Friday's Front Page Plays (July 20)

Willie Bee · 07-20-07, 10:39 AM

Pirates with Gorzelanny +100 over Oswalt & Astros

Game Time: 07/20/2007 07:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Pirates are a very attractive home underdog tonight, as Gorzelanny has better numbers than the disappointing Oswalt this season, so back the Bucs.

Who would have imagined before this season started that +100 would be considered a good price for Tom Gorzelanny and the Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Roy Oswalt and the Houston Astros?

Well, we do indeed feel that this is a nice price for the Pirates at home. Gorzelanny actually has the better overall number across the board this season, as he is 9-4 while pitching for a team that is 14 games under .500, with a nice 3.24 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Comparatively, Oswalt is 8-6 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. The difference between these starting pitchers becomes even more severe when you look at their home/away splits.

Gorzelanny is 4-2 with a 3.10 ERA and a brilliant 1.15 WHIP here in PNC Park. He has also posted three Quality Starts in four outings vs. the Astros during his brief two-year career. Conversely, Oswalt has been downright abysmal on the road, where he is 2-5 with a whopping 6.48 ERA and a horrendous 1.76 WHIP!

All things considered, the wrong team may be favored here, so back the Pirates as home underdogs.

Free Pick: Pirates +100

Willie Bee · 07-20-07, 10:40 AM

Giants, Brewers to climb Over 9

Game Time: 07/20/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Both Noah Lowry and Jeff Suppan have struggled vs. their respective opponents tonight, so the scoreboard operator should be kept busy in this easy Over.

Left-hander Noah Lowry gets the start for the San Francisco Giants tonight, and he has had more difficulties with this Milwaukee Brewers team than with any National League club.

Lowry is 0-2 in three career starts vs. the Brewers with a 7.88 ERA. He is also in questionable current form, as he gave up a season-high 10 hits in his last start, a 5-3 loss vs. the Dodgers on Sunday.

Lowry will be facing World Series hero Jeff Suppan, who similarly struggles against San Francisco, with a 4.95 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Giants. With neither pitcher particularly thrilled about facing tonight’s opponent, take the Over.

Free Pick: Giants, Brewers Over 9 (-110)

Willie Bee · 07-20-07, 10:41 AM

Make Mets your play vs Dodgers

Game Time: 07/20/2007 10:40 PM -
By: Larry Cook | procappers.com

Left-hander Oliver Perez is one of the most-improved pitchers in the majors this year. Back the Mets in Los Angeles this evening when they take on Brett Tomko and the Dodgers.

Oliver Perez has been stellar for the Mets this year with an 8-6 record and just a 3.13 ERA. Brett Tomko is going in the opposite direction for the Dodgers.

Tomko is 1-2 in his last three starts including a 9.95 ERA during this span. The Dodgers are 0-5 in Tomko's last five starts with the total set at 7-8½, and 1-6 in Tomko's last seven starts during Game 2 of a series. Tomko won’t be able to handle a dangerous Mets lineup tonight. Bet New York.

Free Pick: Mets -111

Willie Bee · 07-20-07, 10:42 AM

+105 to stay hot and tangle up Webb

Game Time: 07/20/2007 02:20 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

The Cubs are the hottest team in baseball, and it is hard to fade them even vs. Brandon Webb. Grab Chicago as a home dog with Jason Marquis on the hill.

Now granted, Brandon Webb is 4-0 in his career with a 2.52 ERA vs. the Chicago Cubs, and the Diamondbacks have had relative success vs. the Cubs the last three seasons, going 9-4 overall and 5-3 at Wrigley Field.

That being said, there is no way in heck I or any of you should think about going against the Cubs at this point in time! They are clearly not fade material after picking up their 18th victory in 23 tries yesterday afternoon against the San Francisco Giants, and the "baseball magic" that's occurring at Clark and Addison right now is a formidable force unlike any seen.

"Sweet Lou" has got this club playing exceptional ball right now, so why fade them? Never play against a streak, and always bet on black, right? Well in this case, bet on blue. I'm fully aware of the injuries and suspensions that make the line-up much less formidable, but it doesn't matter, this club is running like a finely tuned machine, and the other parts filling in are all contributing when being called upon.

