07/21/2007 09:05 PM -
By: Greg Daraban | playbook.com

Neither of these teams is a threat to put a bunch of runs on the scoreboard this evening. Play the Under tonight when the Oakland Athletics host the Baltimore Orioles.

Second game of an AL East vs AL West series as Baltimore takes on Oakland. Both teams are not playing in 2007 liked they had hoped with the O's making their final trip out on the West Coast for the year.

The A's have not hit the ball well recently and have lost nine of 10. They have scored just 22 runs in their last seven games since the All-Star Game. Danny Haren will go to the rubber, and the AL All-Star starter is 10-3 with a 2.33 ERA for Oakland.

Birds hurler Steve Trachsel is 5-6 with a 4.95 ERA, that will be enough along with Haren to keep this one a low scoring game. Take Baltimore and Oakland on the Under.

Free Pick: Orioles-Athletics Under 8½

Willie Bee · 07-21-07, 10:05 AM

Light-hitting Rockies, Nationals Under 9

Game Time: 07/21/2007 03:55 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Rockies and Nationals went Under last night, and with both offenses scuffling the last 10 games and both pitchers having some success, go Under again.

Neither the Colorado Rockies nor the Washington Nationals have hit the ball well lately, and we expect another low-scoring affair today.

The Rockies took the season opener 3-1 here yesterday, and they are now batting a modest .249 as a team over the last 10 games with the Under going 5-3-2 in those games. In fact, they have struggled offensively all year away from the altitude of Coors Fied, batting just .255 on the road overall.

The Nationals have really struggled with right-handers lately, batting just .233 against them in the last 10 games with the Under going 5-2-3. Games in this spacious stadium have been particularly low scoring, as the Under is now 7-1-3 in the last 11 Washington home contests.

Colorado starter Rodrigo Lopez allowed one run in seven innings the last time he faced the Nationals, while Washington starter Mike Bacsik allowed exactly one earned run in two of his last three starts, so look for another Under.

Free Pick: Rockies, Nationals Under 9 (-115)

Willie Bee · 07-21-07, 10:06 AM

Marlins -130 with Kim to swim past Reds

Game Time: 07/21/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Bill Young | touthouse.com

The Marlins cooled off the red-hot Reds last night, and they now fall into a technical system that is 74 percent the last five years, so go Florida.

The Florida Marlins cooled off the Cincinnati Reds last night, and they should continue to silence the Reds bats tonight.

Kim gets the start for the Marlins, which nicely fits them in a system that says to play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.55 to 1.65 on the season in National League games in July. This system is 34-12, 73.9 percent the last five seasons.

Also, the Reds are just 3-13 against starting pitchers with poor control, issuing more than 2.75 walks per start, over the last two seasons. Watch these unique systems work like a charm, as the Marlins win this one.

Free Pick: Marlins -130

Willie Bee · 07-21-07, 10:08 AM

Take Indians -134 to scalp Rangers

Game Time: 07/21/2007 08:35 PM -
By: Jimmy Boyd | procappers.com

The Indians have done well in the head-to-head series with Texas, and the Tribe have swept all four meetings this season. Make it five after tonight.

The Cleveland Indians simply own the Texas Rangers, and that dominance should continue Saturday night.

The Indians have won all four meetings against them Texas this season. Furthermore, the Rangers are just 6-24 against teams like the Indians, who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game, in the second half of the season over the last three years.

Texas is losing these games by over two runs per game, so take the Indians again tonight.

Free Pick: Indians -134

Willie Bee · 07-21-07, 10:09 AM

Make play on Milwaukee vs San Fran

Game Time: 07/21/2007 03:55 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

While San Francisco is more concerned with Barry Bonds' chase of Henry Aaron's home run record, Milwaukee is worried about winning. Back the Brewers at home today vs the Giants.

The Giants have lost seven of their last 10 games. In their last 27 games as the underdog the Giants are 8-19. In their last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning record San Francisco is a horrible 6-17. The Giants are 1-4 in rookie Tim Lincecum's last five road starts.

Milwaukee has won their last five games vs. right-handed starters. Right-hander Dave Bush is on the mound this afternoon and the Brewers are 5-1 in his last six starts. In his last four starts as the favorite Milwaukee is a perfect 4-0.

The Giants are 1-7 in the last eight meetings between the teams and 2-10 in their last 12 visits to Milwaukee. Play on the Brewers.

Free Pick: Brewers -138