No Rainouts Here

[TodaysAction]

going well mate.

appreciate your efforts in getting the picks out. ESPECIALLY, when you get them out nice and early. the time diff between me and you guys is 12 hours, which means I'm usually asleep for the early games or need to wake up to check the picks... hence why i really appreciate not having to do that (although i woke up last night to get some other plays anyway!)

Sorry can't get them out out early tonight but have an idea of some of them but first need to watch the games and then run the numbers.

Everything should be sent your way Friday for evaluation

Wow! Talk about lightning speed. Looking forward to it.

Lol. Looking forward to those August adjustments as well

Sounds like your area is just like mine. Nice now though...drier air at least, and we have some new scenic lakes. Ball was able to fly through the air with 10% less friction tonight for the Cardinal's ball. Too bad that guy didn't get the memo.

Long as I take my time with them and don't put them in, in the wrong order, the results will speak for themself.

To much rain and strong winds lately. Add a tree that should have been removed/moved years ago when it was smaller and you can see why there's the problem.

Good observation. In a related matter to that thread, neither is easier. Let's cash nicely Monday.

[jpot34]

Great job, TA!!!!!

[lovetobet]

Awesome TA, keep it up

[JR007]

Good Morning Gentlemen.....good luck with the house TA.....

[JR007]

Pirates and Snakes lost 4 in a row...Phils and Giants have won 4 in a row

[JR007]

Colo Lost last 5

[JR007]

"Hernandez has a 2.95 ERA on the highway and he’s coming off a dominating performance against these White Sox on Tuesday when he blanked them on two hits over eight innings of a 2-1 win, striking out eight and walking none. In fact, he hasn’t allowed a run to the White Sox in two years, covering three starts and 23 innings. Last year he went into Chicago and pitched eight scoreless innings in a 9-1 win, striking out nine and walking one.

John Danks is on the mound for the White Sox tonight and he had a dominating show a week ago against the Mariners, pitching 7.2 innings of shutout baseball in a 4-0 win. Chicago is just 3-5 in his eight career outings against Seattle.

The Mariners are 37-16 when Hernandez faces a winning team, and 18-8 when he starts on the road against a winning club.

Chicago just has no answers for Hernandez and he’ll throw another dominating performance at them tonight. It’ll be a low-scoring game,"

[JR007]

WHAT ARE THE BEST WAYS TO HANDICAP 1.5 RUN LINES IN MLB?
"I see a lot of wagerers making mistakes with how they handicap run lines in major league baseball. Sportsbooks added this proposition to the regular money lines a few years ago to try to inspire more action in major league baseball. It's done that a little bit. Unfortunately for the public, it did that in a way that caused casual wagerers to lose.
As I've mentioned a zillion times in these articles, there's a "sharp" way to bet sports in Las Vegas (the methods used by professional wagerers), and there's a "square" way to bet sports (the way the public usually does it). Before saying anything, I want you to think about the best strategy for using 1.5 run lines. Whatever first pops into your mind will help tell you whether you're a square or a sharp.
Okay, got it? Have you come up with what you think the best strategy is for using 1.5 run lines?

• The "square" way is to ask big favorites (those that are laying -200 or more on the regular moneyline) to win by more than 1.5 runs at a cheap price. The public LOVES doing this. They finally learned that you can't make money laying -200, -250, or even more on baseball favorites. But, they figure they can lay -120 to -140 on the same teams and ask for a blowout. Hey, a big favorite is supposed to win easily anyway, right? This approach can't miss! SQUARE!
  
  
• The "sharp" way is to take pre-game underdogs to hang close, laying a small to medium price at +1.5 runs in games played in pitcher's parks. One of the old sayings about baseball handicapping is "if you've got a true live dog, you're going to end up losing by one run." I first heard that 20 years ago. And, it's TRUE! Great underdog plays either win outright or lose heartbreakers more often than not. Sharp wagerers got tired of losing heartbreakers, and paid a bit extra to get that 1.5 runs on their side. Doing this in projected pitchers duels in low scoring parks can be very valuable because so many games end 3-2 or 4-3.