Arizona just got their brains beaten in by Milwaukee the last four days. The Cubs have been playing even better than them at this point in time, and the Diamondbacks are going to be lucky to get out of Chicago with a win. Do not let Jason Marquis' recent performance scare you away here. He is 1-3 overall vs. Arizona in his career, but his ERA is a very respectable 2.81 in his six career starts. The D-Backs’ bats are simply woeful overall as they struggle mightily to score; especially on the road. Marquis should be able to tame them as well in this spot, and then turn it over to the pen with a chance to close it out.

Now is not the time to fade the Cubbies, so grab them at plus money and watch how they manage to rattle off yet another victory and keep the pressure on Milwaukee.

Free Pick: Cubs +105

Willie Bee · 07-20-07, 10:44 AM

Angels, listing Lackey, over Twins

Game Time: 07/20/2007 08:10 PM -
By: John Martin | touthouse.com

At this price, taking John Lackey and the Angels is a no-brainer. Put it down on the Halos this evening when they travel to Minnesota to open a three-game set with the Twins.

John Lackey has been a stud all season for the Angels. Lackey is 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA on the year. Carlos Silva has not been successful at all for the Twins with a 7-10 record on the season. He gets knocked around nearly every time he takes the ball.

The Angels are 11-4 in their last 15 meetings with the Twins. The Angels are 8-0 in Lackey's last eight road starts. The Twins are 1-7 in Silva's last eight starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Twins are 4-10 in Silva's last 14 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Cash in with the Angels Friday.

Free Pick: Angels -129

Willie Bee · 07-20-07, 10:46 AM

Dog the Dodgers vs Mets

Game Time: 07/20/2007 10:40 PM -
By: Dave Price | touthouse.com

New York southpaw Oliver Perez has had a good season so far, but he has struggled against NL West squads. Back the Dodgers at home in Los Angeles when they entertain the Mets.

New York lefty Oliver Perez is just 1-8 against the moneyline against NL West opponents over the last two seasons.

The Dodgers are 29-12 against the moneyline when playing on Friday over the last two seasons. Rarely are you able to get Los Anegels as a home underdog. These boys are swinging hot bats right now and they lunch on lefties. Take the LA Dodgers at home showing great value.

Free Pick: Dodgers +103

Willie Bee · 07-20-07, 10:47 AM

Mariners +100 to sail over Blue Jays

Game Time: 07/20/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

The Mariners are the biggest surprise in baseball, while the Blue Jays are in a letdown spot after a huge series with the Yankees. Take Seattle on the road.

After a day off and taking two of three from the Baltimore Orioles, the surprising Seattle Mariners roll into Canada to take on the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. The Mariners are in the midst of a fine season, as they come in at 53-39 overall and trail the front-running Angels by only two games.

The Mariners send right-hander Miguel Batista to the mound to start this series, and he has pitched well over his last three starts going 2-1 with a low 2.25 ERA. In his career against the Blue Jays, Batista is 2-1 with a microscopic 0.87 ERA, which should spell trouble for Toronto, as they have been having problems with right-handers this season going only 28-38.

Toronto comes in off a huge series against the Yankees where they were hoping to leap over the Bombers into second place in the American League East. Unfortunately, although the Blue Jays won on Thursday, they Yankees took three of the four games, leaving the Jays at 46-49, good for third place and 10½ games off the pace.

Toronto starts a right-hander of their own in Jesse Litsch, who will be making his seventh start of the season and is 2-3 with a 4.02 ERA. Litsch has not been that effective at home, going only 1-1 with a rather high 5.78 ERA.

Seattle is 16-7, +10.2 units with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.25 the last 15 games this season, as well as 17-8, +12.1 units against AL East opponents. Batista is 16-8, +13.5 Units in road games over the last two seasons.

The Mariners swept the Blue Jays in Seattle back in June and things shape up even better this time around as the Jays will not see a left-hander all weekend. This is a great price for a team that has everything in its favor, so take the Mariners in this one

Free Pick: Mariners +100

Willie Bee · 07-20-07, 10:48 AM

Diamondbacks -115 with Webb to cool off Cubs

Game Time: 07/20/2007 02:20 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Cubs are on fire, but Brandon Webb is undefeated against them with a 2.52 ERA in his career, and he has done his best pitching on the road this season.

Yes, the Chicago Cubs are the hottest team in the world right now, but we feel they will lose some momentum today vs. Brandon Webb of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Webb may not be duplicating his Cy Young season of last year, but he has done his best pitching on the road, where he owns a 3.16 ERA with an outstanding 1.14 WHIP. More importantly, the Cubs have never been able to lift his heavy sinker, as Webb has a 2.52 ERA in six career starts against them.