Now, what's happened over time is that oddsmakers took away some of this edge. They made it more expensive than it used to be to take those "live" dogs at +1.5 runs. There's still value. But, it used to be a gold mine for professional wagerers.
If you're like most gamblers, you were chomping at the bit to tell me that the best way to win is to lay 1.5 runs with teams like Boston and Detroit because they win so many blowouts. Well, great teams do have stretches where they win a lot of blowouts. But, over the course of the season, the number of one run victories is enough to cancel out the perceived edges most of the time. Yes, you're gut tells you that it's okay to lay 1.5 runs with Halladay or Santana, or any dominant pitcher. You've heard your whole life that pitching determines who wins. Now you've figured out a way to take those big name pitchers at affordable prices. Sorry, it just doesn't work out that way.
In the current landscape, I think these are the best strategies to use with 1.5 run lines:

• Only lay the 1.5 runs in high scoring parks. That's because variance is higher in terms of run production. You see more games ending with margins of two or more simply because the winning team has a big inning somewhere along the line that blows the doors open. Just remember that I'm not talking about one-sided pitching matchups here. I'm talking about ALL games. Some of the best value you can get is with teams who are roughly pick-em to win the game, but are +150 or +160 when laying 1.5 runs. If you like them to win, and the game is in a hitter's park, then there's real value in taking a shot at those tall returns. If you're going to win, you're probably going to win by at least two runs because of the variance.
  
  
• Only take the 1.5 runs in low scoring parks. Taking 1.5 runs in Arlington or Cincinnati is just going to have you yelling at the TV set during a 10-4 game. That +1.5 just isn't worth very much here. You want to focus on the pitchers parks, preferably with good pitchers on the mound. Taking the 1.5 runs is ideal in projected nailbiters that are likely to end with low scores.
  
  
• Either way, you want to focus on teams with good starting pitchers and good bullpens. That kind of goes without saying. I still see some people crossing their fingers with their favorite team no matter who's pitching. They don't trust the #5 guy in the rotation to win straight up. They're hoping he can keep the team close, so they take 1.5 runs and pay a premium. Look, if you don't trust the guy, don't bet on him period! If you're laying 1.5 runs in a game, you want to shut the opponents down to 3 runs or less. If you're taking 1.5 runs in a game, you want to keep the opponents from running away and hiding. That's good starters and good bullpens either way you slice it.
  
  
• Don't forget about middles! Last week I talked about this a bit. Always look for projected pitcher's duels that will lead to coin flip games. Some times you can relatively cheap prices on the road favorite to win straight up (laying about 130 or so), AND the home underdog in the same game at +1.5 runs (laying about 130 to get the extra run and a half). Boston and San Diego had a good matchup the other night in that price range, with Daisuke Matsuzaka for Boston going against Greg Maddux for San Diego. Boston won 2-1, and both parts of the proposition hit. Do that in just one out of five of your projected pitcher's duels and you'll make money.

If you've been playing the 1.5 run lines, I suggest you go back and grade your performances in those games. A lot of guys lose track of what they're doing because they play so much action. They'll place 16 bets on a night mixed between sides, totals, props, and run lines. If they go 8-8, they figure it all comes out in the wash. Over the week, it's probably no harm, no foul for most guys. A lot of uninformed bettors are hurting themselves without realizing it because they're not noticing a losing record when laying 1.5 runs. They ask, "did I win or did I lose?" then go to bed. Grade those run line bets. If you've been losing them, STOP BETTING THEM. If you've been winning them, look for characteristics that are causing the wins, then try to find more applications for them. It's silly to limit a winning strategy because you didn't notice it was doing so well. It's silly to keep playing a losing strategy because you didn't notice it was losing.
Best of luck playing 1.5 run lines the rest of the way."

[gushman]

Interesting article, nice read

[fataliz]

good luck today TA

[Full Time Hobo]

Good Read JR

TA I've been gone a little bit but its great to see you back in the Green
Never doubted you but everyone has been getting hit hard lately in Bases

Keep up the good work man and keep doin your thing

[TodaysAction]

1:05pm, CO, +129 BJM, 5.00/6.45

to those on this team and wager.

[dodger33]

On it Terry! This would be a nice start to the week!

[VegasPlayer]

Hopefully, the Rocks can put 9 solid innings together and finish one today.

[PickSix]

On it with you Terry! GL to all!

[lovetobet]

Just caught this one, go Rox.

Thanks TA

[TodaysAction]

good luck today TA

Thank you fataliz and to you as well.

Good Read JR

TA I've been gone a little bit but its great to see you back in the Green
Never doubted you but everyone has been getting hit hard lately in Bases

Keep up the good work man and keep doin your thing

Thank you Full Time Hobo, glad to see you're still around.

On it Terry! This would be a nice start to the week!

Thank you and you've got to be happy about that trade. Nice addition.

Hopefully, the Rocks can put 9 solid innings together and finish one today.

It's about time they play a full game again.

On it with you Terry! GL to all!

Let's cash it then.

Just caught this one, go Rox.

Thanks TA

Glad you got it and you're welcome.

[Ditaln1]

Good luck as always Terry, On it with you.

-Igor

[TonyP]

Great read JR thanks

[TodaysAction]

Good Morning Gentlemen.....good luck with the house TA.....

Thanks JR007, there is more damage done than originally thought and it's going to be an ugly mess for a while until we get a few more fellas to help. Rough time table is completion Friday afternoon and that's if we don't get any more rain.

Also, many thanks for sharing those articles and worth the read.

[TonyP]

1:05pm, CO, +129 BJM, 5.00/6.45

to those on this team and wager.

on it TA good luck

[DaProfessor23]

Glad to see you went with something i already had . sorta like re-insurance lol . BOL

[VegasPlayer]

Haren is going for the Angels tonight. Might be some value on the Sox similar to what we saw with Cliff Lee. Looks like Saunders was popular on that team, coming home after a road trip that ended with a bad series. New surroundings etc, etc. He should help the rotation, but still a 4.5 ERA in the weak hitting NL West - not so sure.

[Sactown]

July Challenge Log

* 1st: 1-5-0, 16.67%, -6.82 units, 1-5-0, 16.67%, -6.82 units
* 2nd: 5-2-1, 71.43%, +10.76 units, 6-7-1, 46.15%, +3.94 units
* 3rd: 4-0-0, 100.00%, +14.00 units, 10-7-1, 58.82%, +17.94 units
* 4th: 2-0-0, 100.00%, +3.20 units, 12-7-1, 63.16%, +21.14 units
* 5th: 1-0-0, 100.00%, +4.00 units, 13-7-1, 65%, +25.14 units
* 6th: 3-0-0, 100.00%, +3.00 units, 16-7-1, 69.57%, +28.14 units
* 7th: 1-1-0, 50.00%, -0.02 units, 17-8-1, 68.00%, +28.12 units
* 8th: 2-1-0, 66.67%, +2.04 units, 19-9-1, 67.86%, +30.16 units
* 9th: 3-1-0, 75.00%, +6.00 units, 22-10-1, 68.75%, +36.16 units
* 10th: 2-3-0, 40.00%, -2.76 units, 24-13-1, 64.86%, +33.40 units
* 11th: 1-1-0, 50.00%, -0.80 units, 25-14-1, 64.10%, +32.60 units
* 12th: 0-0-0, N/A, Even, 25-14-1, 64.10%, +32.60 units
* 13th: 0-0-0, N/A, Even, 25-14-1, 64.10%, +32.60 units
* 14th: 0-0-0, N/A, Even, 25-14-1, 64.10%, +32.60 units
* 15th: 4-3-0, 54.14%, +0.84 units, 29-17-1, 63.04%, +33.44 units
* 16th: 3-3-0, 50.00%, +0.26 units, 32-20-1, 61.54%, +33.70 units
* 17th: 3-2-0, 60.00%, -11.25 units, 35-22-1, 61.40%, +22.45 units
* 18th: 3-2-0, 60.00%, -9.76 units, 38-24-1, 61.29%, +12.69 units
* 19th: 1-1-0, 50.00%, - 6.50 units, 39-25-1, 60.94%, +6.19 units
* 20th: 4-4-0, 50.00%, -10.70 units, 43-29-1, 59.72%, -4.51 units
* 21st: 4-0-0, 100.00%, +14.10 units, 47-29-1, 61.84%, +9.59 units
* 22nd: 2-1-0, 66.67%, +1.33 units, 49-30-1, 62.03%, +10.92 units
* 23rd: 1-0-0, 100.00%, +1.00 unit, 50-30-1, 62.50%, +11.92 units
* 24th: 3-1-0, 75.00%, +3.56 units, 53-31-1, 63.10%, +15.48 units
* 25th: 2-2-0, 50.00%, -0.45 units, 55-33-1, 62.50%, +15.03 units
* 26th: TBA
* 27th: TBA
* 28th: TBA
* 29th: TBA
* 30th: TBA
* 31st: TBA