Meanwhile, Jason Marquis has been the weakest link in the Cubs rotation during this hot streak. Marquis has a dreadful 7.47 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over his last three starts, and he was bombed by the Houston Astros and Pittsburgh Pirates in his last two outings, not exactly a couple of juggernaut offenses.

Finally, the Diamondbacks have the superior bullpen here, as they rank fifth in the National League with a 3.61 pen ERA. Look for the Snakes to cool off the Cubs here, at least for one day.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks -115

Willie Bee · 07-20-07, 10:49 AM

Take Tigers, Rogers to rip Royals

Game Time: 07/20/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Jeff Alexander | touthouse.com

Despite coming off a rough start in his last outing, Detroit's Kenny Rogers is the man tonight on the Motown mound. Take the Tigers as big favorites when they host the KC Royals.

Detroit southpaw Kenny Rogers is 31-7 against the moneyline in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) since 1997.

The Royals are just 10-33 against the moneyline vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less home runs per start over the last two seasons. Rogers is 22-5 against the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons and 25-3 against the moneyline when the total is 9 to 9½ over the last two seasons. Take the Tigers with Rogers on the hill.

Free Pick: Tigers -172

Willie Bee · 07-20-07, 10:50 AM

Back Reds to stay red hot

Game Time: 07/20/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Tom Freese | sportspic.com

The Reds are hot with nine wins in their last 12 games, and starter Kyle Lohse has been pitching well. Side with Cincinnati this evening when they continue their series in Florida.

Cincinnati starter Kyle Lohse has allowed seven runs total in his last three starts. The Reds are hot winning nine of their last 12 games.

Florida starter Scott Olsen is off a phony win in his last start where he allowed twice as many baserunners as innings pitched. The Marlins are 9-19 at home at night vs. righties this year. Play on Cincinnati (Lohse vs. Olsen).

Free Pick: Reds +126

Willie Bee · 07-20-07, 10:52 AM

Play Cubs as pups vs Snakes

Game Time: 07/20/2007 02:20 PM -
By: Brad Diamond | playbook.com

As the old saying goes, "Don't argue with success." And right now the Cubs are very successful. Play Chicago as home pups in Wrigley this afternoon against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Although the Snakes have dominated this series winning nine of 12 and going 4-0 behind right-hander Brandon Webb, I still like our chances with the Cubs with Jason Marquis on the hill in this daytime beauty.

Behind Marquis, the Cubs have won four straight at Wrigley and come with a perfect 5-0 record at home versus a winning club. In addition, the Cubbies have been on fire since Lou Piniella went off last month as documented by their 18-5 overall run.

Free Pick: Cubs +105

Willie Bee · 07-20-07, 10:53 AM

Yanks & D-Rays Under 10½

Game Time: 07/20/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Bill Young | procappers.com

The Yankees may score often this evening at home in the Bronx, but New York starter Mike Mussina will snuff the Devil Rays' bats. Bet the Under (10½) at The Stadium tonight.

The Under is 9-4 in Mike Mussina’s last 13 starts and this total is set far too high today. Mussina won’t have any problems shutting down Tampa Bay.

The Yankees may put up a decent run total, but not enough to outweigh the damage Mussina should do. The Under is 5-0 in Mussina's last five starts as a home favorite. The Under is 16-5-2 in Mussina's last 23 starts as a favorite. The Under is 4-1 in Yankees last five home games.

This one easily stays under the total. Take the Under.

Free Pick: Devil Rays-Yankees Under 10½

Willie Bee · 07-20-07, 10:54 AM

Play the Pirates vs struggling Astros

Game Time: 07/20/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Astros are horrible on the road and the Pirates have had their number this year. Fade Houston and Roy Oswalt tonight when they open a three-game set at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.

Both teams are struggling right now having lost seven of their last 10 games. The Astros are 17-35 in their last 52 road games. Houston has lost four of their last five starts vs. left-handed starters. The Astros have lost 12 of their last 14 games vs. NL Central teams. Houston has lost Roy Oswalt's last five road starts.

The Pirates have won five of their last six vs. NL Central teams. Piitsburgh is 6-2 in their last eight games following an off day. The Pirates are 4-1 in Game 1 of a series when Tom Gorzelanny pitches. Houston has lost the last six meetings with Pittsburgh. Play on the Pirates.

Free Pick: Pirates +103