August 1, 2010: Pay day!

23 of the 25 days, units have been positive for the month (92.00%).

TA,

First off, been a follower for a while here and wanted to say THANKS for sharing your picks with us on a daily basis. I know there are always guys who come in here and hate on you whenever things go bad for a couple day stretch. I think you do a hell of a job capping and using your system and have made me a good chunk of change.

There is a "good" correction you should make to your sig. In you 2nd half you have yourself down as 2H: 30-20-1, 60.00%, -27.57 units. I believe from just doing the math from your July Challenge log that you should be only down 17.57 units. Going into the all star break you were 32.60 units in the positive and are at 15.03 units in the positive since the 2nd half started putting you at -17.57.

Hope that is correct! Keep up the good work and your unselfish ways

[VegasPlayer]

Hopefully, the Rocks can put 9 solid innings together and finish one today.

OOF!! - Left em loaded in the 9th 2 days in a row with the right guy at the plate! Ouch!!

[PickSix]

Tough start to the day. There was a chance that Lidge was going to blow it. You can't win them all. On to the rest of the day...

[JR007]

Thanks guys...anything I can do to help......beware of those streaks....I know that i am repeating myself...but........

[VegasPlayer]

Thanks guys...anything I can do to help......beware of those streaks....I know that i am repeating myself...but........

Yes, seems to have been an abnormal number of streaks this season. I didn't run into this kind of stuff until September last year. A good warning indeed. Off to the job - Good luck tonight everyone.

[DragonTrigger]

Thanks guys...anything I can do to help......beware of those streaks....I know that i am repeating myself...but........

As per the article you posted which was very good, can you or someone list the low scoring parks? Thanks in advance.

[lovetobet]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

[JR007]

Yes, seems to have been an abnormal number of streaks this season. I didn't run into this kind of stuff until September last year. A good warning indeed. Off to the job - Good luck tonight everyone.

With all due respect to TA and other cappers in this forum...I think that there is too much randomness ie( noise)...attendant with them......thus making them uncappable

[danrman]

Haren is going for the Angels tonight. Might be some value on the Sox similar to what we saw with Cliff Lee. Looks like Saunders was popular on that team, coming home after a road trip that ended with a bad series. New surroundings etc, etc. He should help the rotation, but still a 4.5 ERA in the weak hitting NL West - not so sure.

i couldnt have said it better not to mention he is a home run machine

[TodaysAction]

Glad to see you went with something i already had . sorta like re-insurance lol . BOL

Refreshing DaProfesor23 to learn that but unfortunately, the early lost lost.

Tough start to the day. There was a chance that Lidge was going to blow it. You can't win them all. On to the rest of the day...

It happens. We start tonight down five units but have at least four actions for this evening to be listed shortly.

[JR007]

Good luck tonight Guys

[TodaysAction]

7:05pm, Darth Vader, -168 P,
7:07pm, TOR, -210 5D,
8:10pm, CIN, +104 P,
8:10pm, CWS, -121 5D,

to those on these teams and wagers.